2024 Jacksonville Jaguars Team Outlook
Jacksonville Jaguars
The 30th season in Jacksonville Jaguars history sees the club at a crossroads. After an 8-3 start, the team lost five of their final six to miss the playoffs. With the division-rival Texans surging and facing a tough schedule, Doug Pederson has his work cut out in 2024.
QB Trevor Lawrence saw his numbers dip slightly in 2023. Lawrence rushed for a career-best 339 yards but his passing efficiency and production declined. He also missed the first game of his career, resulting in Lawrence finishing outside the top 12 fantasy scorers after finishing as QB7 in 2022.
Still, Lawrence is a good runner who will produce 4,000 passing yards and will be in a good position to challenge for fantasy QB1 production again. Drafters will also benefit from a slight dip in T-Law's ADP.
The loss of Jacksonville's top receiver (Calvin Ridley) will hurt. Enter Gabe Davis, who signed a three-year $39 million deal to act as the Jags' main perimeter and deep threat. Davis was an erratic producer in Buffalo, with five 20-plus point games interspersed with four outings with zero points. The Jaguars and fantasy managers will need Pederson to unlock consistent targets for Davis to come anywhere near Ridley's production.
Christian Kirk should reclaim his role as Jacksonville's top wideout. Kirk missed five starts and only eclipsed 100-plus yards twice last season. With Ridley's 22.4% target share now available, Kirk is a good bet to surpass 100 targets. Kirk is an excellent mid-round value.
After trading down, Jacksonville also added talented LSU rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. to the fold. Thomas has an outstanding blend of size (6-3, 209) and speed and is in play for deep-ball shots.
TE Evan Engram led the club in targets and target share while leading all NFL tight ends with 114 receptions. That insane volume led to Engram posting TE2 numbers in PPR formats. However, he's unlikely to repeat his position-leading 143 targets with the added target competition.
RB Travis Etienne posted overall RB3 numbers thanks to a career-best 12 touchdowns. After surpassing five yards per carry in 2022, Etienne struggled to 3.8 yards per tote last season. Volume (325 touches ranked third) and that red-zone prowess were significant factors in his strong fantasy showing.
Pederson has indicated that D'Ernest Johnson and Tank Bigsby will be more involved in 2024. Additionally, fifth-round rookie Keiland Robinson adds depth. If these ancillary weapons are more involved it will be hard for Etienne to replicate last year's production.
From a fantasy perspective, the Jaguars have quality options at every position but lack depth. There's plenty of appeal but a Jags stack should be approached with caution.
QB Trevor Lawrence, JAX - Solid/Safe Pick
After a rough start, Trevor Lawrence had five weekly QB1 finishes in his final seven starts to post his second consecutive top-12 fantasy season. Although the passing numbers aren't overwhelming, Lawrence bolsters his value by averaging a healthy 19.3 rushing yards per game with 11 TD runs in three seasons. Lawrence's fourth season sees him at a crossroads. He hasn't developed into the superstar prospect many considered him and the Jaguars are just 20-30 during Lawrence's career. However, he's been a solid, if unspectacular fantasy option. Jacksonville will need inconsistent Gabe Davis to step up big in place of the departed Calvin Ridley if Lawrecne is going to post his third QB1 finish in four years. ADVICE: Decent target with limited ceiling
RB Travis Etienne, JAX - Stud (low risk)
Etienne ranked third among all running backs with 325 touches, resulting in 1,484 scrimmage yards, 12 scores, and eight weekly RB1 showings. He played 17 games for the second consecutive season and commanded double-digit touches in all but one contest. However, his efficiency declined, dipping to 3.8 yards per carry and dropping from 18 breakaway runs in 2022 to 10. Four of Eitenne's five worst fantasy performances also came after the Week 9 bye, so it's fair to wonder if the Jaguars will try to limit his massive workload behind a suspect O-line. Etienne remains a solid RB1 but will be hard-pressed to repeat last year's RB3 showing. ADVICE: Locked-In RB1 who likely peaked in 2023
RB Tank Bigsby, JAX - Dynasty Only
ADVICE Complete bust in rookie season but Doug Pederson indicated the club intends to "get Tank going." The addition of Keilan Robinson adds more uncertainty. Bigsby is barely on the dynasty radar at this point.
RB D'Ernest Johnson, JAX - Low Potential
ADVICE: Johnson will mix in as a change-of-pace option behind Travis Etienne. He has modest value as a flex option if he was forced into the starting lineup.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., JAX - Bye Week Fill-in
A big-time playmaker who led FBS with 17 touchdowns in 2023, Brian Thomas Jr. posted a 99th-percentile speed score by blazing a 4.33-second 40-yard dash. Measuring 6-foot-4 and weighing 205, Thomas stands out as a deep-ball tracker and potential red-zone threat. He also landed in a favorable spot, with Trevor Lawrence and a Jacksonville offense looking to fill the void left by Calvin Ridley's departure. The Jaguars utilized three-wide formations on 63.2% of their snaps last season but that number should increase with Thomas and Gabe Davis on the perimeter. Thomas is a big upgrade over Zay Jones, who averaged 7.1 targets per game last season in this offense ADVICE: Elite size/speed profile who should see immediate playing time in solid offense
