McNabb-Redskins trade analysis
Wow, a true a stunner. Not that long time Philadelphia Eagles QB Donovan McNabb was traded; it had become quite apparent that Andy Reid and the rest of the Eagles organization had come to terms with dealing McNabb, the rumors becoming more fast and furious over the last week or so. The shock was the destination, division rival Washington. Quick look at how this deal effects both squads, on the field, in the draft and for fantasy owners.
Washington - Here is the bottom line for the Redskins; In his return to coaching, Mike Shanahan did not want to wait on developing a quarterback, period. With McNabb in the fold, Shanahan now has a Pro Bowel caliber signal caller and the Redskins have their best QB in years. Is that enough of a reason to make the deal however. To me, McNabb is the best worst QB I've ever seen. He may have never won a Super Bowl and certainly McNabb had his low moments in the City of Brotherly Love, but he reached five NFC Championship games and played in one Super Bowl. He has thrown for 216 touchdowns over 11 seasons, including a combined 45 over the last two seasons, and played at a high level for much of that time.Yet I have never seen a QB not named Jamarcus Russell throw as many one-hoppers over the years as McNabb. His accuracy issues were overlooked back when he still had a lot of gas left in his legs, but his career 59 percent completion percentage is far from elite, especially when he no longer tucks the ball and takes off for big chunks on the ground.
Numbers are not everything and generally speaking, McNabb is a winner. His addition gives the Redskins a much better chance to succeed. Plus, I will give the Redskins brass this much; the NFL these days is about implementing a long term strategy to best compete in short term windows. In other words, a franchise needs to develop a consistent plan of attack when it comes to putting together their roster to give themselves the best chance of succeeding in a sport where rosters are often overhauled every three-to-five years due to salary cap restrictions (this season not withstanding) and the potential for short careers because of the physical nature of the sport.
The thing is, even with the short window approach, if you make a deal for a 33-year old QB like McNabb, you either currently have zero options (hence the Raiders reported interest) or you think you are a QB away from becoming a legit contender. With only two viable starters along the offensive line returning, uncertainty at wide receiver, three aged running backs to work with and a change in defensive schemes (in their case from a 4-3 to a 3-4), it is hard to see how the Redskins fit that profile. This is not the Vikings adding Brett Favre to an overall established roster led by Adrian Peterson, one of the top offensive lines and a ferocious defense wall.
In terms of fantasy, McNabb will have a chance to throw plenty in Shanahan's system. While he does not have the same explosive weapons as he did in Philly, Santana Moss can make plays from time to time and young receivers like Devin Thomas and Fred Davis showed promise toward the end of last season. If the Redskins make 1-2 legit additions across the offensive line to help McNabb stay upright - and they likely will take a tackle with the No. 4 overall pick - and someone from the Clinton Portis/Larry Johnson/Wilie Parker trifecta starts playing like its 2006, then McNabb has a legit shot at being a lower-end QB1. The Redskins have gotten a close look at the top QB prospects in this year's draft and they obviously were not enamored enough by any of them to throw their lot in with them, which seems to be a reasonable approach. As for last year's starter Jason Campbell, I have always felt that his underwhelming run in Washington was due more to circumstances (lack of receivers, coaching changes, etc.) than a limited skill set. Still, it had become apparent that he was not Shanahan's long-term solution at the position and frankly it would be hard to assume that he will 100% be a playoff-caliber signal caller in the league. In time, perhaps, but the clock is already ticking for Shanahan.
They previously acquired Rex Grossman, who played in Kyle Shanahan's system last season, so he will work as the Redskins backup. Dealing Campbell should help the Redskins recoup a draft pick for this season, which they need since they no longer have picks in the second and third rounds, and there are enough desperate teams (Buffalo, Oakland, Carolina) that could have a legit interest in a still relatively young passer with a big arm. Shanahan and the Redskins organization have made their play, which clearly came from the Future is Now playbook. Adding a QB of McNabb's level of competence will be positive for the Redskins offense, just not sure it is enough to have them playing deep into January.
Philadelphia - McNabb had been the Eagles starter since midway through the 1999 season, but Reid stated at the Sunday press conference that the Kevin Kolb era is here. Of course, entering his fourth season - first as starter - will be pressure enough, let alone having to deal with the inevitable comparisons to McNabb and doing it all in front of a fan base that is not known for their patience. On the bright side, Kolb posted strong fantasy numbers in his brief run last season and will have plenty of weapons to work with going forward.
The offense was already dealing with a changing of the guard at running back now that Brian Westbrook is no longer on the roster, but they will not need to pass out name tags in the huddle as Kolb and LeSean McCoy both played prominent roles last season. RB Mike Bell was added this offseason and he should be useful in those oh-so-tricky short yardage plays. WR DeSean Jackson is already one of the premier playmakers in the league, Brent Celek the same among tight ends and WR Jeremy Maclin is coming off a productive rookie campaign. Though Kolb likely will be drafted as a QB2 or rotation fantasy option, he has a chanced to be a special fantasy player in short order if he can avoid the other McNabb legacy and not throw up all over himself.
As for the deal itself, the Eagles wanted to get max value for McNabb and they did, picking up a high second round pick this year and either a third or fourth in 2001. The Eagles now own No. 24, 37 and 55 in this year's draft, giving them ample opportunity to help solve their pressing needs at safety, corner, pass rusher and offensive line. In my mock draft that is set to go online Monday, I had the Eagles taking OG Mike Iuapti (Idaho) with their first pick and safety Chad Jones (LSU) in round two. Now with the fifth pick in the second round, the Eagles target Florida DE Carlos Dunlap or Alabama corner Kareem Jackson. Safeties Taylor Mays and Nate Allen are also now in the mix with the earlier pick.
Historically the franchise has cut bait with their vets before the bottom fell out of their production so they remain consistent, even with the face of their franchise. Of course, when you trade said star player within the division, the payback could be significant, especially if McNabb leads the Redskins to a semi-miraculous playoff run and keeps the Iggles on the outside look in. Can't wait for the inevitable Monday Night game in Philly this year. If nothing else, I know what everyone in town will be talking about for the next six months.