2009 Team Outlook: Baltimore
For a team with a first-year coach and first-year quarterback to reach the AFC Championship is rather remarkable; led by their all-world defense, the Ravens were able to do exactly that. John Harbaugh replaced Brian Billick on the sidelines and circumstances thrust Joe Flacco into the opening game huddle and with a strong ground game and killer defense to rally around, the Ravens went from 5-11 to 11-5 and within one game of the Super Bowl. Now the question is whether the offense can become an equal partner to a defense that hopes to remain at an elite level for another season.
Attitude is everything when it comes to the Ravens and it all starts with Ray Lewis, the most dominant linebacker and defender of his generation. The franchise has been largely defined by the defense over the past decade with Lewis leading the way, though one wonders how much longer the 34-year old can play at such a high level. Even though he lost his inside backer running mate Bart Scott to free agency this offseason, Lewis still has plenty of warriors along side him to go into battle with -- most notably pass rusher Terrell Suggs, free safety and ball magnet Ed Reed and run stuffer Haloti Ngata. CB Domonique Foxworth was added as a solid addition to the Ravens' ordinary set of corners and second-year LB Tavares Gooden has the inside track at replacing Scott and becoming the latest player to benefit from lining up next to Ray-Ray. The defense was ranked fifth in total defense a season ago and fantasy owners should be salivating at the chance to add this turnover-generating, touchdown-scoring unit if possible.
On the other side of the ball, the aggressive vibe remains the same, though the overall results are more pedestrian in nature (especially through the air). Rookie Joe Flacco made a seamless transition from Div 1-AA to the NFL and his future as an NFL starter looks very bright. He has already shown that he can make all the throws and his poise in the pocket was impressive, but calling Flacco a fantasy star is another story. The Ravens tried to keep the pressure off their young QB by emphasizing their strong ground game and that is expected to be the tactic going forward. Led by Willis McGahee, Le'Ron McClain and Ray Rice, the Ravens perfectly balance their ferocious defense with a ball-controlled scheme. That three-headed attack should continue in '09, though McGahee is closer to the end (at least with the Ravens), while Rice should see an increase in touches and McClain maintains his role as short yardage go-to guy.
Veteran stalwart Derrick Mason, now back from a brief retirement, leads a so-so receiving unit that will be without their big play threat, Mark Clayton, for likely the remainder of the preseason due to a hamstring injury. The Ravens did not draft a receiver in part because they hope Demetrius Williams can return from injuries and provide another deep threat. All three wide outs are free agents after the upcoming season so there will be plenty of motivation to go around. Second-year receiver Justin Harper could slide into the rotation if he continues to impress in training camp and fellow young wide out Marcus Smith is right behind him.
TE Todd Heap managed to stay healthy last season, but his role is morphing from top receiving target to blocker, in large part to help the Ravens youthful line (which will get younger with the addition of first-round pick OT Michael Oher). Free agent L.J. Smith was added in the off-season to provide Flacco with another tight end option and likely is the best fantasy tight end on the club.
The Ravens' defense-first style of play keeps them in most games and they hope the offense is strong enough most weeks to get the job done. Whether Flacco takes the next step towards becoming the long-term answer at quarterback or suffers a sophomore slump will largely define the season, though another postseason appearance is well within their grasp. There is enough evidence to believe that Flacco is the real deal and that despite some turnover, the defense will once again be a scary unit, but ultimately the offense needs to generate more production for the team to reach the next round of playoffs. If the football gods have a heart, that will happen before Ray Lewis hangs 'em up. Based on the reality on the ground, that means hopefully Lewis plays at least into 2010.
QB Joe Flacco, NYJ - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
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Along with Matt Ryan, Flacco was the rare rookie able to step in , start and contribute essentially off the bat for a playoff-bound team. His composure and arm strength were on display from the start and the Ravens got within one one game of the Super Bowl with him at the helm, but fantasy owners were not nearly as enthusiastic about the former Delaware Blue Hen. The Ravens were already operating a rather conservative offense and they may have taken that to another level by running early and often to help protect their young passer, who finished with 14 touchdowns and 2,971 yards. Flacco had only five games with more than 200 passing yards and the lack of game breakers among his receiving corps makes it hard to believe that that number will rise significantly. The Ravens' offensive line has a good chance to be better this season and Flacco enters the '09 season with more experience under his belt, but the ground game remains the focus and the overall scenario makes his fantasy value no more than a QB2.
8/30: Flacco was red hot in the Ravens' 17-13 win over the Panthers, completing 23-of-28 passes for 247 yards and one touchdown. With the second-year passer at the helm, the Ravens scored touchdowns on drives of 80 and 90 yards with Derrick Mason catching six passes for 71 yards and Todd Heap hauling in a 9-yard score. While the conservative nature of the Ravens' offense is likely to remain during the season, they are showing signs of opening up the attack for the strong-armed Flacco, who is moving up the ranks of QB2 options.
QB Troy Smith, --- - Deep-league Only
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Talking about a backup quarterback -- especially one playing in a conservative offense like the Ravens -- is not that exciting, but Smith has a chance to be a decent QB2 option if current starter Joe Flacco suffers a sophomore slump. The 2006 Heisman Trophy winner looked like he would be the opening week starter last year before tonsillitis put him on the sideline and gave the rookie Flacco the job, one he did not relinquish. The mobile Smith was used at times as the Ravens' "wildcat" QB, a skill that would likely be his calling card if he moved under center on a regular basis as he has an effective, but not a terribly strong arm. There is no reason to think Flacco will lose the job, though he reportedly has struggled early in training camp. Unless you are in the deepest of deep leagues and want Smith as a Flacco handcuff, the former Ohio State star should be left for the waiver wire. If Smith gets the call, expect a stat line in the neighborhood of 13-19, 175 yards, one TD with 20-30 rush yards sprinkled in. Like I said, not exciting, but his feet will ensure you get points each week if he plays.
RB Le'Ron McClain, --- - Bye Week Fill-in
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Le'Ron McClain went from being an anonymous fullback to becoming a viable fantasy option throughout much of the '08 season, but now is going back to lining as a blocker. Getting an opportunity with Willis McGahee out with injuries, the powerful McClain started strong and ended up leading the Ravens with 902 rush yards and 11 touchdowns, proving to be highly effective near the end zone. After four scores by Week four, the battering ram returned to his secondary role when McGahee returned, but McClain was the workhorse down the stretch with five straight games of 20+ attempts to close out the season -- including a standout 22-139-1 effort against the Cowboys in Week 16. The Ravens have indicated they plan on moving McClain back to the more traditional fullback role for the upcoming season and while his yardage could take a major dip, he should continue to receive plenty of opportunities around the goal line. Monitor the Ravens' backfield situation in camp, but expect to draft McClain as a reserve/flex option and McGahee/Rice owners can add him as handcuff as well.
RB Willis McGahee, --- - Bust (overvalued)
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There were good moments in Willis McGahee's 2008 season, but the negatives outweighed the positives and all the data is trending towards this being his final season in Charm City. In fact, if the Ravens would not take a substantial cap hit this season, the McGahee era would likely already be over, but for now he remains in the mix and de facto starter heading into the season. Following a pre-season knee surgery last year, McGahee flashed his previous slash and dash style at times, racking up three 100-yard games and scoring seven touchdowns; however, his overall rush total of 671 yards represented a career-low. Down the stretch, the Ravens went with the power running Le'Ron McClain as their primary runner and then to add injury to insult, McGahee was carted off the field in the AFC Championship game. That injury was not as bad as it looked, but McGahee had additional arthroscopic ankle surgery this offseason. McClain figures to remain the Ravens' goal line back and second-year back Ray Rice is only going to get more touches, meaning McGahee's "starter" tag is mostly in name only. The Ravens will run the ball early and often so there figures to be plenty of touches to go around, but not enough to consider McGahee as anything more than a spot fantasy starter at best. The overall situation makes McGahee a risky choice (even in that role) and a slow start could have him buried on the depth chart.
RB Ray Rice, --- - Sleeper (undervalued)
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It is almost hard to call Rice a "sleeper" considering he is getting picked as early as the fourth round in some mocks, but since the masses may not be there quite yet, we'll stick with that tag. As part of the Ravens' crowded backfield, Rice did not have the volume of touches that many of his fellow rookies enjoyed, but his time is coming. Rice rushed 107 times for 454 yards (including a monster 21-154 performance in Week nine), while hauling in 33 receptions. The Ravens are talking about using a split backfield, and Rice is getting the early nod as starter over the oft-injured Willis McGahee (who is coming off another surgery and likely is a cap casualty after this campaign). The second-year back is surprisingly effective running inside -- though LeRon McClain will likely get the goal line carries despite moving to fullback -- and Rice has plenty of speed to get to the outside. The presence of the other two backs will be an annoyance, but the more time Rice gets to show his wares with the first-team, the easier it will be for the Ravens' brass to envision the changing of the guard. Those in keeper leagues and PPR leagues should bump Rice up on their draft boards as he has a chance to be a solid RB3 this year.
