2015 Team Outlook: Seattle Seahawks
WR Doug Baldwin, --- - Bye Week Fill-in
Week 14 DFS Update (12/12): Baldwin has been a stud in his last four games (24 catches, 433 yards and six TDs on 31 targets). Over six games from Week 2 to Week 8, he only had 17 catches for 218 yards and one TD on 23 targets. It just makes you wonder why the Seahawks didn't get him involved in the offense earlier. On the year, he has two 100-yard receiving games and eight TDs with only 5.9 targets per game. His catch rate (77.4) is in elite area. The Ravens moved to 27th in the league in WR Fantasy defense, with two strong games in their last four contests (5/42 and 5/68/1). Baltimore had two bad games defending WRs earlier in the year (20/282/3 and 17/349/3). On the year WRs have 19 TDs vs. them. Priced really low based on his recent success, but his low targets does invite failure.
Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): Baldwin was the top WR in Week 12 thanks to a late 80-yard TD. He caught six of his eight targets for 145 yards and three TDs. Over his last three games he has 19 catches for 339 yards and four TDs on 24 targets. On the year, he has two 100-yard receiving games and six TDs, while averaging only 5.8 targets per game. The Vikings rank 11th in the league WR Fantasy defense, with WRs catching only 56.4 percent of their chances with 10 TDs. CB Caption Munnerlyn has done a nice job defending WRs in the slot. Baldwin's recent success and price point will lead to him looking like a value play, but this isn't an impactful matchup.
With Golden Tate and Percy Harvin having departed over the past year, Baldwin is the Seahawks' No. 1 WR. However, his skill set still projects him to be a No. 3 wideout who works out of the slot. In 2014, Doug set career highs in catches (66), receiving yards (825) and targets (98). Including the playoffs, he finished with three 100-yard outings and recorded at least five catches in seven games. Baldwin ranked 46th in WR targets and 43rd at his position in PPR leagues. He led all of Seattle's receivers with 66 catches, 28 more than the next best option. This year, Doug is expected to be the No. 2 option in the passing game behind Graham. With Seattle ranking near the bottom of the league in pass attempts, Baldwin has no real upside, even though he will see a lot of single coverage in 2015. He's a low-upside WR4 in season-long games. I expect 55 catches for 750 yards and a few TDs.
WR Jermaine Kearse, --- - Low Potential
Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): Kearse only has 15 catches for 277 yards and three TDs on 25 targets in his last eight games. He flashed a pulse in Week 12 (4/47/2), but his TD production isn't repeatable. Some big play ability, but his targets remain well below a winning opportunity.
In his best collegiate season at the University of Washington, Kearse caught 63 passes for 1,005 yards and 12 touchdowns. Kearse started 14 games in 2014 with the Seahawks, but he finished with only 38 catches, 537 yards and one TD on 69 targets. His best game of the year came during the divisional round of the playoffs as he nabbed three passes for 129 yards and a score. Over the last two years, Jermaine has recorded more than three catches in a game only three times. Kearse is a big-play WR, but he doesn't see enough targets to have any starting Fantasy value in season-long leagues.
Seattle Seahawks WR Jermaine Kearse
WR Paul Richardson, --- - Dynasty Only
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In his 2013 junior year at Colorado, Richardson caught 83 passes for 1,343 yards and 10 TDs. He is an undersized yet speedy receiver who will need to add more strength to have success in the NFL. In his rookie year, Paul caught 29 of his 44 targets for 271 yards and one touchdown. His value started to rise in the last two games of the regular season; he caught five passes in each and gained a combined 112 yards. he had two games with five catches for a combined 112 yards. He tore his left ACL during the playoffs and may not be healthy when the season begins.
WR Chris Matthews, --- - Deep-league Only
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After catching no passes during the regular season with only 19 snaps, Matthews was the Seahawks' secret weapon in the Super Bowl. He caught four of his five targets for 109 yards and scored once. Chris displayed his upside in 2012 in the Canadian Football League when he caught 81 passes for 1,192 yards and seven TDs. His 6-foot-5, 218-pound frame makes him an interesting figure in this offense, but he has to prove over the course of this season that his performance in February was no fluke.
TE Jimmy Graham, CHI - Stud (low risk)
UPDATE (11/17): Much like everyone in Seattle, Graham has disappointed this Fantasy season. With that said, he is still a top-10 Fantasy TE, so it hasn't been a disaster. What's killing him is the fact that he's only caught two TDs. You can certainly live with 41 receptions and 491 yards. Those numbers are a bit down, but nothing drastic. Graham has averaged 13 touchdowns per season over the last two years. He's on pace this season to catch three or four. When you watch the Seahawks, it just looks like they don't know how to use him. Only four times this season has he topped 50 yards and has only reached five receptions four times. Fantasy owners need him to pick it up and quickly.
Graham had a great start to his career with the Saints. In his last 63 games, he's accumulated 355 catches on 551 targets for 4,396 yards and 46 TDs. That translates to 5.6 catches for 70 yards and 0.73 TDs per game, or 16.98 Fantasy points per game in the FFWC's scoring system. His success has made him a first-round Fantasy pick at times over the past three years. Last season, Seattle attempted only 454 passes in the regular season (28.4 per game), which led to 287 completions (17.9 per game) and 1.2 passing scores per game. Based on this data, Graham would have to account for 31.2 percent of Wilson's total completions in order to post a stat line comparable to the ones that are already on his resume. By comparison, Drew Brees has averaged 28 completions and 2.5 TDs per game over the past four years. Jimmy's value is going to be one of the toughest calls for Fantasy owners this draft season. I expect a wide range of opinions on him. His early ADP is 26, making him the second tight end selected. I respect Graham, and Wilson has to be excited to have a legit receiving option available to him for the first time in his career. I say Graham will catch 65 percent of his 120 or so targets. Eighty receptions for 900-plus yards and a chance at double-digit TDs should be expected. He's still a top-24 Fantasy player in my mind, but he could turn in some poor numbers in games where Seattle's defense dominates and allows the offense to just run out the clock.
Seattle Seahawks TE Jimmy Graham
PK Steven Hauschka, --- - Stud (low risk)
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Hauschka hit 88.9 and 94.3 percent of his field goal attempts in 2012 and 2013, respectively. However, his percentage fell to 83.8 last year, largely because he hit only 11 of his 17 attempts from 40 yards or longer. Steven has converted at least 30 field goals and has ranked among the top 10 kickers in Fantasy scoring in each of the past two seasons. For his career, Hauschka has made nine of his 17 kicks from 50 yards or longer. Seattle's offense tends to run the ball well, but its lack of receiving talent leads to many stalled drives. The Seahawks scored 31 FGs and 43 TDs on their 178 possessions last year. I'm a fan of a kicker on a team with a solid defense. Regardless, Steven has an excellent chance of being a top-five kicker this year, especially with the questions about Seattle's offensive line.