Initial thoughts on initial fantasy football mock

Early, early fantasy draft thoughts based on nearly six completed rounds of the first mock draft I have participated in this year. FFToolbox picked 11th in this PPR, 12-team league with standard scoring and snake draft. Pick player was drafted at shown in parenthesis...

• Outside of Adrian Peterson (2), there will be little consensus in first round order. AP is a near mortal lock to be the top pick in standard leagues and he will be top-3 in all imaginable formats.
• The casual fan that is focusing more on summer vacation than fantasy football state may be surprised that Maurice Jones-Drew (1) was the top pick in this format, but it is hard to argue against. MJD was highly ranked in this format a year ago and generated nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage despite the numerous issues with the Jags offense last season. Yes, the human bowling bowl is ranked high despite never having a 1,000 rush season, but he racks up the receiving stats (62-565-2 last season), has a nose for the end zone (38 TDs from scrimmage over the last three seasons) and Fred Taylor is gone. He will go lower in standard leagues, but not much.
• From there, look for the remaining picks to be about the eye of the beholder more than collective group think.
  • Michael Turner (5) and Matt Forte (6) appear to be the safest bets to go in the top-6 in all formats. Both are all-around performers with little to no competition for carries while playing with a top talent at QB.
  • The uber-quick Chris Johnson (7) is sure to be an exciting pick in the first round, but the large, large shadow cast by goal line vulture Lendale White keeps him from being consensus top-5. Big fan of CJ this season.
  • Brian Westbrook (3) and LaDainian Tomlinson (4) still have strong Q ratings and will have their loyalists, especially in PPR leagues, but both could easily slide to the later stages of the first round as well. Both went too early in my opinion, but if healthy, they remain in good positions to succeed. Of course that "if" remains a little large for me and I will be thrilled in my future drafts if another owner falls on these grenades. Same can be said for Clinton Portis (21) in standard leagues.
  • Steven Jackson (8) will be a top-5 pick in many leagues, but an equal number of owners - especially those like me that have been burned by his erratic production - will not drooling over the dreadlocked one. He could emerge as something close to a consensus top-5 pick with a strong training camp, but the Rams offense still has many questions.
  • Frank Gore, my pick at #11, is looking like a safe bet to go in the first round. Positive vibes are coming out the Bay Area, in part because of Mike Singletary's leadership, not to mention a renewed focus on the ground game and a more efficient offense in place.
  • DeAngelo Williams (10) is the hardest player to grade. Williams had an unreal 2008 season and based on those numbers should be a very early pick. However, Jonathan Stewart was viewed as the better fantasy option at this point last year and he is not going away. Plus, the Panthers face a very rough and tumble NFL schedule this season. I'd rather get Stewart (65) in the later rounds than take Williams in the first.
  • In this era of two-back systems, receivers, especially in PPR leagues, will be drafted earlier and more often than in years past. I'd rather take my chances on Larry Fitzgerald (9), Randy Moss (14, my pick), Andre Johnson (12) and a handful of other receivers over Williams, Portis, Barber (16) and Jacobs (20). This could be the year to go WR-WR if you pick late in round one.
  • Marshawn Lynch (36) is going to be a nice value, even with a three-game suspension looming, if he drops this far in actual drafts.
  • The salad days of Larry Johnson (54) are clearly over and rightfully so.
  • Knowshon Moreno (46) will be the top rookie selected unless Chris "Beanie" Wells (59, my pick) establishes himself in training camp as the clear starter.
  • Though drafted appropriately in my opinion, Joseph Addai (47) has a chance to be a major steal if he can keep rookie Donald Brown at bay and actually score on those short-yardage opportunities the Colts offense is sure to provide.
  • There are better ways to spend a beautiful weekend than say debating whether to take Dallas Clark (62, my pick) over the remaining RBs, yet everyone that knew I was participating in the mock passionately wanted to add their two cents. The NFL remains king, no matter the season.