Best Bets for Week 10 of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 10 of the NFL season...
These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand as he no longer has to waste energy this week trying to catch an errant throw from Jay Cutler...
Last week: 9-4 straight, 9-4 spread (sidebar - hit the EXACT score in the Pats 27-17 win over Fins)
Overall: 85-44 straight; 67-61-1 spread
Home team in CAPS
NY JETS 20 Jacksonville 14 (-7): Mike Sims-Walker has become virtually matchup proof, but the combination of swirling Meadowlands winds and Jets CB Darrelle Revis means owners with comparable stud options should look elsewhere this week...Doesn't it seem just like yesterday that the Rookie of the Year trophy engravers were making sure they knew how to spell Mark Sanchez. Now the daily buzz surrounding the former USC stud - at least outside NYC - has dropped off to "whatever happened to so-and-so levels". That could change after having a bye week to get a better rapport with stud receivers Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery before facing the Jags 25th ranked pass defense. Still, Sanchez makes for only as low-end bye week option, but the receivers are worthy WR2/3 plays.
Denver 23 (-3.5) WASHINGTON 10: Can't say that this is a must win for the 6-2 Broncos, but they need a strong outing to silence the doubters after getting drubbed the last two weeks. No better elixir than the inept Redskins, though the Broncos offense may still continue to sputter against the NFL's sixth-ranked defense. Expect a spread the wealth type attack from the Josh McDaniels game planned offense...With the injured Clinton Portis joining Chris Cooley on the sideline, the Redskins offense is virtually deprived of all fantasy relevance. The solid but not spectacular Ladell Betts may not even be able to take full advantage of this week's starting assignment with his own injury, making his Week 10 RB2/Flex status come into question.
PITTSBURGH 24 Cincinnati 19 (+7): Hmmm, seven points? Last week the Bengals were getting +3 at home despite a 5-2 mark. Now after thrashing the Ravens, the Carson Palmer's are still not getting much love, though I agree with those that think the Steelers are the top NFL team right now. Both defenses will make big plays and Big Ben gets the best of the QB battle, but gimme the points in this division clash.
TENNESSEE 24 (-7) Buffalo 13: Something is odd when a team that was winless just two games is favored by a TD over a 3-5 squad, but the Titans are hot! Get on board while you can...I know that the TO faithful will want to roll the dice and stick him back in their lineup against the Titans 32nd ranked pass defense. Sorry, not buying it. Tennessee's secondary is healthier than it has been and has looked much improved the last two weeks. The Bills are coming off a bye week, but unless that allowed doctors to insert an aggression chip into Trent Edwards mind, Owens and Lee Evans still will not see enough down field looks to warrant fantasy relevance...Chris Johnson, having been on my fantasy roster two straight years (thank you keeper league!), is easily my fav fantasy player of all-time, surpassing the two-year run I had Clinton Portis when he was a youngin with the Broncos or the 50-TD season from Brady. (The Week 15 snowstorm tainted my love of that season, sigh). With my birthday coming up, hoping someone hooks a brotha up with a CJ 28. It would be even better to have for this week when Johnson runs wild again.
*** 11/14 UPDATE - Another reason to avoid Owens; According to Bills coach Dick Jauron, Owens is "still struggling" with a hip injury that has caused him to miss the last two days of practice. Owens is still a good bet to play/start, but becomes a more risky play and a player that needs to be watched Sunday AM for owners still planning in using him.
CAROLINA 24 (+2) Atlanta 21: This is the game Steve Smith owners have been waiting for; seven receptions, 137 yards, two scores...According to the Matchup Analyzer, do not expect Roddy White to match those numbers against a Panthers secondary that is allowing only 15.5 ppg to wide receivers.
MINNESOTA 38 (16.5) Detroit 17: Everyone knows to start Adrian Peterson every week and other Vikes like Brett Favre, Ryan Longwell, Sidney Rice, Visanthe Shiancoe and the defense are almost there most weeks. Against the Lions, you can add Chester Taylor, Percy Harvin, Cris Carter, Ahmad Rashad, Chuck Foreman and Tommy Kramer to the list in what should be a blowout...Calvin Johnson is one of the players that could dramatically alter the remainder of the fantasy season. The debate all of his owners are having right now (which is similar to those of Jason Witten, Brian Westbrook and Anquan Boldin owners) is whether he will rebound to be that top tier WR you drafted or if the enormity of the Lions situation (plus his injury) will simply be too much to overcome. I fall in the former camp, but I would also move him for surer options likes Hines Ward or Donald Driver at this point.
New Orleans 38 (-13.5) ST. LOUIS 16: The random pick of which Saints receiver other than Marques Colston has a big week is...Jeremy Shockey. Simply put, the Rams have had issues covering tight ends all season. Also, Shockey found the end zone in Week One, then it took him four weeks to score again. Since then, it has been another three weeks of touchdown free play. I smell a trend...The biggest benefit of the Rams for fantasy owners is to have your defense play against them. Their remaining schedule is chock full of squads (Ariz, Sea, Chi, Tenn, Hous) that are potentially in your league's free agent pool as we speak...
MIAMI 27 (-10) Tampa Bay 13: Ronnie and Ricky should be wildcating all over a Bucs defense that is allowing 163 rush yards a game and no team is as run-oriented as the Dolphins are right now...I actually feel a little bad for Josh Freeman. His three-TD performance in his first start only served to raise unrealistic expectations, especially among those owners that rushed out to sign him this week. That thud-like sound you will hear in Southern Florida Sunday will be after the Dolphins defense brings the Freeman faithful back to reality, turning the rook over four times in the loss...
OAKLAND 16 (-1.5) Kansas City 13: I feel that just writing this sentence is too much coverage for this abomination of a game. Even if I was compelled to start Dwayne Bowe, Justin Fargas and Matt Cassel this week, I still would rather watch a "Wings" marathon than this game.
ARIZONA 30 (-8.5) Seattle 24: The Jekyll and Hyde Cards will remain as such on defense, but Kurt Warner and crew will take care of business on their side of the ball against a leaky Seahawks secondary. Larry Fitzgerald may not get 13 receptions like he did in their Week six meeting, but another 100 yards, one touchdown outing is likely to occur.
Philadelphia 27 (+1.5) SAN DIEGO 23: These two squads are almost mirror images of one another in that both tease at times with their championship level play only to follow it up with a no-show effort the following week. The Eagles are the one's coming off a downer of a game, even though they actually outplayed the Cowboys for most of that 20-16 loss. Brian Westbrook is listed as probable for the game, but the Donovan McNabb-to-Brent Celek connection will be the primary source of the Eagles offense. Antonio Gates will get his against the Eagles beat-up linebacking group, but the lack of a running game means Philip Rivers will see much of this game from the seat of his pants as the Eagles fly in with blitz after blitz.
GREEN BAY 31 (+3) Dallas 27: The must win moniker is overused in sports, but not this week in Cheese-head land. The NFC North crown is already slipping away and a loss this week, especially to another contending team, would put the Packers in a huge hole. The good news is Cowboys QB Tony Romo, who is on a good roll for sure. comes back to his home state. Romo is the kind of QB that tries a little too hard to be the man in such spots and the Packers defense takes advantage with three picks. Aaron Rodgers takes another beating, but still throws for at least two scores for the seventh straight game.
New England 24 (+3) INDIANAPOLIS 23: Key the game - can the Dwight Freeney-led pass rush get enough heat on Tom Brady so the Golden Boy does not have time to pick apart the Colts inexperienced secondary. Freeney and Robert Mathis add to their sack totals, but Brady and Wes Welker put on a clinic and you know it wouldn't be a prime time game without a long score from Randy Moss.
Baltimore 27 (-10.5) CLEVELAND 10: The team formally known as the Cleveland Browns travel back to play against the current Browns squad. The beat down they put on Brady Quinn and company will serve as a painful remainder to the Dawg Pound of what might have been. Ray Rice posts another 120+ total yards, Derrick Mason hauls in eight grabs for 93 yards and Ed Reed scores. Josh Cribbs will once again be the only Browns scoring player worth talking about after he takes a kick return back to the house.
(*** Thursday Night Pick - San Francisco 20 (-3) Chicago 16)
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)
Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)
Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore