2023 New England Patriots Team Outlook

Coaching Staff

Bill Belichick returns for his 24th season with the New England Patriots. Belichick has a 262-108 record in New England with six Super Bowls and three other trips to the big game. The Patriots went 31-13 in the postseason since 2001. Belichick needs 31 wins to pass Don Shula for the most in NFL history. They've won the AFC East 11 times over the past 14 seasons (16 titles over the last 20 years).

The Patriots brought in Bill O'Brien to take over as their offensive coordinator. He started his professional coaching career in 2007 with New England. After five seasons working in various offensive jobs for them, O'Brien earned his first heading coaching job (15-9) with Penn State from 2012 to 2013 before earning the same position for the Houston Texans (52-48) from 2014 to 2020. His teams had a winning record in five seasons while making the postseason four times. He worked as the offensive coordinator for Alabama over the past two years.

New England fell to 26th in yards gained, 11 spots lower than in 2021. They scored 364 points (17th), 98 points less than last season.

Heading into 2023, the Patriots don't have someone listed as their defensive coordinator. Linebackers coach (Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick) have the most experience (12 and 11 years).

Their defense finished 11th in points allowed (347 – 303 in 2021) while ranking eighth in defensive yards allowed.

Free Agency

The most significant changes via free agency for New England came at wide receiver over the winter. They lost Jakobi Jones to the Las Vegas Raiders, and Nelson Agholor signed with the Baltimore Ravens. New England decided JuJu Smith-Schuster was a better fit for their offense with a smaller price tag than Jones while almost being the same age.

New England lost RB Damien Harris to the Buffalo Bills while adding TE Mike Gesicki and RB James Robinson. The only other significant change was the loss of T Isaiah Wynn, who remains a free agent in mid-May.

Draft

The Patriots picked up 11 players in the 2023 NFL Draft, two of which went to kicker (4.10 – Chad Ryland) and punter (6.15 – Bryce Baringer). New England's top priority was defense (1.17 – CB Christian Gonzalez, 2.15 – DE Kevin White, 3.13 – LB Marte Mapu, 6.37 – CB Ameer Speed, and 7.28 – CB Isaiah Bolden) and offensive line (C Jake Andrews, G Sidy Sow, and G Kayshon Boutte). Their two darts on offense went to WR Kayshon Boutte (6.10) and WR Demario Douglas (6.33).

Gonzalez gives New England an elite speed option (4.38 40-yard dash at the NFL combine) at cornerback. He will upgrade their press coverage, and his ability to bump and run should improve his coverage value as the field shorten. Even with plus speed and quickness, he can be a tick behind his responsibilities when facing the line of scrimmage and thinking about the developing play. Once Gonzalez improves his reaction time, he'll reach elite status at cornerback.

Patriots fans should fall in love with White as his motor runs hot on all downs while offering a much higher ceiling once he develops his pass-rushing moves and techniques. White offers power and quickness to disrupt plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Mapu brings a hybrid frame to the NFL, suggesting that he'll become a big safety with strength in run support and coverage vs. running backs and tight ends. His top-end speed and quickness will lead to him being a liability when matchup one-on-one over the long field vs. wideouts. New England may push him to linebacker if he adds more bulk. His vision grades as an asset.

Based on his size, strength, and speed, I sense that CB Ameer Speed will be viewed as the next "Matthew Slater" on special teams. He projects well in run support while lacking the technique and foundation at this point in his career to handle pro wide receivers.

Bolden is another big cornerback added with the skill set to improve the Patriots' press coverage. His talent helped his wins at Jackson State University, but he must improve his reads and technique when asked to match wide receivers stride for stride in the NFL. Run support shouldn't be an issue, and Bolden can overcome a missed step with his speed and quickness.

Andrews will defend his area of the field, but his range looks limited. His game is all about power and strength while lacking the footwork and quickness to win outside his assigned area. Bull rushers should be stopped in their tracks, and his power should play well in a quick-hitting run game up the middle.

Sow has the tools to become a much better player if he develops better movements with his feet and improves his decision-making and vision after the snap. Sow checks the boxed NFL teams are looking for later in drafts for offensive linemen.

New England's theme for their offensive line this year was power and strength. Mafi is another player expected to help the Patriots' run game while lacking the recovery range to win outside his frame in pass protection.

Boutte has the talent to be the star wideout that the Patriots continue to miss on in most NFL drafts. He is a playmaker with deep play and scoring ability. New England may use him out of the slot, where his shiftiness can lead to impact plays on short catches. Boutte isn't quite there in his route running, but his foundation and skill set could lead to him earning valuable snaps in his rookie season. He is a hands catcher who needs to improve his focus to improve his catch rate.

Douglas is an undersized wideout (5'8" and 180 lbs.) with speed and quickness. His release creates an edge, but his route running isn't NFL-ready. He must secure the ball better to see any snaps for New England.

Offensive Line

The Patriots slipped to 24th in rushing in yards (1,812) with 12 touchdowns and 11 runs of 20 yards or more. They averaged 4.3 yards per carry and 25.0 rushes per game (down from 28.7 in 2021). New England threw the ball 540 times (31.7 per matchup), leading to 3,815 yards (21st) with 19 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. They gained 7.1 yards per pass attempt while allowing 41 sacks.

In his third season, RG Michael Onwenu continues to allow minimal pressure and sacks. His run blocking was below his previous elite level in 2022, but it was more of a team issue. LT Trent Brown allowed more sacks last season than he did over his previous five years, but he still tends to be an asset in pass protection. He projects to be a better player at right tackle. LG Cole Strange was hot and cold in pass blocking in his rookie season after getting drafted in the first round in 2022. He rarely provided an edge in the run game. C David Andrews remains a veteran asset on the line while missing three games last year with a thigh issue.

I don't view this offensive line as better than the league average, with more help added via the draft. Ultimately, if New England gets better quarterback play, the rest of the offense should fall in line.

QB Mac Jones, NE - Quality Backup

After a successful training game in his rookie season, New England quickly shifted to Jones as their starting quarterback. His year started with a 2-4 record while delivering 245 passing yards per game with seven combined touchdowns and six interceptions. Jones led the Patriots to wins in each matchup over the next seven weeks despite averaging under 200 passing yards and 24.7 passes. Due to the weather, he did have an outlier game in Week 13 vs. the Bills (only three pass attempts). Over his final five starts (including the playoffs), Jones went 1-4 with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions.

In 2022, Jones started the season with two quiet games (213/1 and 252/1) before throwing the ball better vs. the Ravens in Week 3 (321/0 and five rushed for 31 yards and a score with eight completions over 20 yards). Unfortunately, he suffered a high ankle sprain after his third interception, leading to three missed games and minimal excitement for the rest of the season. Jones averaged 221 passing yards over his final 10 starts (including the postseason) with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions while gaining only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. His only game of value (382/2) came in Week 12.

Fantasy Outlook: The Patriots added WR Juju Smith-Schuster in the offseason after a below-expectations season (78/933/3 on 101 targets) with the Chiefs. New England has plenty of questions about the strength and upside of their receiving corps, making Jones a desperation QB3 in 12-team formats. His completion rate (66.5) for his career grades well, but he must improve his touchdown production (36 over 31 games) and yards per pass attempt (7.1) to become a trusted fantasy asset. At this point of his career, 4,000 passing yards with 1.5 scores a game would be a move in a positive direction.

QB Bailey Zappe, NE - Dynasty Only

Over his first four seasons at Houston Baptist, Zappe passed for 10,004 yards with 78 touchdowns and 39 interceptions while offering short plays on the ground (271/243/3). His ceiling reached an explosive level in 2021 after transferring to Western Kentucky. He passed for 5,967 yards with 62 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Zappe upped his completion rate to 69.1%.

The injury to Mac Jones gave Zappe an unexpected opportunity for four games in his rookie season. He flashed in Week 6 (309/2) while posting competitive stats (781/5) over his 196 snaps. Zappe completed 70.7% of his passes while gaining an impressive 8.5 yards per pass attempt.

Fantasy Outlook: The Patriots' faithful turned on Mac Jones after Zappe showed the ability to make big plays. With another training camp under his belt, he is only a hand signal away from starting while having a chance to succeed as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Other Options: Trace McSorley

RB Rhamondre Stevenson, NE - Stud (low risk)

In 2021, the Patriots gave Stevenson minimal chances (127 combined yards with one touchdown and five catches on 30 touches) over their first eight games. In Week 10, with Damian Harris injured, he broke loose for an impact game (20/100/2 with four catches for 14 yards). His success led to a rotational role over New England's final seven matchups (442 combined yards with two scores and seven catches on 93 touches). Stevenson also shined in Week 17 (19/107/2).

After a slow start over his first two games (78 combined yards and three catches on 20 touches) last season, Stevenson pushed his way up the running back ranking over the next 10 games (18.69 FPPG in PPR formats), helped by a much higher floor in the passing game (53/377/1) over this span. The injury to Damien Harris in Week 5 created his improved opportunity. Stevenson averaged 19.7 touches while delivering six winning games (20.10, 19.50, 25.10, 23.80, 21.10, and 20.20 fantasy points) over his hot run.

Unfortunately, he left Week 14 (3/8 with two catches for two yards) after 13 snaps, crushing fantasy teams on the doorstep of the championship rounds in the high-stakes market. Stevenson rebounded for an impact game (19/172/1 with two catches negative four yards) the following week but ended the year with three dull showings (4.30, 7.10, and 13.20 fantasy points). Defenses held him to short production in the passing game over his final five starts (13/38 on 22 targets – 2.9 yards per catch).

Fantasy Outlook: Stevenson ended the season as the eighth-highest-scoring running back in fantasy points (250.50) in PPR formats. He gained 3.4 yards after contact, highlighted by gaining more than 20 yards on 10 plays (two reached the 40-yard mark). Adding James Robinson will cost Stevenson some touches and lower his ceiling, and New England has running back upside on their roster. In the early draft season, he comes off the board as an early RB2 with a late third-round ADP. Let's go with another 1,000 yards rushing with 50 catches for 350 yards with a chance at double-digit touchdowns. His upside in scoring lies in the improvement of the Patriots' offense in 2023.

RB Pierre Strong Jr., CLE - Low Potential

New England found another up-the-middle runner with the addition of Strong in the 2021 NFL Draft. He brings home-run speed to the Patriots' backfield. His best value comes when finding a clean lane where his shoulder fakes and slide steps create long runs. His challenge comes when stalling in tight quarters, where his lack of short-area quickness hurts his ability to get out of trouble. Strong plays bigger than his frame (5'11" and 210 lbs.).

Over 47 games at South Dakota State, he gained 5,108 combined yards with 43 touches and 62 catches. His highlight season was in 2021 (240/1,686/18 with 22 catches for 150 yards).

In his rookie season, Strong only touched the ball in four games, leading to 142 combined yards with one touchdown and seven catches on 17 touches. His best game (5/70/1 with two catches for 20 yards) came in Week 14 when Rhamondre Stevenson left early with an injury.

Fantasy Outlook: UPDATE: Traded to the Cleveland Browns. This is a good situation for him to thrive as a Nick Chubb complement. He'll immediately offer challenge to Jerome Ford backup duties.

Strong offers an early-down insurance card while also being a potential closing back when the Patriots play from a big lead. Target him around Round 14-15 range. Sleeper alert!

RB Kevin Harris, --- - Not Draft Worthy

Harris is another power runner with some experience catching the ball (36/280/1) over 27 games. His best success came in 2020 (1,297 combined yards with 16 touchdowns and 21 catches on 206 touches. In 2021, he battled a health issue, leading to a sharp decline in production (152/669/4 – 4.4 yards per rush).

The Patriots gave Harris 18 rushes last season, leading to 52 yards and one score. He faced an uphill battle to get touches in 2023.

Other Options; J.J. Taylor, Ty Montgomery

WR Kendrick Bourne, NE - Deep-league Only

In 2020 and 2021, Bourne developed into a sneaky backend wide receiver despite receiving only 144 combined targets. In 2021, he set career-highs in catches (55) and receiving yards (800) with five touchdowns and some value in the run game (12/125). The Patriots used him deeper in the passing game (14.5 yards per catch), leading to 10 catches of 20 yards or more (five of these plays gained at least 40 yards). When given a chance to catch the ball, Bourne caught 78.6% of his targets.

Last year Bourne seemed to fall out of favor with the coaching staff, resulting in a disappointing season (35/434/1) despite maintaining a high catch rate (72.9). His only game with more than five targets came in Week 16 (6/129/1).

Fantasy Outlook: Bourne will compete for WR3 in 2023. He blocks well, giving him a chance for more playing time when the Patriots play from the lead in the second half