Week 7 - NFL and Survivor picks with fantasy RB angles...
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 7 of the NFL season...
These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, just those of a solo fantasy writer who is glad to hear Carson Palmer and the Raiders have come to their senses about starting (we think)...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also, download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Time, Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post. Times can vary so download us on ITunes and you won't miss out.
Home Team in CAPS
Chicago 23 (-2.5) Tampa Bay 20: Going with the Bears in the London Bowl simply because I sorta, kinda buy them more than the Bucs this season. Ringing endorsement, I know...Earnest Graham is line for another start and his outing last week was rather encouraging. Note the Bears are allowing the fifth fewest points to fantasy runners, but the game will remain tight so Graham can run the ball late.
CLEVELAND 23 (-3) Seattle 17: Peyton Hillis (hamstring) missed the entire week of practice, so Montario Hardesty likely starts. I'm vibing a Browns win and Hardesty is a factor even though the Seahawks run defense ranks 8th in the NFL. They also allow 22.2 points per game to running backs and Hardesty is ready to break out. If he does, Hillis owners are not going to be happy going forward.
CAROLINA 24 (-2.5) Washington 20: The "who the hell do we start at running back" game. On the Panthers side, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are low-end RB2/flex options. I'll give a slight edge to Williams since the Redskins have trouble stopping inside running plays...Ryan Torain's numbers were certainly a buzz kill last week, but the Redskins abandoned the run. That won't happen this week and the Panthers can't stop opposing ground games. However, the Redskins o-line is now in shambles and we won't know what the new makeup can do, only adding to the madness. Just monitor the Sunday morning news to verify it is indeed Torain getting the start over Tim Hightower.
San Diego 23 (+1) NY JETS 21: The Norv's top the Rex's behind Ryan Mathews. Mike Tolbert has now morphed into scoring a TD or bust for fantasy owners...Shonn Greene's final stats - 18 carries, 70 yards, TD. Don't be fooled by LT2 receiving the ceremonial start.
TENNESSEE 26 (-3) Houston 21: Chris Johnson has now had his training camp and preseason. Time to get moving. Also it is time to stop avoiding contact, which he has been doing this season. The start of a second half surge begins now.
MIAMI 21 (Pick 'em) Denver 20: Daniel Thomas gets back on the 100-yard rushing train this week. The rookie starts off as a RB2 play, but jumps up a tier as he finds the end zone, twice...I buy using Willis McGahee, but the Tim Tebow factor cannot be denied. The former goal line vulture is about to get a taste of karma...
DETROIT 28 (-3.5) Atlanta 21: Even with my general desire to roster the handcuff to my top running backs, I never bothered with any of Jahvid Best's backups (fine, I drafted Jerome Harrison in the last round, but cut him a week or so later). Now? Yeah, I'm concerned enough about Best's concussion situation to grab Mo Morris. Let's be clear: I think the 31-year-old is a pedestrian option at best (pun intended) and non-Best owners looking for a long-term fix really shouldn't bother. Keiland Williams' value jumps up in TD-based leagues.
OAKLAND 20 (-3.5) Kansas City 16: With Kyle Boller likely starting, the Raiders should run more than normal, giving Michael Bush a step in touches and value...As for Jackie Battle, my belief is that his value will never be higher than it is before kickoff this week. Hard for me to buy him as a legit starter, but the Raiders run D is allowing the seventh most points to running backs. Flex him if you want, but trade him if you can.
Pittsburgh 24 (-3.5) ARIZONA 20: This spread makes no sense and why I'm beyond tempted to take the points as Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt knows the Steelers. But I won't...My loyal readers/listeners know I'm not a big fan of either Rashard Mendenhall Beanie Wells, but one of them is line for significant production this week. Congrats Rashard...
DALLLAS 34 (-13) St. Louis 17: While I still think Tashard Choice can be a legit NFL/fantasy option, not sure it happens in Dallas. Hang on to him if you can until we see that DeMarco Murray is truly the lead back with Felix Jones out. Considering the Rams porous run defense, Murray's upside is in the middle of the RB2 pack.
Green Bay 38 (-9) MINNESOTA 20: The division rivalry thing has me thinking I should take the points. The Christian Ponder making his first start against the Packers stout defense - at least up front - has me thinking the Packers cover. The Vikings secondary playing without their top corners has me thinking Aaron Rodgers posts numbers so big his owners might not need much more from their other players to win...Until the Packers make a call on the running back situation - at least one that does not involve a pure rotation - neither James Starks or Ryan Grant is terribly interesting.
NEW ORLEANS 31 (-13) Indianapolis 17: Whether it holds going forward remains to be seen, but Mark Ingram does his best Jackie Battle impression against the Colts lowly run defense. Darren Sproles has RB2/Flex appeal and you could do worse than Pierre Thomas if truly in a bye week pinch...Sounds like Joseph Addai is moving closer to playing, but none of the Colts backs are terribly exciting this week. Donald Brown is a low-end option in PPR leagues. After starting the season with Delone Carter on most of my fantasy rosters, I've started divesting myself of him.
Baltimore 27 (8.5) Jacksonville 17: The Jags keep the game tight and will be covering late. That is until Blaine Gabbert does what rookie quarterbacks do; force a pass into coverage against a ball-hawking secondary. Predicting an Ed Reed interception return for a TD might be the easiest call of the week...I don't need to say you still start MJD even against the Ravens, right?
Last week: Straight (9-4), Spread (6-7); Overall: Straight (55-35), Spread (40-49-1)
----------------------------------------
Survivor picks - There a few nice options this week, but I'll go with New Orleans. My one rule is to avoid taking a road team and the Saints next three home games are against Tampa Bay, NY Giants and Detroit so this is the best chance to use them for a while...
Wk. 1 - Houston...Wk. 2 - Detroit...Wk. 3 Carolina...Wk. 4 Tampa Bay...Wk. 5 -NY Giants...Wk. 6 - Pittsburgh...