2020 Kansas City Chiefs Outlook
WR Sammy Watkins, BAL - Bust (overvalued)
After a great start in Week 1 (9/198/3), Watkins failed to capitalize on the WR Tyreek Hill injury. From Week 2 to Week 17, he caught only 43 passes for 475 yards and no TDs on 79 targets.
Watkins posted a zero in Week 4 after leaving the game early and another empty showing in Week 13.
Over his down stretch, he gained 50 yards or fewer in ten games despite continuing to receive WR2 snaps for the Chiefs. Watkins plays in a high-scoring offense, but his inconsistency makes him a tough start even as a rotational WR4 in PPR leagues. Only 49 catches for 651 yards and five TDs.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)
After an empty first game of the year, Hardman made some plays over the next two weeks (4/61/1 and 2/97/1) as short term cover for the injured WR Tyreek Hill.
He struggled to get starting snaps most of the year while finishing behind WR Demarcus Robinson as the WR4 for the Chiefs.
Over his final 13 games, including the playoffs, Hardman only had 14 catches for 276 yards and four TDs on 20 targets.
Talented big-play WR who needs to secure a more significant piece of the offense to become a viable fantasy starter. The key here is passing WR Sammy Watkins on the depth chart. In the right offense, while waiting for his ticket to be punched more often. More of a flier than a target unless something breaks his way in training camp.
For now, I only see 43 catches for 754 yards and six TDs.
TE Travis Kelce, KC - Stud (low risk)
Kelce is one of a few tight ends that has a WR1 opportunity. Last year he posted his 4th straight season with over 1,000 receiving while averaging 92 catches over this stretch. Kelce led TEs and the Chiefs in targets (136).
With Patrick Mahomes battling ankle and knee issues, Tyreek Hill missing some time, and a drop-down in RB play, KC scored 20 fewer passing TDs than 2018 (50).
In 2019, Kelce earned his fantasy edge by being more consistent (ten games with six catches or more and 70 yards receiving or more) than explosive (only five TDs and two games with over 100 yards receiving).
Target to own. Look for the Chiefs' offense to regain its stride this year with Kelce poised to repeat his recent floor with rebound TDs. I set his first projections at 100 catches for 1,211 yards and eight TDs.
PK Harrison Butker, KC - Stud (low risk)
Butker is off to a great start to his NFL career while back drafting Justin Tucker in field goal percentage (89.7 – 2nd highest all-time). In 2019, he led the league in kicker scoring (175.1), field goals made (34), and field goal attempts (38).
The Chiefs scored 12 fewer TDs from their RBs while scoring 22 fewer overall touchdowns last year compared to their explosive success in 2018 (69 extra-points). Great runner up prize at kicker, but I expect a slight drop in FGs this season, which comes from regaining some of their lost value in TDs.
Kansas City - Solid/Safe Pick
The strength in the defensive line sets the tone of the second and third levels on the Chiefs' defense. If Kansas City doesn't shorten the passing window, they do have risk in coverage in the deep passing game. I don't see an impact player as of now at the linebacker position, which invites more struggles vs. the run.
Game score will force offenses to be one dimensional many times in 2020, which helps create sacks and turnovers. Viable starting fantasy defense when facing second-tier quarterbacks and weaker offensive line.