Week 14: Fantasy Football Sleepers
QB Zach Mettenberger, ---
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Since Mettenberger took over Tennessee's starting gig in Week 8, he's been one of the better passers in the league, at least according to one statistic. Among quarterbacks who have taken at least 50 percent of a team's snaps since Week 9, Mettenberger ranks second in yards per attempt, behind only Aaron Rodgers and in a virtual tie with Andrew Luck. And yards per attempt is a stat that has a high correlation with fantasy success. A big part of Mettenberger's high YPA mark has to do with how he's performed on play action as he leads the league in YPA on play-action plays by a significant margin. Mettenberger left last week's game in the second half with a sprained right (throwing) shoulder. However, he was able to go through limited practice Wednesday, and reports have indicated that he'll be able to play on Sunday. If he's good to go, he'll have a nice matchup against the Giants, who allow the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
RB Marion Grice, ---
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Andre Ellington left last week's game with a hip pointer, and his status for Week 14 is up in the air as of this writing. If Ellington is unable to play versus Kansas City, it would appear that Grice is in line to carry the majority of the backfield work for Arizona. Head coach Bruce Arians hinted to as much earlier this week, and Grice got eight touches to just one for Stepfan Taylor last week. However, Taylor scored on his one touch, and Michael Bush looms as a potential touchdown vulture if he ever joins the active roster.
The Chiefs present an ambiguous matchup for the Cardinals' ground attack. On one hand, the Chiefs allow the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs. But they're also tied for the most yards allowed per rushing attempt and have given up the second-most rushing yards to RBs. Despite allowing nearly 5 yards per tote, the Chiefs have somehow allowed only two rushing touchdowns. That seems very fluky since the other teams that allow 4.5 yards or more per carry are allowing an average of 11.3 touchdowns this season. The long story short is that any back getting the majority of his team's carries against a team that allows almost 5 yards per carry is worth considering.
RB Latavius Murray, ---
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Let's make sure we don't forget that Murray ran for 155 yards on just eight carries in Weeks 11 and 12 before sitting out last week with a concussion. Now that he's been officially cleared to play again, there's no reason to think he won't be Oakland's lead runner. Admittedly, the matchup with San Francisco is a rough one because the 49ers have a stout defense and because game flow isn't likely to be conducive to Oakland running the ball a lot. But Murray's apparent big-play ability makes him a sleeper, regardless of the matchup.
WR Anquan Boldin, ---
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Two weeks ago in a great matchup with Washington, Boldin went off for 137 yards and a score. Last week in a tough matchup against Seattle, Boldin caught just three passes for 18 yards. This week, the matchup swings back toward the favorable side of the pendulum for Boldin against Oakland. The Raiders haven't given up a ton of fantasy points to receivers but not because they have a good pass defense; they allow so much on the ground that teams don't throw much against them. Oh, and teams are rarely trailing against the Raiders, which also makes throwing not overly necessary.
Of course, those factors will likely be working against Boldin this week. But Oakland may be a rougher matchup for teams with multiple receivers who get lots of looks. Boldin has been the focus San Fran's passing game, and the shortage of passing attempts against Oakland may affect guys down the depth chart, such as Michael Crabtree, more than it will affect Boldin.
WR Allen Hurns, ---
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One of Jacksonville's receivers is going to have a big week against the Texans, who are essentially tied with Baltimore for most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Baltimore has technically allowed a tenth of a point more per game to wideouts in PPR formats, but after Baltimore and Houston, no team comes even close in its generosity to WRs. So yeah, the matchup couldn't really be any better for the Jags' receivers.
Picking the receiver who will have that big game is a bit difficult. Hurns, Marqise Lee and Cecil Shortsall got exactly eight targets last week in a win over the Giants. Lee caught six of his passes compared to four each from Hurns and Shorts, and Lee scored a touchdown. That would seem to make Lee the best play this week, but things obviously fluctuate frequently, and this game of ours would be a lot easier if we could always rely on what happened last week.
Hurns may actually be the best choice because of his upside. First of all, he was targeted further downfield than Lee and Shorts last week, and he's been targeted further downfield on average more than any other Jags receiver this year. He also has a pair of 100-yard, two-touchdown games to his credit. You obviously can't bank on that kind of production, but it is in play given the matchup.
