2020 Las Vegas Raiders Outlook
Las Vegas Raiders
Coaching Staff
In his second year coaching the Las Vegas Raiders, Jon Gruden went 7-9 with growth on both sides of the ball. They improved by three wins from 2018 (4-12). Las Vegas inherits a team that missed the playoffs in 16 of their last 17 seasons.
Over 13 seasons as the head coach for the Bucs and the Raiders, Gruden went 106-102 with five playoff appearances and a Super Bowl victory.
Las Vegas needs this team to make a playoff push to move forward in 2020.
Greg Olson returns as the offensive coordinator, which was a position he held with the team in 2013 and 2014. Olson worked with Jon Gruden in Tampa in 2008 as an offensive coordinator. He has 16 years of experience in the NFL, with 12 coming as an offensive coordinator.
The Raiders climbed to 24th in points scored (313) with a much stronger move in yards gained (11th – 23rd in 2018).
Paul Guenther gets his third season to run the defense for Las Vegas. Guenther has 17 years of NFL coaching experience with his last six coming as the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals and the Raiders.
The Raiders have ranked below 20th in yards allowed in each of the last six seasons while being never higher than 20th in points allowed in their previous 12 years.
Free Agency
Las Vegas signed four players (LB Cory Littleton, S Damarious Randall, LB Nick Kwiatkoski, and DT Maliek Collins) to upgrade their defense with all players expected to start. The Raiders also added DE Carl Nassib and S Jeff Heath for depth on the bench.
Littleton plays well in coverage while struggling to make plays vs. the run. Randall made the switch from cornerback to safety, which suits him better. Kwiatkoski projects as a rotational player on passing downs. Collins continues to fall short of expectations while playing better, rushing the quarterback.
The defense lost LB Tahir Whitehead, DE Benson Mayowa, S Curtis Riley, DE Dion Jordan, and LB Vontaze Burfict. Whitehead was the only starter lost, but his play hasn't been impactful over the past three seasons.
They brought in Marcus Mariota to compete for the starting quarterback job. The addition of WR Nelson Agholor looks like an afterthought based on their decision in this year's draft. The Raiders brought in TE Jason Witten and RB DeAndre Washington.
Draft
With their first two draft choices in the 2020 NFL Draft, the Raiders invested in WR Henry Ruggs and CB Damon Arnette.
Ruggs is slightly undersized (5"11" and 188 lbs.), which will hurt him vs. press coverage out of the gate. His lack of resume will push him down draft boards, but there is no questioning Ruggs' talent. His hands will be assets while proving to be a player that can be used at all levels of the offense. Ruggs will be viable on bubble screens, slants, and deep end cuts where his speed creates impact plays. He'll break tackles and create after the catch. Alabama used his speed on quick-hitting plays as well at the goal line.
Arnette gains value as the field shortens thanks to his ability to win in press coverage. He'll add strength in run support. His vision is a plus while needing to improve his decision making when moving forward in attack mode. Arnette can lose value vs. deep speed.
Las Vegas picked up a pair of playmakers in the third round – Lynn Bowden and Bryan Edwards.
Bowden needs to improve route running, but he does play with toughness and a feel for open space. The Raiders would like for him to develop into a third-down option out of the backfield while doing the most damage over the short areas of the field. A wild card player who doesn't have a clear role/opportunity in his rookie season.
Edwards should be an intriguing wide receiver at the next level. His size (6'3" and 210 lbs.) paired with his strength and speed should rank him much higher on the WR prospect list.
He has the feel of a big, physical wide receiver in the NFL with the route running and release to win over the short areas of the field. Edwards has the wheels to get on top of some cornerbacks in the deep passing game. His hands should improve with more chances at the next level while already owning the ability to snatch tough passes in traffic. He'll make some spectacular catches with one hand.
With their final three picks in the third and fourth rounds, the Raiders drafted S Tanner Muse, G John Simpson, and CB Amik Robertson.
Muse comes to the NFL with a tweener feel. His straight speed (4.41 forty) graded well while owning the strength to make plays in the run game when moving forward. He's better as a quick-moving linebacker due to his shortfalls with his change of direction value and in coverage.
Simpson brings power, vision, and technique to the guard position, but his missing link (first step quickness) lowers his ceiling and ability to win quickly after the snap. Simpson can't overcome his shortfalls, which leads to mistakes in his decision making and bad penalties.
Robertson may lack size (5'8" and 187 lbs.), but he plays hard with plenty of fight. His best value comes from his feel from the game. He should add value in coverage if he can avoid matching up with the top receivers on the outside. Robertson will struggle with big wide receivers and speed options in the deep passing game.
Offensive Line
Las Vegas improved to 13th in rushing yards (1,893) with 13 rushing TDs. They averaged 4.3 yards per rush with 13 TDs and 11 rushes over 20 yards.
The Raiders bumped to 13th in passing yards (4,110) with 22 TDs and eight Ints. They gained 7.9 yards per pass attempt with 54 completions over 20 yards. Their offensive line allowed 29 sacks and 52 QB hits.
LT Kolten Miller
Miller played much better in his second year in the NFL after Las Vegas selected him 15th overall in 2018. His foot speed and quickness should improve his chances in the run game. In 2018, he struggled to fulfill his draft value in pass protection. Miller still allows too many sacks, but he did show growth last year.
LG Richie Incognito
After missing 2018 with his early retirement, Incognito played great in pass protection while still adding value to the run. When at the top of his game, He'll start the year at age 37, which invites some regression. The Raiders thought enough of his play to sign him to a two-year contract in December for $14.
C Rodney Hudson
Houston was one of the top pass-blocking centers in the NFL every year in his career while reaching a higher level over the past three seasons. He did show regression as a run blocker while playing well in this area over the past seven seasons.
RG Gabe Jackson
Despite playing well in every season in the NFL in pass blocking, Jackson has regressed slightly in each year in the league. His 2019 season started with five missed with a knee issue. He did struggle to find his rhythm in run blocking last year.
RT Trent Brown
The Raiders shifted Brown to right tackle in 2019. He missed the final four games of the year due to a pectoral injury. When on the field, Brown played well in pass protection while fading midseason as run blocker.
Offensive Line Outlook
The interior of this offensive line ranks highly in all positions, with pass protection being the stronger side of the equation. The Raiders need Miller to show growth on every down to reach a higher level offensively. An outside chance at a top ten offensive line.
QB Derek Carr, LVR - Bust (overvalued)
After leading the Raiders to the playoffs in 2016 (12-3 with 28 TDs), Carr has improved, but his team struggled to win games (17-31). Last year he set a career-high in completion rate (70.4) and yards per pass attempt (7.9).
Las Vegas needs better production at WR after ranking 30th in catches (145) and receiving yards (1858) in 2019.
Carr has the skill set to be a winning game manager, but his value falls short of expectation when his offense becomes one dimensional when forced to throw.
TE Darren Waller was a pleasant surprise last season, and Las Vegas added three more WRs (Henry Ruggs, Lynn Bowden, and Bryan Edwards) with three of their first four picks in this year's draft.
Ruggs has the tools to hit the ground running after getting drafted in the first round, and I'm a big fan of Edwards. Carr threw one TD or fewer in ten of his 16 starts last year.
His early projections came to 4,125 combined yards with 27 TDs and 11 Ints, which look to be on the low side if his rookie wide receiving core develops as expected in 2020.
QB Marcus Mariota, ATL - Deep-league Only
By signing Mariota to a two-year contract for $17.6 million in the season, the Raiders buy veteran insurance plus add a younger option to their quarterback stable in case they decide to move on from Carr after this year.
Mariota posted a 29-32 record over five seasons with the Titans. His only year of value came in 2016 (3,775 combined yards with 28 TDs and nine Ints). He'll add value in the run game (242/1399/11 in his career) while showing improved accuracy in 2018 (68.9 percent).
If the Raiders happened to turn to him as a starter, I don't expect any statistical regression.
RB Josh Jacobs, LVR - Solid/Safe Pick
Jacobs played through a shoulder injury last year, which may have cost him more value in the passing game.
His play was much better at home over seven games (809 combined yards with seven TDs and 12 catches) while failing to score on the road. Jacobs had eight runs over 20 yards and a pair of carries that gained over 40 yards.
The Raiders gave him over 20 touches or more in six of his 13 starts, which led to 20.2 chances per contest. Jacobs rushed for over 100 yards in five games (26/123/2, 21/124, 28/120/2, 23/112, and 17/104) while adding an impact showing in Week 1 (113 combined yards with two TDs and one catch).
His season ended in Week 15 with his shoulder issue.
In 2020, Jacobs will be drafted as a borderline top 12 RB with his ceiling tied to growth in the passing games. Out of the gate, I have Jacobs projected for 1,638 combined yards with ten TDs and 24 catches.
RB Jalen Richard, --- - Deep-league Only
Over the previous three seasons, Richard had success in his yards per catch (9.5, 8.9, and 9.0). The change at lead RB for the Raiders in 2019 led to a sharp decline in chance (75). Richard didn't score a TD last year.
Las Vegas completed 98 balls to their RBs in 2019 for 825 yards and one TD. This year he'll have to hold off Lynn Bowden for the passing catching job on third downs.
WR Bryan Edwards, ATL - Dynasty Only
Over four seasons at South Carolina, Edwards caught 234 balls for 3,045 yards and 22 TDs. His best season in catches (71) came in 2019, yards in 2018 (846), and TDs (7) in 2018. He missed his last two contests last year and suffered a broken foot before the NFL combine.
Edwards should be an interesting wide receiver at the next level. His size (6'3" and 210 lbs.) paired with his strength and speed should rank him much higher on the WR prospect list.
He has the feel of a big, physical wide receiver in the NFL with the route running and release to win over the short areas of the field. Edwards has the wheels to get on top of some cornerbacks in the deep passing game. His hands should improve with more chances at the next level while already owning the ability to snatch tough passes in traffic. He'll make some spectacular catches with one hand.
Edwards can bounce off defenders or beat them with his speed. He'll win in space in many one-on-one matchups while also showing some value as an open-field runner.
I expect his ceiling in the NFL to be higher than his college resume, but his role/opportunity has a wide range of outcomes in 2020. An excellent bench flier in fantasy leagues if he works his way into a top-three wide receiver job for the Raiders.
WR Hunter Renfrow, LVR - Deep-league Only
After quiet first six games of the year (14/115/0 on 26 targets), Renfrow flashed over his next two games (4/88/1 and 6/54/1).
A broken rib knocked him out of the lineup from Week 13 to Week 15. Over the final two contests, the Raiders gave him nine targets per game, leading to success both weeks (7/107/1 and 6/102/1).
He came to the NFL with a possession type skill-set. The wide receiving core for Las Vegas is much deeper after this year's draft class, which puts Renfrow on a path for 55 catches for 600 yards with short TDs. More of a bye week cover.
