2023 Baltimore Ravens Team Outlook
Coaching Staff
John Harbaugh returns for his 16th season as head coach for the Ravens. He has a 147-95 record with 10 playoff berths and one Super Bowl title (2012). In 2021, the Ravens finished with a losing record (8-9) for the first time since 2007. Lamar Jackson missed nine of the team's final 10 games over the past two years, leading to a 1-8 record with an additional loss in the postseason in 2022. Baltimore made the playoffs four times in five seasons, with Jackson behind center (45-16).
The Ravens named Todd Monken as their offensive coordinator over the winter. Over the previous three seasons, he held the same position for the Georgia Bulldogs. Monken has eight years of experience in the NFL, with two other brief offensive coordinator jobs (Tampa Bay – 2018 and Cleveland – 2019).
After leading the NFL in scoring in 2019 (531 points), Baltimore slipped to 7th (468), 17th (387), and 19th (350). They finished 16th in offensive yards last season.
Mike MacDonald returns for his second season as the Ravens' defensive coordinator. He worked in Baltimore's coaching tree from 2014 to 2020 before moving to Michigan to run their defense. His highest-ranking previous coaching job in the NFL has been as a linebacking coach.
Baltimore climbed to third in points allowed (315), an improvement of 77 points from 2021 (392). They had a top 10 defense in yards allowed seven times over the past nine years (9th in 2022).
Free Agency
After battling with Lamar Jackson over his contract in 2022, the Ravens ponied up $260 million to lock him up for the next five seasons. Jackson received $135 million in guaranteed money, compared to $32.8 million in earnings over his first five seasons in the NFL.
Baltimore added Odell Beckham and Nelson Agholor for wide receiver depth. They didn't resign CB Marcus Peters and LB Justin Houston, who remain free agents. The Vikings snatched up backup tight end Josh Oliver, and G Ben Powers found a new home in Denver. The Ravens took a flier on CB Rock Ya-Sin to help their secondary.
Draft
The wide receiver position was also Baltimore's focus, with the first selection in the 2023 NFL Draft (Zay Flowers – 22nd). He is an undersized player (5'9" and 182 lbs.) with excellent speed (4.42 40-yard dash at the NFL combine) and quickness. His release and foundation of his route running create an early edge, but Flowers does need to fine-tune his precision on some patterns to stay in rhythm with his quarterback. He'll have many chances to make significant plays after the catch, but his hands and strength can be liabilities when asked to win in tight coverage.
The Ravens shifted to their defense with their next three draft picks – LB Trenton Simpson, DE Tavius Robinson, and CB Kyu Blue Kelly.
Simpson plays with high intensity and speed, but his aggression can sometimes get him trapped by the big bodies at the line of scrimmage. His vision must improve to let the developing play come to him where Simpson can excel with his attacking style. He projects well in coverage and has the wheels to get to the quarterback on blitzes.
The future looks bright for Robinson based on his ability to support the run and get to the quarterback. He hasn't reached his peak frame, which will be needed to win more close-contact battles. In addition, his strength must improve to increase his chances of finishing off plays and holding his ground when attacked in the run game. Robinson has a pass-rushing plan, but his overall speed isn't enough of an edge to consistently win when forced to take a long route to the quarterback.
Kelly feels like a cornerback who will have more success as the field shortens. He shows quickness and can handle wideouts in press coverage, but quarterbacks will look to test him on more extended patterns. Kelly doesn't have the overall speed to make up ground vs. top wide receivers once beaten early in pass patterns. His pretty boy style hinders his tackling and value against the run.
In the sixth and seventh rounds, the Ravens added two offensive linemen (T Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu and G Andrew Vorhees). Aumavae-Laulu brings power run blocking to the NFL, but his lumbering style has more risk than reward at this point of his career in pass protection. He must improve his footwork and technique to earn starting snaps. Vorhees is another player who relies on his power to create wins. His experience and technique give him a chance to help an offensive line early in his career once he recovers from his torn ACL.
Offensive Line
Baltimore finished in the top four in rushing in 2019 (3,296 yards – 1st), 2020 (3,071 yards – 1st), 2021 (2,479 yards – 3rd), and 2022 (2,720 – 2nd). The injuries to Lamar Jackson over the past two seasons cost the Ravens a chance of leading the NFL in rushing yards in those years. They gained 5.2 yards per rush in 2022 with 14 touchdowns and eight runs of 20 yards or more.
Their passing game fell to 30th in 3,202 passing yards while losing momentum in passing touchdowns (19). Baltimore's quarterbacks tossed 18 interceptions while 38 sacks (19 fewer than in 2021). Jackson gained a career-low 6.9 yards per pass attempt.
Over the past three seasons, Ronnie Stanley missed 32 of his potential 49 starts. When at his best, he projects as a top pass protector with plenty of help in run blocking.
Left guard remains a questionable slot in the starting lineup until someone emerges. Ben Cleveland is the early favorite until Andrew Vorhees returns to full strength.
C Tyler Linderbaum handled himself well in run blocking in his rookie season after getting drafted in the first round in 2022. He allowed too much pressure on the quarterback, which must improve this year.
RG Kevin Zeitler remains a top player for his potential, with high grades in all areas. Baltimore hopes to squeeze another competitive season out of Morgan Moses. If not, Daniel Faalele should be the next man up.
The Ravens have strength at three offensive line positions. They should continue to run the ball well, and the mobility of Lamar Jackson tends to limit the damage in sacks. The key to their success is a healthy Stanley.
QB Lamar Jackson, BAL - Stud (low risk)
After gaining over 1,000 yards rushing in 2019 (1,206) and 2020 (1,005) with an edge in rushing touchdowns (14), Jackson missed five games in back-to-back years. He was on pace for 1,087 and 1,082 rushing yards if he played 17 games in 2021 and 2022. In his career, Jackson has averaged 63 rushing yards over 70 contests.
His peak total in pass attempts (401 – 26.7 per game) came in 2019 over 15 starts. In 2021, he was on pace to throw 541 passes (31.8 per game). Jackson struggled to deliver rushing touchdowns in 2021 (2) and 2022 (3), lowering his ceiling in fantasy points. He only needs 1,673 more rushing yards to pass Michael Vick (6,109 – 143 games) for the most in NFL history.
Jackson busted out of the gate over the first three weeks last season with 992 combined yards (749/10 passing) with a dozen scores. Over his next eight complete games, he averaged only 185 passing yards on 29.3 attempts, leading to 6.3 yards per pass attempt. Jackson scored only once on the ground over this span.
Fantasy Outlook: Jackson's success and fantasy value start with impact yards on the ground. He must regain his lost momentum in rushing touchdowns to push higher in the quarterback rankings. The Ravens look to have the most receiving depth since Jackson arrived on the scene, pointing to a career-high in his passing output. He ranks eighth at quarterback in the early draft season in the high-stakes market. His ceiling looks to be 4,500 combined yards with 35 scores, and I view Jackson as reasonably priced. My only advice is to add a second quarterback of value to protect against a season-ending knee injury.
Other Options: Tyler Huntley, Anthony Brown, Nolan Henderson
RB Gus Edwards, BAL - Fantasy Handcuff
In his four seasons with the Ravens, Edwards gained at least 5.0 yards per rush every year (5.2, 5.3, 5.0, and 5.0). He has limited value in the passing game (18/194 – no catches in 2022), but his play in this area flashed more explosiveness in 2020 (9/129 – three catches over 20 yards) while finishing with 852 combined yards with six scores and nine catches on 144 carries). Baltimore gave him more than 10 touches in six of his 18 games (including playoffs).
Edwards also blew out his left knee before Week 1 in 2021, leading to no touches. His slow recovery led to him missing the first six games last season. After two helpful games (16/66/2 and 11/65), Edwards was back on the sidelines for the following three weeks with a hamstring issue. Over his final seven appearances, he gained 354 combined yards with one touchdown and one catch.
Fantasy Outlook: Edwards posted a floor of 700 rushing yards in his first three years with the Ravens. He plays with power while offering a closing mentality when Baltimore plays from the lead. Edwards should be back to full strength at the start of the year while resuming his RB2 role for Baltimore. I expect him to go undrafted in most 12-team leagues in 2023.
RB Justice Hill, BAL - Low Potential
Hill was the fourth wheel in the Ravens' rushing offense in 2019 and 2020, which led to minimal touches in all games. He ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the NFL combine in 2018 while showing plenty of strength (21 bench press reps). Justice runs with a quick tempo, giving him a chance to make big plays. His vision, power, and shake help him make defenders miss in the open field. Hill wants to run outside, which may hurt his value in some games vs. top-run defenses. His next step is improving in pass protection to help earn more snaps on passing downs.
Over three seasons of action, Hill gained 795 combined yards with two touchdowns and 25 catches on 144 touches. He missed all of 2021 with a torn Achilles while failing to capitalize on his opportunity last season.
Fantasy Outlook: The Ravens would like to tap into his big-play ability, but Hill doesn't even have a handcuff feel at this point of his career. He has a lot to prove this summer to keep a roster spot.
RB J.K. Dobbins, BAL - Solid/Safe Pick
Baltimore stole Dobbins in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He brings a fighter's mentality to the ground game with strength in his runs. He aims to drive the ball forward with quickness and vision, with against-the-grain cuts. He'll take a hit and lose his balance, but Dobbins finds a way to stay upright on many plays while offering a stiff arm.
While playing in a great system at Ohio State, Dobbins looked elite in his freshman year (1,538 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 22 catches on 216 touches), seeing about 55% of the running back opportunity. His game regressed in 2018 (1,316 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and 26 catches) due to Mike Weber (172/954/5) outplaying Dobbins on many days. In 2019, Dobbins regained his bounce in his step, which led to a high volume opportunity (301/2,003/21 plus 23 catches for 247 yards and two touchdowns).
Over the first six games in 2020, Dobbins only averaged six touches per game, leading to 228 combined yards with two touchdowns and 11 catches. His opportunity became fantasy relevant over the Ravens' final 11 matchups (827 combined yards with eight touchdowns and 11 catches), resulting in 12.88 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues. His highlight game came in Week 17 (13/160/2).
In 2021, Dobbins suffered a torn ACL in his left knee before the start of the year, leading to a lost season. He didn't look healthy last year, resulting in eight more missed starts (a clean-up knee surgery midseason) over the first 12 games (35/123/1 with six catches for 39 yards and one score). Dobbins ran the ball much better over his final five contests (70/459/1 – 6.6 yards per rush) while picking up five catches for 46 yards and a touchdown.
Fantasy Outlook: With an entire offseason to get his knee in shape and work on his strength, Dobbins should be ready to rock and roll in Week 1. He won't make an impact in the passing, and Baltimore will rotate in a second runner on early downs. Dobbins also takes a hit from Lamar Jackson sniping goal-line carries and scores. I see about 250 touches for 1,300 yards, double-digit scoring, and 25 catches. At best, a mid-tier RB2 in PPR formats with a limited ceiling and outcome of impact games.
Jody Smith - Shawn's projection of 1,300 rushing yards and double-digit scores is right on. Dobbins showcased breakaway ability last year even though running backs are typically limited in their first season of action following reconstructive knee surgery. I think Dobbins is a darkhorse candidate to approach top-10 fantasy numbers. He's one of my favorte mid-round values and an ideal Zero-RB target.
Injury Status: Injured Reserve
RB Keaton Mitchell, BAL - Dynasty Only
The Ravens added Mitchell as an undrafted free agent of the 2023 NFL Draft. He played well over his final two seasons at East Carolina, leading to 375 rushes for 2,584 yards and 23 touchdowns with help in the passing game (22/253/1 and 27/252/1). Mitchell is undersized (5'8" and 180 lbs.) with electric speed (4.37 40-yard dash at the NFL combine).
Fantasy Outlook: Baltimore may use him in the return game, where his speed and open-field running gain an edge. He doesn't have the tools or foundation to excel in pass protection, hurting his ability to seize a third-down role. His first step is passing Justice Hill on the depth chart, giving Mitchell a better chance to strut his stuff as a change-of-pace runner.
Other Options: Owen Wright
WR Zay Flowers, BAL - Sleeper (undervalued)
Over four seasons at Boston College, Flowers caught 200 of his 361 targets for 3,056 yards and 29 touchdowns over 48 games. He chipped in with 57 rushes for 345 yards and two scores. BC featured him more in the deep passing games based on his yards per catch (15.3) and lower catch rate (55.4). Flowers finished his senior season with 78 catches for 1,117 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Fantasy Outlook: I don't know how many catches Flowers will have in his rookie season, but he will be an electric player with the ball in his hands. His open-field running should work well when Lamar Jackson has a long passing window. I expect Flowers to get better as he gets stronger and improves his route running. I see traits of Antonio Brown, so pay attention to his progress this summer. His ADP is WR48 being drafted around the 10th round.
