Week 14 - NFL and Survivor picks with fantasy angles
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 14 of the NFL season...
These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of ffftoolbox.com, just those of a solo fantasy writer who was reminded recently that fantasy football is just a game, but a game I love to play ...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also, download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Time, Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post. Times can vary so download us on ITunes and you won't miss out.
***PODCAST NOTE - Real life interfered with my schedule this past week and decision was made to pass on a podcast. We are back on track with plans to have a
Home Team in CAPS
BALTIMORE 27 (16.5) Indianapolis 10: Only concern for Ray Rice owners this week? Ravens score early and often against the Colts woeful defense by means outside of their stud running back and Rice sits much of the second half. It's also why Ricky Williams is a sneaky flex option or even RB2 play for those in dire need...Torrey Smith has been silent the past two weeks, but something tells me he scores on one of his patented long bombs...The Colts offense shown signs last week under Dan Orlovsky, but unlike the Patriots defense, the Ravens will not stop attacking.
CINCINNATI 17 Houston 16 (+3): Not much in this game for fantasy owners outside of the Arian Foster. Andre Johnson, not to mention Matt Schaub and Mario Williams, but the Texans stellar run game and substantive defense leads to a cover. Andy Dalton faces a tough challenge, one the fading rookie will not overcome...
GREEN BAY 34 (-11) Oakland 20: Carson Palmer reverts to his 2010 fantasy form; horrid first half puts his side in a hole, then he throws his fantasy owners a bone with volume tossing during the ill-fated attempt at a comeback.
NY JETS 24 (-10.5) Kansas City 10: This feels more like a Shonn Greene week than a Mark Sanchez-to Holmes/Plax week. This also feels like a week to sit every Chief where possible, even Dwayne Bowe.
DETROIT 28 Minnesota 20 (+10): Matthew Stafford's status as a must-start is no more, but using the Lions QB in a matchup against the Vikings banged up and beatable secondary is hard to pass on...
TENNESSEE 24 (+3.5) New Orleans 23: Last time the Saints played outdoors, the words divorce sham and Kim Kardashian had yet to become synonymous. Drew Bress threw six of his 11 picks in his last three outdoor starts. That trend provides the Titans an opening as Chris Johnson and Matt Hasselbeck have top10 matchups (though you only start the runner)...
MIAMI 27 (-3.5) Philadelphia 23: Dolphins, Reggie Bush, hot. Eagles, DeSean Jackson, not. Miami's secondary rarely allows a passing touchdown and it's not like DJax has been a scoring machine...
New England 28 (-8) WASHINGTON 17: Wes Welker has a Wes Welker type line, something in the 10-124-1 vicinity. Gronk finds the end zone again and the Law Firm is a sneaky RB2 play against a Redskins defense that has struggled at times against runs up the middle...Santana Moss cracks the century mark and Jabar Gaffney has deep-league WR3 appeal as the Redskins will be throwing often after halftime...
CAROLINA 27 (+3) Atlanta 24: This feels like an "upset" in the making. If the Panthers pull it off, the arm of Cam Newton and the hands of Steve Smith and Jonathan Stewart - plus the underwhelming Matt Ryan - will be reasons why.
JACKSONVILLE 20 (+3) Tampa Bay 17: MJD left, MJD right, MJD up the middle and into the end zone, twice. Only way Jags win...Mike Williams owners might want to keep going with their suddenly productive wide out, but Jags allowing fourth fewest points to fantasy receivers..
San Francisco 24 (-4) ARIZONA 19: Frank Gore finds the end zone and rushes for 90+ yards. Beanie Wells, not so much.
DENVER 20 (-3) CHICAGO 14: I agree with those that think the Bears defensive schemes stifle Tim Tebow. So what. The Bears limited offense is no match for the Broncos defense, a viable a fantasy option this week...
SAN DIEGO 28 (-7) Buffalo 20: If you want a sneaky pick as top fantasy runner of the week, Ryan Mathews is the call.
NY Giants 24 (+4) DALLAS 23: Sure, the Giants are the team entering the NFC East matchup with the lengthy losing streak, but it's not like the Cowboys are riding high. Since defeating the Niners in week 2, the Cowboys have failed to beat a team with a winning record. The Giants passing attack with Manning, Nicks, Cruz and Ballard tops anything the Cowboys can muster...Not sure you can sit any of the Cowboys top three receiver options, assuming all play.
SEATTLE 24 (-10) St. Louis 10: How bad are the Rams? I had little fear giving up 10 points with Tavaris Jackson at quarterback. Marshawn Lynch's ground game production and the Seahawks ability to slow up Steve Jackson tells the tale.
Last week: Straight (12-3), Spread (9-6); Overall: Straight (113-58), Spread (82-86-3)...
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Survivor picks - Not sure how much I trust them week to week, but cannot imagine the NY Jets losing to Kansas City...Wk. 1 - Houston...Wk. 2 - Detroit...Wk. 3 - Carolina...Wk. 4 - Tampa Bay...Wk. 5 -NY Giants...Wk. 6 - Pittsburgh...Wk. 7 - New Orleans...Wk. 8 = Baltimore...Wk. 10 - Philadelphia...Wk. 11 - Green Bay...Wk. 12 - Atlanta...Wk. 13 - New England