2024 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team Outlook
Tampa Bay entered the 2023 season with the fifth-lowest Super Bowl odds. However, Todd Bowles coached the Buccaneers to their second-consecutive NFC South title and an upset win in the playoffs in Philadelphia. After re-signing Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, the Bucs are running it back in 2024, which is great news for fantasy football fans.
Mayfield set career-high numbers in every notable passing category under the tutelage of Dave Canales. Canales parlayed that into a gig leading the division-rival Panthers. In his place, Bowles hired Liam Cohen from Kentucky. The change of play-callers is a major concern for Mayfield.
Another issue is relying on a player who posts career-best numbers in a contract year. Mayfield progressively got worse in his first five seasons before exploding in 2023. Rather than expecting a repeat of his QB11 finish, fantasy managers should view Mayfield as merely a modest QB2 to target in Superflex formats.
RB Rachaad White thrived in his second season. White posted overall RB4 numbers thanks to his receiving prowess. He ranked fourth among all running backs with 64 grabs and produced double-digit fantasy points in 15-of-19 games. The Bucs added Oregon RB Bucky Irving in the fourth round, which makes White's volume share less certain.
Retaining Mike Evans was hugely important for Tampa. Evans (31 in August) posted his 10th-straight campaign with 1,000-plus receiving yards. His 13 touchdown grabs also tied for the league lead. Entering his 11th NFL season, Evans remains a consistent producer with an excellent rapport with his quarterback. View the veteran wideout as an excellent fantasy option in the third or fourth round.
Chris Godwin gave Tampa a pair of top-20 fantasy wide receivers. Godwin has topped 125 targets and 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. Yet, the 28-year-old veteran continues to be overlooked on draft day. He should once again bring a positive return on investment in 2024.
Trey Palmer hauled in 39-of-68 targets during his rookie year but will have to compete with talented third-round rookie wideout Jalen McMillan for WR3 duties. 55.4% of Palmer's 2023 routes came from the slot, an area that McMillian is projected to play.
Cade Otton led all tight ends with a massive 96.5% snap share. However, he ranked 21st with a 12.2% target share and scored fewer than 10 PPR points in Tampa's final nine regular-season games. Unless Cohen makes drastic changes to Tampa's offensive philosophy, Otton is merely a low-upside fantasy TE2.
There are a lot of questions about Tampa's ability to carry over their surprising success from last season. However, the Bucs boast a pair of solid wideouts and a young running back worth prioritizing in the early rounds.
QB Baker Mayfield, TB - Bye Week Fill-in
Everything clicked for Mayfield in Tampa, resulting in his finest pro season and a lucrative new $100 million contract. Tampa also re-signed Mike Evans, which does well for the club's 2024 prospects. However, Dave Canales is now in Carolina, which leaves the Bucs' offense in the hands of a first-time offensive coordinator. Even in his career-rejuvenating 2023 showing, Mayfield only ranked 18th in fantasy points per game. The Browns, Panthers, and Rams have all let Mayfield walk and he was never the top choice for the Bucs. Last season was a good story but it would not be a surprise to see Mayfield regress. ADVICE: Likely to be overdrafted QB2
RB Bucky Irving, TB - Fantasy Handcuff
ADVICE: Rachaad White ranked second with a massive 73.9% snap share last season for a Tampa offense that ranked last in rushing. A fourth-round rookie out of Oregon, Irving has a real shot at having a significant role immediately, especially in the passing game.
RB Rachaad White, WAS - Solid/Safe Pick
Last year, Rachaad White put the 'work' in workhorse. White ranked fourth among all running backs with a 77.4% snap share and ranked second with 336 touches. His 64 grabs and 549 receiving yards also ranked third. Volume was key in White's ascension but fourth-round Oregon rookie Bucky Irving is expected to push for immediate playing time in Tampa. White doesn't force many broken tackles or produce a ton of breakaway runs, so a loss in volume share would significantly impact his odds of repeating last season's success. View White as a solid RB1 but don't overpay for last year's gaudy production. ADVICE: RB1 but candidate to be overvalued
RB Chase Edmonds, WAS - Low Potential
Rachaad White led all running backs with a 78.1% snap share. After investing in Oregon rookie Bucky Irving, there won't be a lot of playing time left for Edmonds to make much, if any, impact,
WR Mike Evans, SF - Solid/Safe Pick
Evans extended his streak as the first NFL wide receiver to start his career with ten straight 1,000-yard seasons. Evans excelled during Baker Mayfield's first season with Tampa Bay in 2023, achieving top-three career rankings in target rate (23.5%), yards per route run (YPRR, 2.33), yards after the catch per reception (4.1), and NFL passer rating when targeted (115.4). The Bucs brought back Evans and Mayfield this offseason with contract extensions in hopes they can keep rolling in 2024. ADVICE: Given his skill, rapport with his quarterback, and the competition for targets, Evans is a solid third-round investment
WR Chris Godwin, TB - Solid/Safe Pick
Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin was the clear WR2 in an offense that featured Mike Evans in the passing game. Godwin has transitioned into more of a check-down receiver, with his 9.0 average depth of target (aDOT) ranking outside the top 75 last season. Although his target share slightly increased to 23.8%, the significant drop in overall passing volume from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield was catastrophic for Godwin's fantasy impact. This year, Godwin's draft cost is significantly lower, making him a more appealing value pick. He is even being drafted below where he finished last season, offering some value. ADVICE: Solid value pick with reliable volume but limited upside
