2024 Atlanta Falcons Team Outlook
Mercifully, the Arthur Smith regime in Atlanta is over. Raheem Morris returns to Atlanta, this time without the interim label. Accompanying Morris from Los Angeles will be new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. His task is simple: actually use the abundance of skill position talent the Falcons have accrued.
Having a quality leader is paramount to accomplishing that goal. Enter new QB Kirk Cousins, a huge improvement over Desmond Ridder. Cousins signed a four-deal with $100 million guaranteed after posting top-10 fantasy points per game numbers in each of his last four campaigns.
Since becoming a starter, Cousins has averaged 4,264 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season. Cousins gives the Falcons their best quarterback since prime Matt Ryan. With the weapons around him, Cousins should once again be one of the top fantasy football value targets. However, he is recovering from a season-ending Achilles injury and was 'stunned' when the club used the No.8 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Michael Penix. It was a questionable move and worth monitoring all summer.
Bijan Robinson was given more than 15 carries just four times in his rookie season, yet still posted over RB8 numbers. That inexplicable lack of usage will change with Zac Robinson calling plays. Zac Robinson comes from a Rams' system that force-fed their lead back more than any other team. Fantasy managers fortunate enough to draft should be equally excited. B-Rob has the talent to be the No. 1 overall fantasy option in 2024.
The biggest impact Kirk Cousins will have is on an Atlanta passing attack that ranked 26th last season. Cousins has a long history of heavily targeting his No. 1 wideout. This will be huge for Drake London, who should top 130 targets for the first time in his career.
Atlanta also spent big to upgrade one of the thinnest receiving corps in football. Darnell Mooney is a downfield speedster who will benefit from Cousins's deep-ball accuracy. Moore will function closer to the line of scrimmage, taking the occasional handoff and acting as an outlet option.
The biggest benefactor of the Cousins signing might be TE Kyle Pitts. Despite running only 14.9% of his routes as an in-line tight end, Pitts was criminally underutilized by the previous regime. Pitts should continue to see plenty of reps from the slot and perimeter and is a good bet to see a big boost in target share.
Atlanta has top-10 talent at all three skill positions, giving them a lot of leverage and depth for a creative play-caller. This team should get involved in several "track meet" types of contests. Fantasy managers should not hesitate to target the new dirty birds.
QB Kirk Cousins, LVR - Quality Backup
Because he's been so consistently productive, averaging over 4,263 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns per season since becoming a starter, Kirk Cousins has been one of the top fantasy values annually. But a torn Achilles and a change of address to Atlanta complicate his 2024 status. As does the baffling choice to draft Michael Penix Jr. We know Cousins can sling it. He's posted QB1 fantasy points per game numbers in three of the past four seasons. The Falcons also boast some intriguing skill-position talent and the league's easiest strength of schedule. A healthy Cousins can be an elite fantasy option but fantasy managers have to mitigate significant risk this season. ADVICE: Risk/reward QB2
RB Bijan Robinson, ATL - Stud (low risk)
Giving Bijan Robinson just one game all season with 20-plus rushing attempts earned Arthur Smith a Crimes Against Fantasy Award. Robinson got fewer attempts than Devin Singletary but still finished his rookie campaign as an RB1 thanks to his 86 targets, which were tied for second among running backs. With Smith gone, Robinson is primed to see a much bigger role with Zac Robinson running the offense. Robinson came from the Rams who adhered to a feature-back system. The presence of Kirk Cousins will only help Robinson and the Falcons. Look for Robinson to see a boost in touches in his second season and be a strong breakout candidate. ADVICE: Locked-In RB1 with position-leading upside
RB Tyler Allgeier, ARI - Fantasy Handcuff
Allgeier saw a big reduction in yards and was less elusive in his sophomore season. He forced less missed tackles and only had three breakaway runs after scampering for 13 in 2022. Now, Atlanta has a new staff who is on record as saying that they need to get Bijan Robinson more touches. Allgeier is one of the better backups of football and capable of being a weekly RB2 if forced into the starting lineup. However, it doesn't appear he'll have much standalone value in Atlanta's new offense. ADVICE: One of the better reserves, but Allgeier is unlikely to approach 200 touches in Atlanta's new system
WR Drake London, ATL - Solid/Safe Pick
Drake London's 2023 utilization was significant, commanding a 23% target share and 31% air yards share. However, his lack of touchdowns limited his fantasy impact, resulting in a WR39 overall finish. The Falcons upgraded their QB significantly with the addition of QB Kirk Cousins. Atlanta also changed coaches and offensive coordinators. The switch from Arthur Smith to Zac Robinson will also work wonders for this offense. London's lack of progression lies with the previous regime. Since the start of the 2022 season, the Falcons have run the ball 51% of the time in a neutral game script. Only the Chicago Bears had a higher rate. ADVICE: Year three WR breakout candidate
WR Darnell Mooney, NYG - Bye Week Fill-in
Few players needed a change of scenery more than Darnell Mooney, whose usage bafflingly eroded after he surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in 2021. Mooney still has elite speed (4.38) and separation skills and will benefit greatly from playing (mostly) indoors with Kirk Cousins. Look for Mooney to line up in the slot in Atlanta, where he'll benefit from the presence of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Mooney is a solid player who is being entirely overlooked in early fantasy drafts. Add him to your "must-have late-round sleepers" list. ADVICE: Excellent separator who will benefit in a new offense. Mooney has some solid upside and is essentially free at the end of every draft
