Week 1: Sell High

I find it more and more difficult to come up with these preseason predictions each year. Until we see some real time action, it's hard to tell who is going to produce and who isn't. For many of these players their own abilities have nothing to do with their success or lack there of. A key injury to an offensive lineman, quarterback or even a defensive player can often times play a huge role.

As I look forward to this season, I find that some players who were selected in the early rounds of fantasy drafts just don't make sense to me. I wonder how much of the hype around certain players has played a role in when they were drafted. To me I'd rather take a guy who is proven but has less of a chance of becoming an all star than players who could be huge but may not pan out. If you haven't seen a guy play a down in the NFL, then why would you draft him to fill one of your starting positions?

QB Aaron Rodgers, GB

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After a long, drawn out preseason the Packers finally got what they wanted. Favre has moved on to the Jets' greener pastures, or so he thinks, and Rodgers will get his first NFL start. Throughout the preseason all we heard about was Favre this, Favre that, how poor Rodgers looked at camp or if you were not a Favre fan, then how well Rodgers looked. Well the time for Aaron has come to put up or shut up. There are many questions surrounding Rodgers and they can only be answered on the field. Week 1 the Pack will host what many believe is the team to beat in the NFC North, the Minnesota Vikings. This should be a good test for Aaron. The Vikings' defense is expected to be one of the league's best. They stop the run well (which means lots of opportunities for Aaron to shine or fizzle). While one game does not a season make, I believe for Rodgers to be successful he has to play well. Keep the Pack in the game and don't turn the ball over. The regular season is a bird of a different color and replacing a future Hall of Famer won't be easy.

RB Darren McFadden, ---

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After the season Adrian Peterson had last year, everyone decided to jump all over McFadden. I guess the thought is if Peterson could do it last year, why can't McFadden do it this season? I suppose anything is possible, but I don't think it's in the cards for McFadden. For starters, the passing game in Oakland is not good. Not to say I put a lot of stock in the preseason, but with Russell looking this bad, it's a tad bit concerning. You should also factor in the Raiders' weak offensive line. They claim to be better at run blocking than pass blocking. For McFadden owners, you should be hoping they're right. When we look at McFadden's final numbers, I'm sure they'll be better than I expect, but right now his stock is high. If you have running back depth, don't be afraid to make the move.

RB Michael Turner, ---

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Turner was one player I stayed as far away from as possible in all my drafts this year. While I think he has the potential to be a very solid back, there was just too much hype surrounding him. I don't see how owners were so willing to snatch him up in the third round. Over his 4 year career, Turner has carried the ball 228 times for 1257 yards and he's reached the end zone 6 times. If these were stats for a single season the numbers would be great, but they're not and in fact most (if not all) of these carries came during "garbage" time when the Chargers had the game well in hand and they didn't want to risk injury to Tomlinson. I don't want to say Turner will be a complete dud, but I'm not sold on him being as great as many owners think. I recall a very similar situation to this a couple of years ago when Lamont Jordan moved from back-up duties on the Jets to a starting role in Oakland. Everyone thought Jordan would be great and well, we all know how that turned out. In addition, we have to take into consideration the number of touches Jerious Norwood will get. Norwood has averaged .7 yards per carry better than Turner through his career. I'm envisioning the thunder and lightning approach in Atlanta this season. Unless you have both backs, it may be wise to steer clear.

WR Lee Evans, ---

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To me, Lee Evans is the guy I hate to love. A few years back when I started a dynasty league with some friends, I drafted Evans as one of my primary receivers. I thought with a solid run game and a descent quarterback, Evans would be a very solid receiver by now. Had I known then what I know now, I would have looked elsewhere. Year after year Evans has disappointed me and many fantasy owners with his lack of consistency. One week he has 6 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown and the next game he has 2 for 21 yards. It's inconsistent play like this that drives fantasy owners crazy. In many leagues, Evans will be thought of as a starting receiver. For that reason he holds a good deal of value. However, when the season starts and owners see his inconsistent play, they'll think twice about using him for anything more than a bye week filler. When that happens his value plummets with it ,so get something good while he still holds value.

WR Roddy White, ---

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The only knock I have against White is that he's playing in Atlanta this season. Put him on 30 other teams and I think he once again finishes the season with over 1,000 yards, but in Atlanta this year I don't see it happening. The Falcons have a completely retooled offense this year. A new running back, a new quarterback and a rookie quarterback to boot. I know White had to deal with Harrington, Leftwich and Redman last year but at least these three had some NFL experience. Maybe next season once Ryan has a year under his belt White will be a valuable fantasy receiver again. This year however, I would hesitate to play him unless the match-up is favorable and only when my primary receivers have a bye.

Remember to read all our columns for this week and use our Who To Start Rankings