2024 New Orleans Saints Team Outlook
The 2023 Saints were top-10 in points scored and allowed but came up just short of the NFC playoffs at 9-8. In his third season at the helm, Dennis Allen will need to get his team over the hump by getting the Saints back into the postseason for the first time since 2020.
Derek Carr's first season in New Orleans juxtaposed nicely with his previous campaigns in Oakland and Las Vegas. Carr stays healthy and posts consistent, unassuming numbers. He doesn't have enough upside to warrant a starting fantasy spot, but Carr can be a solid if unspectacular QB2 to target in Superflex leagues.
After missing the first three games of the season due to a suspension, Alvin Kamara proved to be an excellent mid-round value. Kamara ranked 5th in PPR points per game. Entering his age 29 season, Kamara's efficiency numbers have started to slide. However, he remains a high-volume receiver with little competition for touches. That keeps him on the RB1 radar as a solid fantasy target in the fourth or fifth round.
Jamaal Williams was the team's least efficient back last season. One year after leading the NFL in touchdowns, Williams made no impact even with Kamara missing four games. Second-year runner Kendre Miller looked good in the season finale and is the clear handcuff for Kamara drafters.
Chris Olave ranked 12th in targets (138) and target share (25.6%). With the departure of Michael Thomas and his 12% target share, Olave is in prime position to enter the top 10 in his third season. 100 receptions and 1,300 yards are reasonable expectations for Olave in 2024.
Like Olave, Rashid Shaheed continues to improve and will stand to benefit from Thomas's departure. Shaheed's 13.1 ADOT ranked fourth among all wideouts but he would stand to benefit from better consistency. Shaheed had six games with 15-plus fantasy points and nine outings with single-digit production.
New Orleans signed Cedrick Wilson as depth and used fifth-rounder on Pitt WR Bub Means. They will compete with A.T. Perry for WR3 duties.
Juwan Johnson is a middling fantasy TE2 who is touchdown-dependant. He only topped 50 receiving yards once last season and regularly ceded valuable red-zone snaps to Taysom Hil. Hill also usurped fantasy production from Kamara and Carr but his role makes the veteran jack-of-all-trades an intriguing late-round pick in leagues where he is still classified as a tight end.
The Saints will contend for the NFC playoffs but are unlikely to be serious threats to win it all. Their fantasy options are on a similar trajectory. Chris Olave and Alvin Kamara can deliver the goods but the rest of the lineup is more uncertain.
QB Derek Carr, --- - Bye Week Fill-in
Carr's first season in New Orleans was right in line with his career totals. The 33-year-old veteran produced weekly QB1 numbers in only six of his 17 starts. Conversely, Carr also failed to pass for even 200 yards in six games. His rushing production and weekly fantasy value have now declined in four consecutive seasons. Additionally, Carr loses valuable red-zone reps to Taysom Hill, further limiting his upside. The ceiling is limited and Carr's erratic weekly production makes him an unreliable fantasy option. He is little more than a middling QB2 in Superflex leagues. ADVICE: Lesser QB2 with limited upside
RB Alvin Kamara, NO - Solid/Safe Pick
Despite missing four games, Alvin Kamara was one of the top values last season. He ranked second with 86 targets, hauling in multiple receptions in every game. Kamara scored double-digit fantasy points in his first 11 contests. The receiving volume is a plus, but Kamara is on a four-year decline in missed tackles forced and yards created after contact. There's a chance his running efficiency could fall off a cliff. The Saints didn't address running back, so Kamara's role appears safe. Considering he posted RB5 points per game numbers, that's good news. Hopefully, he's got one more good season in him. ADVICE: Excellent Value as Receiver but a Declining Runner on RB1/2 borderline
RB Kendre Miller, NO - Fantasy Handcuff
Injuries sabotaged Miller's rookie season, limiting him to just eight games. However, he looked solid with one spot start in the season finale, turning 13 carries into 73 yards (5.6 yards per carry) and his lone touchdown. Miller also hauled in 10 of his 11 targets, which puts him in a position to be the Saints' primary running back if Alvin Kamara misses time. He's a late-round handcuff to target for fantasy managers who have deeper rosters. ADVICE: May not have a significant weekly role but one of the better handcuff backs to target late
Injury Status: Out - HamstringRB Jamaal Williams, --- - Deep-league Only
ADVICE: It was quite a fall for Williams, who went from leading the NFL in touchdowns to just one controversial score in New Orleans. Kendre Miller is projected to be the Saints' change-of-pace back, so Williams is barely on the fantasy radar.
WR Chris Olave, NO - Stud (low risk)
Olave's usage metrics were outstanding, commanding a 25% target share and 40% air yards share, and totaling over 1,800 air yards. Despite Olave's talent indicating he should be a fantasy WR1, he is projected to be a WR2 in 2024 with Derek Carr returning as quarterback. However, the pair showed signs of improvement in the latter part of the season post-bye week. Olave ranked second in catchable target rate (89%) with a 12.0 average depth of target (ADOT). ADVICE: Olave's talent alone positions him as a low-end fantasy WR2. If his chemistry with Carr continues into the next season, Olave has the potential to elevate to a WR1.
WR Rashid Shaheed, NO - Sleeper (undervalued)
Shaheed posted top 20 numbers in points per target (2.07), yards per target (9.6), and yards per catch (15.6) despite seeing just a 13.9% target share in New Orleans. With Michael Thomas (64 targets, 11.9% share) gone, Shaheed will now be counted on to play a larger weekly role in the Saints' offense. In games where he received more than five targets, Shaheed averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game- solid WR3 numbers. With an expanding role, Shaheed offers weekly WR3 value and will produce a handful of top-10 fantasy outings. An excellent mid-to-late round value target. ADVICE: Shaheed is an ascending fantasy option who could approach triple-digit targets
