Best Bets for Week 17 of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 17 of the NFL season...
As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to worry about his fantasy lineup. Seriously, folks that play into Week 17, how do you stand it? After winning with Joseph Addai or Philip Rivers or Randy Moss all year you are now subjected to deciding between Mike Tolbert and Sammy Morris (Tolbert) at RB. Good luck out there...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...
Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will continue with podcasts the two weeks as we wrap up the 2009 season plus rank our top choices for those venturing into playoff fantasy leagues. We will also talk about the NFL playoffs, offseason rumors and later in the off-season preview the NFL Draft.
Last week: 10-6 straight, 8-8 spread
Overall (thru Week 14): 161-83 straight; 123-118-3 spread
BUFFALO 23 (-8) Indianapolis 14: The Colts may not play their starters even as long as they did last week, but Donald Brown should rack up yards with extended reps against the Bills dead last run defense...
CAROLINA 24 (-7) New Orleans 13: Peter King is reporting that Drew Brees will be the Saints #3 QB on Sunday. That's enough for me to take the suddenly hot Panthers, even without Steve Smith.
Jacksonville 24 (+1.5) CLEVELAND 17: If Jerome Harrison could throw as well as he has been running of late, the Browns would have a chance since the Jags secondary is on the brutal side. Alas, Derek Anderson will be doing the throwing and that is rarely a good thing...
Philadelphia 30 (+3) DALLAS 27: Losing C Jamaal Jackson cannot be understated, especially going up a stud NT like Jay Ratliff, but the Eagles are scoring at will and will continue that trend en route to clinching the division title.
Chicago 28 (-3) DETROIT 17: Matt Forte makes his fantasy owners bang their collective heads into a wall repeatedly when he bangs out his second 100+ yard rush game of the year. It will be hide the knives time when he scores twice, once by land, once by air.
HOUSTON 27 (-8) New England 16: The Pats are another team expected to rest their stars, while the Texans have much to play for, though their playoff hopes will come up short.
MIAMI 23 (+3) Pittsburgh 21: Whatever has been missing for the Steelers much of the second half continues against the steady Dolphins, who pull the "upset" behind another 300 yard game from Chad Henne.
MINNESOTA 38 (-9) NY Giants 24: The Vikes offense had it going late on MNF and continue that run against Giants defense that can't stop anyone.
San Francisco 20 ST. LOUIS 13 (+8): The Rams are one step closer to winning the Ndamukong Suh draft sweepstakes, though don't be shocked if the allure of adding the Golden Domer QB Jimmy Clausen to pep up a moribund fan base becomes a much discussed option.
TAMPA BAY 24 (+1.5) Atlanta 21: Three straight wins down the stretch make the Bucs faithful feel better about their head coach and young QB. Josh Freeman throws two scores against the Falcons 28th ranked pass defense.
Green Bay 24 (+3.5) ARIZONA 17: Considering these teams may play each other in the wildcard round, expect a heaping dose of Vanilla schemes all the way around.
Kansas City 27 (+11) DENVER 24: Jamaal Charles, the hottest RB not named Chris Johnson, shreds a weakening Broncos run defense for 150 yards and two scores as the Chiefs knock the division rivals from the list of playoff candidates. Without Brandon Marshall, the Broncos offense simply can't get the job done.
Baltimore 27 (-10) OAKLAND 14: With a playoff spot on the line, the scheduling gods hook the Ravens up with Charlie Frye and the Raiders. Nuff said.
SAN DIEGO 26 (3.5) Washington 14: Billy Volek and Mike Tolbert do their best Philip Rivers and LT2 impression against a Redskins team that has packed it for the season and Norv Turner won't call off the dogs against his former employer. Where are Kenny Smith and Charles Barkley with their "gone fishing" routine when you need it.
Tennessee 31 (-4) SEATTLE 21: Chris Johnson left, Chris Johnson right, Chris Johnson mugging for the cameras after not one, not two, but...ok, two scores is plenty, as is the 165 total yards that goes along with it.
NY JETS 24 Cincinnati 17 (+10): If the Pats lose, the Bengals are the three seed with a win. Whether that is enough of a reason to expose Carson Palmer or another key starter to injury remains to be seen, but they do enough early to keep the game close.
Bonus College Picks...
Fiesta Bowl: TCU 34 (-7.5) Boise State 24
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech 31 (-4) Iowa 26
National Championship: Alabama 24 (-4) Texas 17
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 17: gulp...San Diego (Ok, if you have been following my picks all season then you very well may still be alive in your Survivor pool, as I am with one of my two entries. Denver is the most logical pick on the board, but I suspect most of the remaining players will take them and the Brandon Marshall issue has internal strife written all over it. The Jets are next in line, but I don't trust Mark Sanchez in a big game. So I'm taking the Bolts against a Redskins squad that has been rolled the last two weeks at home)
UPDATED: Not that it matters since the Chargers came through with the win, but for full disclosure I ended up taking the Panthers this week. Once I heard Mark Brunell was starting against the suddenly hot Panthers, I bounced...congrats to all those that "survived" all the way as well...
Week 16: Green Bay (the Cardinals are the safer play against the Rams, but being that it s a division game and for other strategic reasons unique to my game, I'm going with the Pack)
Week 15 - Houston (Another week, another pick against the Rams. All things being equal, I would take Denver, but need them for Week 17 in case Chargers have nothing to play for)
Week 14 - Tennessee (If Kerry Collins starts and I get spooked, will jump to the Pats. Otherwise, Titans roll)
Week 13 - Cincinnati (Their offense has been off, but Benson is back and I mean, they play the Lions)
Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)
Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)
Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)
Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)
Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore