AFC Team Pages
East BUF MIA NE NYJ	North BAL CIN CLE PIT	South HOU IND JAX TEN	West DEN KC LVR LAC
NFC Team Pages
East DAL NYG PHI WAS	North CHI DET GB MIN	South ATL CAR NO TB	West ARI LAR SF SEA

2023 Miami Dolphins Team Outlook

A Preview of the 2023 Miami Dolphins Profiled players include Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, Myles Gaskin, and Jeffery Wilson.

by Shawn Childs

2023 Miami Dolphins Outlook

Coaching Staff

It's been 14 seasons since the Miami Dolphins last won the AFC East. They posted a winning record in each of the past three years (10-6, 9-8, and 9-8) while making the postseason in 2022 for only the third time since 2001. Mike McDaniel looked the part of a successful NFL head coach in his rookie season. The concussion issues at quarterback led to Miami being undermanned behind center in too many matchups. From 2017 to 2020 with the 49ers, McDaniel worked as their run game coordinator before being promoted to offensive coordinator in 2021. McDaniel has 16 seasons of coaching experience in the NFL.

Frank Smith made the jump from run game coordinator and offensive line coach with the Chargers to Miami's offensive coordinator last season. His NFL career started in 2010 with the Saints as their assistant offensive line coach. He's been in the league for 13 seasons. The Dolphins finished sixth in points scored (397) after ranking outside the top 20 in 11 of the previous 12 years. Their 11th-place finish in offensive yards was Miami's best showing since 2014.

Vic Fangio takes over as Miami's defensive coordinator. After struggling in his first head coaching job in the NFL for Denver over three seasons (19-30), he worked as a consultant for the Philadelphia Eagles last year. Fangio has been working in the NFL since 1986 with 19 years of experience at the defensive coordinator position. Last year Miami ranked 24th in points allowed (399) and 18th in yards allowed.

Free Agency

The top two defensive players added via free agency last year were LB David Long and S DeShon Elliott. Both players should help Miami's run defense while projecting to start. Long improved last season in pass coverage, but he doesn't have a sack over 50 games in the NFL (four interceptions over the past two years).

The Dolphins moved on from QB Teddy Bridgewater (FA), TE Mike Gesicki (NE), WR Trent Sherfield (BUF), and LB Melvin Engram (FA).

Draft

Miami only had four draft picks in the 2023 NFL Draft, divided by adding one defensive player (CB Cam Smith – 2nd) and three offensive players (RB Devon Achane – 3rd, WR Elijah Higgins – 6th, and T Ryan Hayes – 7th).

Smith brings elite speed (4.43 40-yard dash) and quickness to the Dolphins' secondary, but he must add more strength and bulk to handle physical wideouts in the NFL and add value in run support. His vision and reads grade well when moving forward to the line of scrimmage, helping his ability to make winning plays. Smith must improve his technique to have success in tight man-to-man coverage.

Speed is a clear priority for Miami at the running back position. Achane ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the NFL combined. Most teams shied away from him due to his size (5'8" and 190 lbs.), but he is willing to fight for yards between the tackles. Achane runs with patience and vision with the footwork to make winning cuts in tight quarters. He will make defenses pay with long runs if given daylight at the line of scrimmage. Spacing is needed to win the passing game while having risk in pass protection. Achane should upgrade the Dolphins' return game in his rookie year.

My first thought when researching Higgins was WR Mike Evans due to his size (6'3" and 235 lbs.), but he comes to the Dolphins with a much lower resume. His 40-yard dash (4.54) graded well when considering his build, and Higgins brings a high floor in his route running. At the very least, he gives Miami a bigger third target at wideout with a chance to slide into some action at the tight end position. His ability to block will help late in games when the Dolphins play from the lead.

Hayes gives Miami depth at left tackle. He played on one of the best offensive lines in college over the past two seasons. The next step in his development is improving vs. power rushers, especially if asked to move to guard with Miami, and handle speed rushers outside his frame. Hayes brings a solid foundation to the NFL with the hands, technique, and athletic ability to get better.

Offensive Line

Miami fell to 31st in the NFL in rushing attempts (390), leading to the 25th ranking in rushing yards (1,686) with 12 rushing touchdowns. Their rushers had 10 runs of 20 yards or more, with one gaining more than 40 yards. Their backs averaged 4.3 yards per rush, up from 3.5 in 2021.

Their offensive line allowed 35 sacks (9th). The Dolphins climbed to 4th in passing yards (4,765) with 30 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Miami led the NFL in yards per pass attempt (8.2), with the most catches (14) of 40 yards or more.

LT Terron Armstead remains a top player in pass blocking, but he missed four games last season with toe and pectoral issues. Last year he allowed only one sack with minimal pressure on the quarterback. His run blocking tends to be a slight end. LG Liam Eichenberg showed growth last season while remaining a below-par player at his position in all areas. He missed seven games in 2022 due to a knee injury. In each year in the NFL, C Connor Williams improved as a run blocker, highlighted by an exceptional season in 2022. His pass protection skill skills are now in a winning area. RG Robert Hunt is a steady, improving player with three seasons of experience with Miami. Based on the Dolphins' options at right tackle, Ryan Hayes may land the starting job.

The structure and personnel of Miami's offensive line grade well, and I expect more growth this season.

QB Tua Tagovailoa, MIA - Solid/Safe Pick

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

Tagovailoa flashed a high ceiling in multiple games last season, but he came out of the season with more questions than answers about his long-term viability in the NFL due to his bouts with concussions. After a dull showing in Week 1 (270/1), his star power at wide receiver shined through in the next week vs. Ravens, leading 469 passing yards and six touchdowns. Unfortunately, he crushed fantasy teams the following game (186/1).

In Week 4, Tagovailoa left the game early with his first concussion, costing him two weeks. After another unimpactful start (276/1) against the Steelers, his stock soared over his next three starts (401/3, 302/3, and 285/3). Miami failed to score impact touchdowns via the air in a favorable matchup vs. Houston in Week 12 (299/1). Over the next four matchups (three on the road – SF, LAC, and BUF), Tagovailoa passed for 984 yards with six touchdowns and five interceptions. He played through a bad hit against the Packers, but something was wrong based on his three bad second-half completions to Green Bay. His season ended with three more missed games with a concussion.

When on the field, Tagovailoa gained an impressive 8.9 yards per pass attempt while being on pace to pass for 4,639 yards and 33 touchdowns if he played 17 games. He finished the year with 24 rushes for 70 yards (2.9 yards per carry), following in line with his first two seasons (36/109/3 and 42/128/3 – 3.0 yards per rush) except for touchdowns.

Fantasy Outlook: I targeted Tagovailoa in many drafts as my backup quarterback last season. He finished 14th in quarterback fantasy scoring (275.40) in four-point passing touchdown formats despite missing four and a half games. Miami has two premium wideouts – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but they don't rank high in balls to throw to their running backs (73/533/6). In addition, the tight end position grades below the league average unless incoming rookie Elijah Higgins earns more snaps than expected (listed at WR at most sites). Tagovailoa projects as a backend QB1 with a risk/reward feel until he proves he can play an entire season. Upside or 30+ scores with 4,800 combined yards with 17 games played.

Other Options: Mike White, Skylar Thompson

RB De'Von Achane, MIA - Dynasty Only

Over 28 games at Texas A&M, Achane gained 2,930 combined yards with 26 touchdowns and 65 catches. His catch rate (78.3) graded well, along with his yards per rush (6.4) and catch (8.5). In 2022, he set career-highs in combined yards (1,298), touchdowns (11), and catches (36) while receiving 232 touches over 10 matchups. Achane missed two games last year with a foot issue. He finished his college career with four outstanding showings (156 combined yards with a score and seven catches, 179 combined yards with one touchdown and seven catches, 16/122/3 with three catches for one yard, and 38/215/2).

Achane returned 20 kickoffs over the past two years, leading to 30.7 yards per chance with a pair of scores.

Fantasy Outlook: He gives Miami instant insurance for Raheen Mostert based on his speed while offering a better foundation skill set catching the ball. In his rookie season, I expect him to return kicks with a chance to win RB2 touches. I don't see him earning many chances on third downs if asked to release late into the passing game. Call me intrigued, but I can't overpay for his questionable opportunity.

RB Raheem Mostert, MIA - Quality Backup

Raheem Mostert, MIA

Over his first three years in the NFL, Mostert gained only 36 yards on seven carries while bouncing between five franchises. However, he flashed off the bench in 2018, highlighted by his 7.7 yards per rush.

In 2019, Mostert teased in Week 2 (151 combined yards with a touchdown and three catches), but his next bump in chances didn't come until Week 13 (154 combined yards with a touchdown and two catches). Over his final eight games, including the playoffs, he gained 792 combined yards with 12 touchdowns and nine catches. He scored a touchdown in eight of his last nine contests, with an impressive showing in the NFC Championship game (226 combined yards with four touchdowns and two catches).

Mostert battled knee and ankle injuries in 2020, leading to eight missed games. He finished with 677 combined yards, three touchdowns, and 16 catches, averaging 5.0 yards per rush. His season started with an impact game (151 combined yards with one touchdown and four catches) with an explosive start to Week 2 (105 combined yards with one score and two catches) over 13 snaps. In 2021, he blew out his left knee on his second touch of the year, leading to surgery to repair a cartilage issue.

Despite durability concerns and a potential split opportunity, Mostert gave Miami a career-best season. He finished with 1,093 combined yards with five touchdowns and 31 catches on 211 touches over 16 games. He ranked 25th in running back scoring (170.40) in PPR leagues, with his best value coming in four games (19.20, 20.90, 18.70, and 23.10 fantasy points). Mostert rushed for more than 100 yards in two matches (18/113/1 and 17/136).

Fantasy Outlook: His speed remains intact, highlighted by his 4.9 yards per rush. Mostert will start the season at the age of 31 while coming off a career year. In the early draft season after the 2023 NFL Draft, he ranked 56th at running back while newly added Devon Achane drew RB4 status. In fantasy football, winning is extremely difficult when selecting players after peak years. Mostert makes the most sense for someone looking to handcuff the Dolphins' lead running back role. I will let him beat this season due to his career path and injury risk.

RB Myles Gaskin, MIN - Not Draft Worthy

Miles Gaskin, MIA

Gaskin went down a draft-day disappointment in 2021 despite receiving 222 touches. However, he set a career-high in catches (49) and touchdowns (7), leading to the 25th ranking in fantasy points (174.70) in PPR formats despite gaining only 3.5 yards per rush and 4.8 yards per catch, leading to a diminished role last season (10/26 with four catches for 28 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: His play in 2020 (972 combined yards with five touchdowns and 41 catches on 183 touches) gives Gaskin a chance to earn snaps if Miami has any injuries at running back. He projects as a potential running back handcuff for the Dolphins, with no one looking to roster him in 2023.

Other Options: Salvon Ahmed

UPDATE: Gaskin was released and ended up signing with the Vikings.

RB Jeffery Wilson, MIA - Quality Backup

Jeff Wilson, MIA

The Dolphins acquired Wilson midway through last season to complement Raheem Mostert. Between San Francisco and Miami, he finished his fifth season in the NFL with career highs in almost all areas. Wilson gained 1,045 combined yards with six touchdowns and 22 catches on 198 touches. His profile and success almost matched Raheem Mostert while ranking 30th in running back scoring (160.50 fantasy points) in PPR leagues. He rushed for more than 100 yards in two matchups (17/120/1 and 17/119/1). Miami used Wilson as their RB1 over their final four games last season.

Before last season, he gained 1,561 combined yards with 17 touchdowns and 35 catches on 333 touches over 37 games for the 49ers.

Fantasy Outlook: Wilson flashed multiple times in his career with San Francisco, but most viewed him as a system player in a thriving rush attack. Last year he proved to be a better overall player, giving him a chance to win the Dolphins' RB1 job over the summer. Either way, Wilson will have a challenging time securing 225 touches as Miami will rotate two backs all season. His ADP should fall in a close range with Mostert, while some fantasy drafters will gamble on the best-looking new kid on the block.

WR Tyreek Hill, MIA - Stud (low risk)

Tyreek Hill, MIA

The fear of Hill regressing after signing with Miami was a misguided thought. He set career-highs in catches (119), receiving yards (1,710), and targets (170) while regaining some of his lost momentum in yards per catch (14.4 – 11.2 in 2021). Despite playing all 17 games, he did play through some injuries – quad, foot, and ankle. Hill finished second at wide receiver in fantasy points (347.30) in PPR formats while gaining over 100 receiving yards in seven matchups (11/190/2, 10/160, 12/177, 12/188, 7/143/1, 9/146/1, and 4/103). His best play came on the road (79/1,079/6).

Over his last 92 games over six seasons, Hill averaged 5.8 catches for 89.5 yards and 0.66 touchdowns (18.75 FPPG).

To reach a higher ceiling scoring, Miami needs Tua Tagovailoa to improve throwing touchdowns close to the goal line. Last year Hill had five targets inside the five-yard line and six inside the 10-yard line (5/9 in 2021 and 6/12 in 2020). In addition, his value as a runner in 2022 (7/32/1) regressed for the second consecutive year (9/96 in 2021 and 13/123/2 in 2020).

Fantasy Outlook: The success and ceiling of Hill lie in the development and health of his young, rising quarterback. His final 2022 stats price him as a top-five wideout selected in the early draft season this year in the high-stakes market. Miami has Mike White and Skylar Thompson fighting for their backup quarterback job this year, so buyers beware if Tagovailoa has another concussion. Based on his last two seasons, Hill has a floor of 100 catches for 1,300 yards with a chance at double-digit scores.