2009 Team Outlook: Jacksonville

After a very promising 2007 season where Jacksonville finished with an 11-5 record and made the playoffs, they went in the total opposite direction last season, finishing with a 5-11 record. The Jags built up that 11-5 record with the help of their 7^th ranked offense (averaging 357 yards per game), which was due in large part because they finished with the 2^nd best rushing attack in the NFL (149.4 yards per game). In 2008 those numbers fell drastically, finishing 20^th in total offense (319.1 yards per game), not to mention an even bigger drop in rushing, falling to 18^th in the NFL (110.9 yards per game). The Jags wanted to try to balance out the offense so they tried to make a splash by acquiring two underachieving receivers (Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson) in the hopes they would help open up the offense. Those 2 ended up being huge busts, and Porter was released after the season. Even though QB David Garrard played in all 16 games for the first time in his career, all of his numbers took a hit (other then yards passing-- and that only went up because he played in more games). Jacksonville did very little to improve its offense, unless you count parting ways with longtime running back Fred Taylor, Matt Jones (who, even though he had his best season, could never stay out of trouble) and Porter. The Jags don't have much in the way of solid fantasy performers. Other then Maurice Jones-Drew (who might end up being a top 5 fantasy back when all is said and done), the only other players you would consider drafting are Torry Holt (who was signed in the off season) and TE Mercedes Lewis; neither of them are worthy of being drafted till the later rounds.

Camp Watch

Nothing much has changed, other then MJD (who is a top 5 fantasy pick), the Jacksonville Jaguars are not a team you should worry much about when it comes to fantasy players. They are a run first team and MJD does so much on offense that it takes away from all the other players and cuts into their production. The most important thing to follow might be who gets the job as MJD back up, this being MJD's first season as the main guy, you never know how he will handle the rigors of all the extra carries and hits he will take. Having his handcuff could prove very useful down the line. The only rookie with possible fantasy implication is wide receiver Mike Thomas, and he is signed and in camp, ready to show he can make a difference.

QB David Garrard, NYJ - Deep-league Only

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In his first full season as a starter in 2007, Garrard helped lead the Jags to the playoffs behind some stellar passing numbers. While only playing in 12 games due to injury, he was able to set a career high in passing yards (2509 yards) as well as passing for 18 touchdowns, with only 3 interceptions. Unfortunately 2008 was a disaster for him, and the only stat that improved was his passing yards (3620) and that was due in part because he played 4 more games (mostly because Jacksonville was losing all year and playing from behind). Even though Garrard attempted 210 more passes in 2008, his touchdown total fell from 18 to 15, while his interceptions went up from 3 to 13. Without much help, Garrard isn't worth drafting.

August 5th, 2009

Garrard just doesn't have the weapons to be a top 10 fantasy QB; he is better suited as a back-up or byeweek fill-in.

RB Rashad Jennings, --- - Fantasy Handcuff

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It's not easy to make your mark when you're a 7^th round pick and coming out of Division 1-AA Liberty University, but coming out of OTA's he was the best player on offense. He is a big strong powerful back, with some speed, who will be competing with Greg Jones for the #2 spot behind MJD. As we saw when Fred Taylor was on the squad, the Jags believe in using 2 backs to keep both fresh for the end of the game and the end of the season. If Jennings wins the back up job he should be taken as MJD's handcuff. Watch this battle through training camp.

RB Greg Jones, --- - Fantasy Handcuff

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With Fred Taylor gone, someone new will have to step into role as a change of pace runner to keep MJD fresh. 2^nd year man Chauncey Washington and rookie Rashard Jennings will both get long looks, but don't be surprised if veteran Greg Jones get the nod as #2 on the depth chart. While MJD is small, fast and shifty, Jones is a big powerful runner who spent most of 2008 as the team's fullback (making him a good choice to compliment MJD). Follow him during training camp, but he makes a wise choice as a late round pick and handcuff for MJD.

August 5, 2009

At the start of training camp it appears that the battle for the #2 running back will be between Jones and Rookie Rashad Jennings. Jones has the experience and power to compliment MJD, but Jennings is younger and more explosive. This is a battle worth watching.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew, --- - Stud (low risk)

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With Fred Taylor gone, MJD will finally get a chance to carry the load and there is no reason to believe he won't be able to handle it. Over his first 3 years in the NFL, MJD has averaged 844 yards and 11.3 touchdowns rushing, all the while splitting carries with Taylor. Just imagine what he will do without having to share the ball? What makes MJD even more valuable is that he is a great receiver as well, catching 148 passes for a total of 1408 yards and 4 touchdowns. With all the numbers MJD puts up, he should be a top 12 pick in all formats, and maybe even a top 5 pick in point per reception leagues.

August 5, 2009

MJD has put on some extra weight this off season to help him handle being an every down back. With all the extra carries he will get, MJD should be a top 5 fantasy runner; in point per reception leagues (ppr) he could go as high as 1 or 2.

WR Torry Holt, --- - Quality Backup

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After playing his entire 10 year career for the Rams, St. Louis parted ways with Torry Holt this past off season and he signed with Jacksonville. 2008 was Holt's worst season since his rookie year, catching only 64 passes for a total of 796 yards (the first time since his rookie season that he didn't surpass 1000 receiving yards) and a career low 3 touchdowns. He was brought into Jacksonville to be Garrard's #1 receiver (and should have no problem doing that with the competition he will face), but don't expect the old Holt to show up. He has definitely lost some of his speed and is probably more of a possession receiver at this point. I wouldn't spend anything more then a mid-to-late round pick on him.

August 5, 2009

Holt is being held to once a day practices for the first week of training camp due to a knee injury. It's nothing serious, but Holt had surgery on the knee before the 2008 season and that could be part of the reason his production fell so much. The Jags aren't that worried and Holt will still be the #1 receiver for them.