NFL Picks: Week 3
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Three of the NFL season...
These fantasy musings and game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand now that he now officially will not be a judge on American Idol.
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Home Team in CAPS
Last week: Straight (8-8), Spread (8-7-1)
Overall: Straight (21-11); Spread (19-11-2)
NY GIANTS 21 Tennessee 20 (+3): Wanted to initially pick the Giants to cover, but I think this Titans team is pretty tough across the board and Chris Johnson needs to get back on track. Still, Eli to Nicks once again rules the day.
NEW ENGLAND 38 (-14) Buffalo 17: Bad enough the Bills felt compelled to go to Ryan Fitzpatrick already (seriously, why bother giving Trent Edwards the reps in preseason if you bail on him so soon?), but they also have to face a Patriots team coming of a beat down to the Jets. This will be a name your number game for Tom Brady and the offense. Randy Moss, Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski score through the air, BenJarvus Green-Ellis on the ground and rookie Devin McCourty takes a pick back to the house.
BALTIMORE 27 (-10.5) Cleveland 10: Similar to the game above, the better team is coming off a loss and now faces a team with a backup QB. Ray Rice finds the end zone for the first time and Joe Flacco's 16-21, 210 yards, one TD, zero INT day silences the NFL doubters.
Pittsburgh 20 (-3) TAMPA BAY 13: The MVP of the season so far is arguably the entire Steelers defense and their argument gets stronger after they lead the black and gold to another win even with Charlie Batch at QB and the offensive line battered. Hines Ward and Mike Wallace owners don't care; they just want Big Ben back already.
Cincinnati 23 (-3) CAROLINA 14: Carson Palmer has looked so blah for most of the first two games and at times he looks to be the second worst QB in this game despite Jimmy Clausen making his NFL debut. Still, the kid makes enough mistakes and Bengals defense picks off another three passes to set the offense up with short field after short field.
NEW ORLEANS 24 (-3) Atlanta 17: How can the Saints be undefeated with their offense looking as pedestrian as they have? Not quite sure, but they get it done again with a heavy dose of Pierre Thomas. On the other side, Matt Ryan once again completes less than half his throws in the Superdome and the Saints snatch two of his errant tosses.
KANSAS CITY 22 (+3) San Francisco 20: The Niners run defense once again looks rather stout, especially up the middle. That's why Jamaal Charles is the Chiefs back to own this week as he picks up 125+ yards overall and scores from 35+ yards out. Even at 0-3, Niners still favorite to win the pathetic NFC West.
MINNESOTA 31 Detroit 24 (+12.5): Brett Favre is my fantasy "sleeper" pick of the week, simply because 1) he won't go away, no matter how much I wish he would and 2) the Lions can't cover anyone. Still, Detroit's offense has shown that they can score and thus they get a late score to cover.
HOUSTON 27 (-2.5) Dallas 24: With the Texans coming off two big and emotional wins and the Cowboys desperate to get their first, this game screams "upset", but Houston surely wants to knock off their in-state foe. Both passing games will be in high gear, but Matt Schaub simply makes plays down the stretch that Tony Romo will not.
Washington 24 (-3.5) ST. LOUIS 16: Chris Russell from ESPN980 in Washington reported his sources said that Albert Haynesworth apparently looked beastly in practice at the end of the week. Ron Jaworski said Donovan McNabb played the best game of his NFL or college career last week. The Redskins blew a 27-10 last week. Put all of that together and factor in the Rams rookie QB and this game has a Washington win and cover written all over it.
JACKSONVILLE 27 (+3) Philadelphia 24: The Jaguars play better at home and the Eagles defense has been less than stellar this year. So even though Michael Vick has another strong fantasy day, but Garrard throws for three scores, one each to MJD, Mike Thomas and Mike Sims-Walker.
Indianapolis 34 (-6) DENVER 24: Still scratching my head why some folks were thinking the Colts were going to fall to 0-2 last week. Even if Champ Bailey can play for the Broncos, their defense will not be able to slow down Peyton Manning and the passing game. No Pierre Garcon means a lot of Austin Collie. On the other side, Kyle Orton throws for over 290 yards for the third straight game. Correll Buckhalter is worth adding if desperate following the news that Knowshon Moreno is out, but I would rather have (gulp) Laurence Maroney long term.
San Diego 28 (-4.5) SEATTLE 20: September has been the worst month for the Chargers under Norv Turner, but that trend is trumped when the opposition lacks a formidable offense. Philip Rivers has a field day against a secondary that continues to give up pick chunks of yards through the air and Mike Tolbert's second straight two-TD game makes the phrase "running back controversy" a trending topic in Southern California.
ARIZONA 17 Oakland 16 (+4.5): Derek Anderson vs. Brad Gradkowski, yeesh. Expect both teams to rely on the ground games, meaning Darren McFadden (as RB2 even if Michael Bush is active) and Tim Hightower (at least a flex and more if Beanie Wells is limited or out ) should post solid numbers. Speaking of McFadden, unless he has some kind of setback here, expect him to have no less than a 70-30 share of the carries going forward.
MIAMI 16 (-2.5) NY Jets 13: All the preseason AFC East talk focused on the publicity seeking Jets or the been there done that Patriots, but it will be the Dolphins standing alone with a 3-0 mark when this game is done. One week after looking like a stud, Mark Sanchez is closer to dud against the Dolphins underrated defense.
Green Bay 30 (-3) CHICAGO 23: Both teams are dealing with injuries along the offensive line, but the Packers defense will take greater advantage of the situation with the red-hot sacker Clay Matthews. Jay Cutler will have his moments, but that pass rush will force him into mistakes while Aaron Rodgers makes very few and throws for three scores.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road, so other than in scenarios where I have no other options or say the Colts are at the Rams, I am taking home favs.
Week 3 - New England...bad enough to lose a Survivor pick, but even worse when you do it taking a team you loathe to root for. Serves me right taking the Cowboys. This week we go with the Patriots as they have face the lowly Bills and also do not have what appears to be an easy home game the rest of the season. Baltimore is also a fine play if you have already used the Pats and the Vikings should win, but I do not trust them right now.
Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego.
Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants