2015 Team Outlook: Washington Redskins

I wonder if Washington Redskins owner Daniel Snyder will ever bring glory back to the once-mighty Redskins. The last two years have been just brutal. They have gone 7-25 while being outscored by 281 points. Their offense finished 13th in total yards (358.6), but they only scored 301 points (26th). Head coach Jay Gruden returns for his second year, but his window will be short. He is battling a fine line between starting QB Robert Griffin and the owner. Sean McVay is the offensive coordinator for the second season. McVay has been with the Redskins since 2010. Joe Barry will take over as the defensive coordinator. He has been a coach in the NFL for 14 years. Joe has two years of experience running a defense. Washington allowed the 29th-most points (438) with their defense allowing 357 yards per game. The Redskins have only made the playoffs four times in the last 22 years after winning three Super Bowls from 1982 to 1991 with Joe Gibbs as the head coach.

Free Agency

Starting G Chris Chester signed with the Falcons. His value has been on the decline over the last couple of years. Chester played poorly in run blocking while allowing five sacks, three QB hits, and 16 QB hurries. T Tyler Polumbus also left to play with Atlanta. He allowed eight sacks and 13 QB hurries last year.

Washington's defense lost CB E.J. Biggers and LB Brian Orakpo. Biggers struggled in pass coverage over the last two years as a part-time player. Orakpo missed the last nine games of 2014 with a torn right pectoral muscle. He's been a plus pass-rusher in his career with occasional value against the run.

They added CB Chris Culliver, S Dashon Goldson, DE Stephen Paea, NT Terrance Knighton, and DE Ricky Jean-Francois. In essence, the Redskins gained four possible starting players. Culliver had his best season in pass coverage in 2014. He allowed 37 catches for 468 yards with four TDs and four INTs on 73 passing attempts. Goldson is coming off a brutal season against the run and pass (23/33 for 371 yards and two TDs). Paea could be a nice upgrade to the pass rush. Last year he has five sacks, 11 QB hits, and 31 QB hurries. His success was a huge step up from 2013. Stephen tends to be a liability against the run. Knighton was a plus defender over the last two years for the Broncos. Last year his value in the pass rush was minimal (two sacks, six QB hits, and 10 QB hurries). Jean-Francois is nothing more than a league average player with more downside than upside.

Backup RB Roy Helu left to play with the Raiders. His value came in the passing game.

Draft

In the first round, Washington drafted G Brandon Scherff. Scherff should be an exceptional run blocker with value in pass protection. Brandon plays with power with surprising speed for his position.

DE Preston Smith was added with their second pick. Smith has speed and athleticism with his best value will come against the run. His lack of first step and strength limit his upside.

With Washington's third pick, they decided on RB Matt Jones. He'll offer a similar skill set to RB Alfred Morris as the Redskins give you the feeling that they want to pound the ball. Jones runs with power with limited experience in the passing game. Matt should be an asset on pass protection.

Fourth round pick WR Jamison Crowder is an undersized (5'8"and 185 lbs.) receiver with questionable top-end speed and a need for more strength. His best asset is his quickness and he has value as a route runner. Crowder may have future value in the return game.

With their second pick in the fourth round, Washington added another option to their offensive line – G Arie Kouandjio. His draft value was somewhat rewarded by the company he played with in Alabama. Arie has limited upside with his only possible value coming in the run game.

In the fifth, LB Martrell Spaight will add value in run defense, but his lack of speed limits his upside. S Kyshoen Jarrett and CB Tevin Mitchel were both drafted in the sixth round. Jarrett will only have value attacking the line of scrimmage against the run. His game has weakness in pass coverage. Mitchel has average CB speed with solid quickness. He'll compete for backup role.

With their last two picks, the Redskins selected WR Evan Spencer and C Austin Reiter. Spencer doesn't have one defining edge with his only chance of playing time coming as a slot option. Reiter looks like a project with possible upside down the road.

Washington Redskins OT Brandon Scherff

Offensive Line

The Redskins finished 19th in rushing yards (1,691) with 1,453 yards coming for the RB position. They averaged 4.2 yards per rush with 15 rushing TDs.

LG Trent Williams was drafted in the first round in 2010. He was an exceptional as a run and pass blocker in 2013. Last year, he allowed four sacks, seven QB hits, and 14 QB hurries with a slight edge as a run blocker. Trent battled a knee injury over the last three months of 2014.

LG Shawn Lauvao was nothing more than league average last year. He allowed two sack, three QB hits, and 20 QB hurries.

C Kory Lichtensteiger hasn't been an impact player in his seven seasons in the league. Last year he was a slight edge in the running game. Kory allowed one sack, one QB hit, and 14 QB hurries.

RG Spencer Long was selected in the third round in 2014. He was only the field for 18 plays last year. He appears to be the frontrunner for the starting right tackle job.

RT Brandon Scherff was the Redskins first round draft pick this season. He has upside as a power run blocker with his pass blocking a step behind.

Washington allowed 58 sacks in 2014. They finished 11th in passing yards (4,047). They gained 8.2 yards per pass, but only managed 18 passing TDs while throwing 18 INTs.

This line has two talented players with one needing to prove himself in his rookie season. The massive sack total in 2014 was a huge problem and one that needs to be corrected immediately. The run blocking projects to be only league average.

Schedule: Offensive

The above data shows the strength of schedule as far as rushing attempts (RATT), rushing yards (YDS), yards per attempt rushing (YA), rushing TDs touchdowns (TDs), completions (COMP), passing attempts (PATT), passing yards (YDS), yards per attempt passing (YA), and passing TDs (TDS).

This information is based on 2014, which will work as our starting point for 2015. We'll look at all the changes on offense on each team in the NFL plus the upgrades and downgrades on each team on the defensive side. We'll update this table when we finish the research on all 32 teams.

2014 Average: The league average of all stats from all 32 teams in 2014.

2014 Results: This is the results for each team in the NFL.

2015 Adjustment: Based on the 2014 league average and the 2014 results for each team, this number will show if each team is above or below the league average in each stat and the basis for strength of schedule.

The Redskins have three favorable games against the run – NO and NYG (X 2). They'll face only one team with a tough run defense – Jets. Washington has 13 teams matchups against teams with a below average pass defense. Their two bad games against the pass are Buffalo and Miami.

QB Kirk Cousins, ATL - Deep-league Only

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Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): In his 12 starts this year, Cousins has 10 games with only one passing TD and two games with three TDs or more (both at home). He has four 300-yard passing games. Chicago is just above the league average in QB Fantasy points, with one team scoring over 30 Fantasy points. Solid completion rate (68.6) with talent at WR and TE, but both teams in this game will rather be balanced on offense.

Week 13 DFS Update (12/3): Cousins has over 300 yards passing in his last three games at home, with two games with four TDs. On the year he has eight games with only one passing TD. The Cowboys continue to play well defending QBs. They rank 6th in the league, with their last six opponents scoring fewer than 20 Fantasy points. QBs have 11 passing TDs vs. the Cowboys, with one 300-yard passing game. Both teams will run the ball in a ball control style of offense. Playing well at home, but this isn't a great matchup.

UPDATE (10/3): Despite earning the starting job in Washington, Kirk Cousins remains a tenuous Fantasy option. He only has value in 2QB leagues. The NFC East isn't known for their defense so Cousins will occasionally shine. That said, this offense has a long way to go before you should consider adding him to your bench.

I know many Washington fans and possibly the Redskins staff are pining for Cousin to start. Kirk is pocket passer with a quicker release and better decision making pre-snap. When compared to Griffin, Cousin was sacked only eight times in his 204 pass attempts (Griffin was sacked 33 times on his 214 pass attempts). This stat alone will give Washington a better chance of avoiding negative plays. In his five starts, Kirk threw for 2,780 yards (292 yards per game) with three games with two TDs or more. Unfortunately, Cousins has committed too many mistakes (19 INTs in 16 games) while struggling to win games (2-7). His arm has upside and his game is strong enough to steal the starting job from RGIII if he falters. Last year, Kirk averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempts, which is an attractive number, while competing 61.8 percent of his passes. Cousins is a player to keep an eye on with QB2 value when starting.

QB Robert Griffin III, --- - Gamble (high risk)

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UPDATE (10/3): Barring an injury to Kirk Cousins, RG3's career appears to be over in Washington. Look for him to land on his feet somewhere else in 2016. There are plenty of teams who need help at the position.

The lack of success by Griffin was real frustrating to fantasy owners and even more to coach Gruden in 2014. When given time to throw, Robert completed a career high 68.7 percent of his passes while gaining a solid 7.9 yards per pass attempt. His lack of success was due to a huge onslaught of pressure from the opposing defense (33 sacks). In his last six starts, Griffin was sacked 28 times. He never threw more than one TD in any game and his value as a runner was a career-low (4.6 yards per rush). Many of his failures against the pass rush were a result of him not getting the ball out quickly. The coaching staff lost faith in him, but he has the owner in his court. With a full offseason to get his legs back in shape and a possible upgrade in the offensive line, Robert could be in position to reach his upside potential. The Redskins have two strong WRs and an above average TE if Jordan Reed stays healthy. In the early draft season, he had an ADP of 154 as the 27th QB off the table. He seems like a misplaced asset. Washington will throw the ball and any yards gained on the ground count double in most formats. I like him as an upside gamble as a backup fantasy QB, but I would also roster a third option for insurance. With a full-time job for 16 games, Griffin should throw for 3,500-plus yards with 600-plus yards rushing. With improved play, 25-plus combined TDs are well within reach.

Washington Redskins QB Robert Griffin III

RB Matt Jones, --- - Super Sleeper (high risk/potential)

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Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): Jones only had 54 combined yards in Week 13, but he was the Washington back with the most snaps (40) and touches (19). He has two impact games (32.60 and 30.70 Fantasy points in DraftKings scoring). The Bears are about league average defending the RB position, with two teams scoring over 30 Fantasy points. RBs gain 4.7 YPC with six TDs to the RB position. High upside player, but he needs the whole show to deliver a winning score. Possible dark horse.

Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): Jones has been the odd man out of the RB rotation for the Redskins over the last two weeks. He only has 16 touches for 76 yards, while being on the field for 36 plays, compared to 45 by Morris and 37 by Thompson. He has two impact games (146 combined yards, two TDs and three catches and 187 combined yards with a TD and three catches), but there are too many Indians in this battle for playing time.

UPDATE (10/3): The preseason praise directed at Matt Jones was legit. The rookie went off in Week 2, carrying the ball 19 times for 123 yards and two TDs. He also added three catches for 23 yards. This backfield though remains divided with Alfred Morris still leading the team in carries and rushing yardage. Jones is a solid flex play when the matchup is right, but he doesn't quite have the role to merit him becoming an automatic starter. If Morris goes down, Jones would be a great RB2. Until then, owners should hold and stash the former Florida Gators running back.

Jones will bring a pounding style to the Redskins offense. His resume isn't anything special over three seasons at Florida. Matt ran for 1,431 yards on 297 carries with 11 TDs. He also caught 19 passes for 100 yards with one TD. His best season was 2014 when he gained 882 combined yards with seven TDs. Jones will backup Morris this year with minimal upside depending on injury. His game has similar qualities as Alfred so he'll help wear down the defense when he is on the field.

The third-down back for the Redskins may emerge from the battle between RBs Silas Redd & Chris Thompson. Redd only had 16 carries in 2014 for 75 yards with one TD plus he caught eight passes for 107 yards on 10 targets. In his four-year college career, Silas ran for 2,959 yards on 569 carries with 19 rushing TDs. He caught 32 passes for 225 yards and two TDs. His resume isn't elite, but Washington will need to use someone as the change-of-pace back with possible value in the passing game. Thompson is an undersized back (5'7" and 193 lbs.) with only nine touches in his six games over two years in the league. At Florida State over four years, Chris ran for 1,735 yards on 277 carries with 14 TDs. He caught 45 passes for 430 yards with one TD. I would place my bet on Redd if I was looking for a deep flier.

RB Alfred Morris, --- - Solid/Safe Pick

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Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): The Redskins gave Morris 24 touches in Week 12, leading to 90 combined yards with one catch. On the year he is averaging only 3.6 YPC with no games of value while being shutout in the TD department. Last season Morris had 147 combined yards with a TD and three catches in two games vs. the Cowboys. Dallas allows the 6th-most Fantasy points to RBs (4.1 YPC and 11 TDs). His playing time can't be trusted and Jones may still steal his goal line chances.

UPDATE (10/3): Alfred Morris held down this starting job since he came into the league four years ago. After a great Week 1, Morris took a backseat to Matt Jones. This looks like a split backfield and for the time being, Morris still is the team leader in carries and rushing yards. The rookie runner is on his heels though so Fantasy owners need to be aware of the fluidity of this situation.

Morris has started all 48 games in his career. His yards per rush have declined in each season. Alfred has three straight 1,000-yard rushing seasons with 280-plus touches in each year. He has scored 21 TDs in his career. His value in the passing game has been minimal in his career (37 catches for 310 yards), but he did have a career high 17 catches last year for 155 yards. His lack of success in the run game was a team problem due poor QB-play from Griffin and the porous offensive line. His value in TDs is limited if Griffin starts. In 2014, Morris only had one game with 100-plus yards and seven games with 20 touches or more. Alfred is a steady RB2 with a 1,300-yard opportunity with 300 touches and a possible 10 TDs.

Washington Redskins RB Alfred Morris

WR Jamison Crowder, ---

UPDATE (11/20): The rookie was heavily incorporated in the offense in Week 3. He has done an excellent job filling a much needed role for the Redskins. Despite seeing just two targets after two weeks, the highly underrated rookie has caught 42 passes for 402 yards and one TD since. This kid is a must-add in dynasty leagues and should be on rosters in most leagues. We loved him entering the draft despite criticism and now he's showing why.

WR Pierre Garcon, --- - Quality Backup

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Week 14 DFS Update (12/13): Garcon hasn't scored a TD in his last six games and his last impact game came in Week 3 in 2014. He has five catches or less in his last eight games. On the year, he has three TDs with no games with more than 75 yards receiving. Garcon averages seven targets per game. CB Kyle Fuller has made a nice step forward in 2015 so I would avoid this matchup.

Week 13 DFS Update (12/5): Garcon has four catches or less in each of his last four games (12 catches for 158 yards on 20 targets). His last TD came in Week 6. He still doesn't have a game with more than 75 yards receiving, while averaging only seven targets per game. On the year he has three TDs. In 2014 Garcon had six catches for 100 yards on nine targets vs. the Cowboys in two games. His price point is fading as well as his opportunity.

It was just crazy to see how the Redskins used Garcon in 2014. His value looked in check in Week 1 when he caught 10 of his 12 targets for 77 yards, but Washington left him out of the game plan in Week 2 (one catch on four targets for 12 yards). He responded with his best game in Week 3 (11 catches for 138 yards and one TD on 16 targets). Over his next 10 games, Garcon caught 27 balls for 280 yards with two TDs on 45 targets. He only had one game of value (9/95 on 11 targets) in his last four starts. Pierre didn't score a TD in his last nine games. For the year, he had three games with double digit targets compared to 14 in 2013. Garcon is a very talented player that was misused last year. This year Washington plans to play him split wide on the right side as they intend on getting more him involved this year. Pierre should be a rock solid pass catching machine with 80-plus catches well within reach. I expect 1,000-plus yards with a handful of TDs. He is a complete gift in the early draft season with an ADP of 111 as the 47th WR off the board. Garcon has WR2 upside.