Dynasty: 2014 Top 24 Rookie Rankings (June)
I don't think he's a great prospect in a vacuum. He's just solid. Not incredible. Doesn't move as well as guys like Robinson and Lee. This ranking is about the fit and the situation. For middle-of-the-road WR2 types like Mike Williams, Stevie Johnson, and Eric Decker, situation is the biggest variable in their production. Stick them in a bad slot and they will be useless; stick them in a good spot and they will be rock solid every-week starters. Adams is no better than those guys in my estimation, but he went to the dream situation. He may be a better overall receiver than James Jones, and with Nelson/Cobb around he will have plenty of room to do his thing.
Compact, with good bulk for his height. Tested well at the combine and looked good in the drills. Given his lack of height, he's still somewhat small overall despite his thickness. Not as crafty as other short, squatty backs like Ray Rice, Gio Bernard, and Brian Westbrook. He's not a great juker; more of a north-south power runner with a little bit of quickness trapped in a slightly shorter than typical frame for that type of back. There's a little bit of a tweener vibe here, but he's talented enough and versatile enough that he should find a decent amount of success. He has tangibly more north-south explosiveness than Jeremy Hill or Carlos Hyde. He showed glimmers of standout ability as a receiver and return man in college, suggesting that he may have good potential as a receiving playmaker at the next level. He may not be a true franchise back, but the opportunity for immediate impact is there with just Zac Stacy to beat out. Mason is a fair gamble in the 10-14 range.
Excellent athlete who separates with ease. His ability on the field is greater than the sum of his measurables. Very dangerous route runner who can create space for himself routinely when matched up 1-on-1. Elusive with the ball in his hands. Not a burner, but can get vertical. On the downside, he's simply not very tall or thick. He may not hold up to the beating of the pro game. He drops too many passes. It is a real problem for him. I think he'll find a way to make an impact, but that he's best viewed as an explosive complementary piece rather than a potential top flight #1 target. There's an argument that Latimer and Moncrief have more upside for the NFL, so (depending on your style preferences) you might want to consider them as candidates here too.
He's got some issues as a route runner; he runs a bit duck-footed and tips his routes. Despite the height/weight deficit, he looks and plays stronger than Allen Robinson. However, he lacks the same movement skills and is more pedestrian in and out of his breaks. He's okay in a straight line, but he's not going to make people miss with the ball in his hands. He projects as a solid number two possession WR, with a little bit of vertical speed. He'll never be Demaryius Thomas, but he can be Eric Decker. The question is how long will Manning play and how valuable will the WR2 slot be here once he's gone? I'm cautiously optimistic about Latimer, but he's not a lock for success.
The fact that he fell so far in the draft is a testament to his numerous flaws as a receiver. He's not really that great. He has limited quickness and he drops passes, but he does a few things exceptionally well and this is an absolutely perfect situation to unlock his potential. He will give the Colts what they hoped they were getting in Darrius Heyward-Bey: a deep threat who can bomb downfield all game. If they can turn him into an even passable possession WR over time, he could be a 1000+ yard guy. The player, the draft slot, and the situation all echo another former Ole Miss product: Mike Wallace. That's the outcome you're hoping for here. He is a better FF proposition than NFL talent thanks to his fortunate landing spot with Andrew Luck.
He's not a sudden or explosive guy; however, he has tremendous feet for a player of his size and should be a nightmare as a box out target with underrated mobility (think a better version of Kyle Rudolph or Martellus Bennett). If you want top upside, he's probably not the pick. If you want a quality prospect with a high floor, he's a good candidate in this range. While he seems like a safe pick from a talent standpoint, there are still some concerns. He is known to be a bit of a headcase with possible character issues. Moreover, he was more of a compiler than an explosive playmaker in college. He should be a steady contributor, but he might not be very dynamic. If you want more upside, you can pass on him for a RB here.
His immediate upside is capped with Bernard in the picture and he may or may not have the talent to emerge as a starter elsewhere down the road. I like him best in deep mandatory 2RB leagues where his BJGE+ production figures to have some flex/depth value. In those formats I think you can take him 5-6 spots higher than this. His combine numbers are a major red flag and a lot of signs point toward him being a LenDale White type of performer in the NFL, but ultimately he's a second round RB with starter size, decent hands, and excellent college production in a top conference. At some point you have to take the plunge. From what I have seen in rookie drafts, he usually represents good value at his ADP.
McKinnon is a bit of a wild card in this draft class. He has some spectacular combine numbers and is physically reminiscent to former Giants 1st round pick David Wilson. He was a fairly high draft pick when you consider that he's a converted QB with minimal RB experience coming out of a small school. He shows flashes of brilliance in the limited clips I've been able to find. Although he doesn't play up to his timed 40 speed, he's still fast and explosive overall. He has decent weight for his height, although he may ultimately be more suited to a change of pace role than workhorse duties. With Peterson approaching the end of his prime, the situation in Minnesota might not be as bad as it looks on paper. Ultimately, McKinnon seems like a huge boom-or-bust pick, but the upside is high enough to justify spending a late second round rookie pick. He usually falls well past this point in most drafts, so you can afford to wait on him and take a cheap flyer.