2024 Minnesota Vikings Outlook

The Vikings took a step back in Kevin O'Connell's second season, dropping from 13-4 to 7-10. In his third season at the helm, OConnell must contend with breaking in a brand new franchise signal caller, running back, and quickly develop auxiliary weapons for Minnesota to return to the NFC playoff picture. If the 2024 NFL Draft is an indicator, the Vikes are in good shape.

Everything fell right into place for O'Connell and company. They held tight and were able to select J.J. McCarthy to replace Kirk Cousins under center. McCarthy was widely considered the most pro-ready quarterback in this deep 2024 class made for O'Connell's offense.

McCarthy is highly accurate with a strong arm, underrated athleticism, and has experience in a pro-style offense. Minnesota has ranked inside the top 4 in pass attempts in each of O'Connell's seasons as head coach. McCarthy is in a good scheme behind an excellent pass-blocking unit. He has the potential to hit the ground running and be an effective fantasy asset right away.

In the backfield, Aaron Jones was signed to add stability. Jones turns 30 this season and isn't the player he once was. But he still ranked as the RB25 in fantasy points per game last season and can be a solid contributor as a receiver. Ty Chandler started to assert himself down the stretch last season and will also mix in the new committee backfield.

Justin Jefferson missed seven games but ranked fourth in fantasy points per game. Jefferson exceeded 10 targets in seven of his 10 contests and is already the betting favorite to lead the NFL in that category in 2024. The only concern for the dynamic superstar wideout is building a new rapport with a rookie signal caller.

2023 first-rounder Jordan Addison was terrific as a rookie, posting a 70/911/10 line on 108 targets. Like his teammate, Addison's 2024 fantasy value is dependent on a rookie passer who will undoubtedly be helped by one of the league's top tandems.

With the Vikings being such a good source of volume the WR3 battle is worth monitoring. Brandon Powell, Trent Sherfield, and Jalen Nailor will compete for a role that saw K.J. Osborn post top-60 fantasy numbers last year.

TE T.J. Hockenson tore his right ACL and MCL on Christmas Eve. As terrific as Hockeson was, ranking second among all tight ends in targets (127) and receptions (95), he's recovering from a devastating injury that occurred late in the year. That makes him a risk/reward proposition in 2024.

The Vikings are top-heavy but have a very fantasy-friendly offense and schedule. However, there is a lot of risk associated with relying on a first-year signal caller.

QB Sam Darnold, SEA - Quality Backup

With J.J. McCarthy now set to miss the entire 2024 season, Darnold becomes an interesting add in Superflex leagues. Last year, Darnold completed 28-of-46 attempts for the NFC Champions, totaling three TDs and 1 INT. In five season with the Jets and Panthers, Darnold posted modest fantasy numbers, regularly getting off to a fast start before inevitably plummeting. The Vikings want to throw a ton, which opens the door for Darnold to get off to another quick start. However, we don't have much confidence in his ability to hold onto the gig all season. View Darnold as a middling QB2 in Superflex leagues.

QB J.J. McCarthy, MIN - Dynasty Only

J.J. McCarthy checks all the boxes to be a successful NFL quarterback immediately. He's accurate, has experience thriving in a pro-style offense, is a winner, and landed in a great situation. Since hiring Kevin O'Connell, the Vikings have ranked third and fourth in the NFL in passing attempts. Minnesota also boasts a pair of elite young wideouts, Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, a pass-catching back and top-5 tight end. McCarthy is well-versed in going through progressions and ranked fifth in FBS last season in adjusted completion rate. He should be an excellent fit in O'Connell's system and could be a sneaky pick to post solid QB2 numbers right away. ADVICE: Late-round sleeper target UPDATE: McCarthy underwent knee surgery and will miss the entire 2024 season. Obviously, he is only relevant in dynasty formats.

RB Aaron Jones, MIN - Solid/Safe Pick

The Packers gave up on Aaron Jones but fantasy managers shouldn't. Jones battled hamstring and knee injuries last season but became an integral part of Green Bay's playoff push. He averaged 22.6 touches per game in the Packers' final five, producing 18.2 fantasy points. Jones still showcased excellent speed and remains a solid receiver out of the backfield. He should lead Minnesota's 1-2 punch with Ty Chandler. And Jones has already circled those two games against the Packers on his calendar. If he can stay healthy, Jones will contend for RB2 numbers in a Minnesota offense that has ranked top 10 in each of Kevin O'Connell's seasons on the sidelines. ADVICE: RB2 who will have some boom weeks

RB Ty Chandler, MIN - Fantasy Handcuff

Ty Chandler's considerable sleeper appeal took a big hit when the Vikings signed Aaron Jones. But there still may be enough meat left of the bone for Chandler to have some value. Jones has always been used in a timeshare and tends to be more effective in the 14-17 touch range. That leaves plenty of opportunities for Chandler to carry over his solid play down the stretch. In Minnesota's final five games, Chandler averaged 12 fantasy points per game, ranking as the RB23 during the period. ADVICE: Chandler could have more of a weekly role than many project and it's fairly easy to handcuff him with Aaron Jones

WR Justin Jefferson, MIN - Stud (low risk)

On the surface, Justin Jefferson had a disappointing season. However, Jefferson missed seven games and didn't have Kirk Cousins for half the season, yet still produced the fifth-most fantasy points per game at WR. Jefferson actually had the top yards per route run (2.91) and ADOT (13.5) numbers of his career but his yards after catch and catch rate plummeted due to erratic QB play. Jefferson remains an elite talent but his 2024 value hinges on his ability to quickly develop a rapport with J.J. McCarthy. considering the Vikings have been top-4 in passing attempts in both of Kevin O'Connell's seasons, Jefferson remains an elite, Tier-1 WR. ADVICE: Top-5 wideout in all formats

WR Jordan Addison, MIN - Bust (overvalued)

Jordan Addison had a strong rookie season, hauling in 70 receptions for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns with a 17% target share. His reliable performance translated to an average of 11 fantasy points per game, earning him the WR28 overall ranking. However, his 2024 fantasy outlook is clouded by uncertainty at the quarterback position following Kirk Cousins' departure. On the bright side, the injury to T.J. Hockenson could elevate Addison's role in the offense early in the season. However, the seaon-ending injury to J.J. McCarthy all but kills any momentum Addison had. Additionally, a preseason injury raises other concerns. Based on people overpaying for those 10 TDs last season, Addison is ripe to disappoint in Year Two.