2024 Indianapolis Colts Team Outlook
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
There was a lot of adversity in Indianapolis in 2023. Still, the Colts were a dropped pass away from winning the AFC South. Despite missing his prized rookie signal-caller for most of the campaign, in his debut season at the helm, Shane Steichen led his team to 10th in scoring after ranking 31st in 2022.
With Anthony Richardson healthy and Michael Pittman re-signed to a new three-year deal, the Colts enter 2024 with momentum and some intriguing fantasy options.
First among the fantasy headliners is second-year QB Anthony Richardson, whose debut was derailed after four games. However, Richardson looked like a fantasy enigma posting QB2 and QB4 finishes in his two complete games. Richardson's elite rushing potential makes him a coveted risk/reward fantasy option. However, potential drafters should be prepared to invest in a strong backup option.
Gardner Minshew had a strong showing in relief of Richardson and parlayed that into a $25 million deal with the Raiders. In Minshew's place, Joe Flacco gives the Colts a trusted veteran presence to air it out if Richardson gets hurt again.
RB Jonathan Taylor also missed seven starts. But Taylor found the end zone eight times in 10 games and delivered RB1 numbers in terms of fantasy points per game. With Zach Moss now in Cincinnati, Taylor is poised to see a larger share of the backfield touches and contend for top-5 fantasy production.
Pittman ranked ninth in the NFL with 156 targets and fourth with 109 receptions a year ago. The fifth-year star wideout had 11-plus targets in three of Richardson's four starts.
Josh Downs (68/771/2) had a strong debut, absorbing multiple catches in 16 of 17 outings. However, the addition of second-round rookie WR Adonai Mitchell will shake up the target hierarchy. Mitchell is a 4.34 vertical threat who will see time immediately in three-wide sets.
Alec Pierce ranked fifth in the league with a 15.7 ADOT but was held to 30 or fewer yards in seven of his final nine games.
At tight end, the Colts utilized multiple tight end formations on 18.8% of their snaps. However, none of those options exceeded 50 targets or made much of a fantasy impact. Kylen Granson led the way with 30 receptions and 368 yards, but his overall TE33 finish puts him well off the fantasy radar.
Indianapolis allowed the fifth-most points last season. Turning that around was Stechein's top priority. The team re-signed some of their defensive leaders and added key components in the draft.
Allowing fewer points and yards will result in a slowing of the pace for Indy's offense. The Colts have three fantasy stars at three positions but don't have much depth.
QB Joe Flacco, CLE - Low Potential
ADVICE: Flacco was a huge addition down the stretch last year. Now, he'll back up a sophomore signal-caller who only played two healthy games. A player to keep on your watch list in 2QB formats.
QB Anthony Richardson, IND - Sleeper (undervalued)
In two healthy (full) games, Anthony Richardson posted QB4 and QB2 finishes, leading all QBs in points per dropback. A Week 5 shoulder injury ended his season prematurely but Richardson showed league-winning upside in the small sample size starring in Shane Steichen's offense. Steichen has quietly assembled a solid supporting cast around his second-year signal caller, including the addition of second-round WR Adonai Mitchell. The Colts also boast an inviting schedule in 2024, ranked as the seventh-easiest in football. Health will remain the biggest concern for Richardson, followed by Steichen potentially adapting his offense to prevent his quarterback from being put in harm's way. However, if we see a full 17-game slate out of last year's version, Richardson has league-winning upside in his sophomore season. ADVICE: League-winning upside with plenty of risk
RB Jonathan Taylor, IND - Stud (low risk)
Even though he was limited to 10 games last season, Jonathan Taylor still flashed elite potential. He finished with weekly RB1 numbers in half of those contests but was particularly effective down the stretch, averaging 99 yards per game in his final eight starts with six touchdowns in his last five. He also looked quite healthy, creating a career-best 3.12 yards after contact per attempt. Now fully healthy with a ton of momentum behind a strong run-blocking line that was reinforced in the draft, Taylor looks poised to contend for top-5 fantasy numbers in an emerging Colts offense. ADVICE: Strong RB1 with tier-one capabilities
RB Evan Hull, PIT - Deep-league Only
ADVICE; Jonathan Taylor has missed multiple games in three of his four campaigns. Hull is the early favorite to emerge as Indy's No. 2 back, giving him some upside as a late-round handcuff target.
Injury Status: Injured ReserveRB Trey Sermon, IND - Deep-league Only
Sermon will compete with Evan Hull for RB2 duties behind Jonathan Taylor. In the past that has been a decent role, but neither Sermon or Hull have proven anything in the league, particularly as pass-catchers. That shapes up to a bell-cow role for Taylor, with QB Anthony Richardson being the team's No. 2 rusher. Sermon is little more than a late-round handcuff in very deep leagues.
WR Michael Pittman, IND - Solid/Safe Pick
Head coach Shane Steichen centered the offense around Pittman during Steichen's first season as head coach in 2023, sending 150 regular-season targets (the ninth most among NFL wide receivers) his way. Pittman is expected to improve with 2023 first-round draft pick, QB Anthony Richardson, now healthy. Richardson's 42.9% downfield throw rate significantly surpasses last season's starter, Gardner Minshew's 36.1%, bringing an exciting downfield element to Indy's offense. ADVICE: Pittman's mid-third-round average draft position (ADP) in 2024 presents excellent value for fantasy managers. He should be confidently drafted as a WR1 due to his high-volume role and quarterback upgrade.
