Best Bets for Week 14 of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 14 of the NFL season...
As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup decisions, trades, free agents or thoughts about Derek Jeter being named SI's Sportsman of the Year, to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action.
As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he finished his stimulating football recruiting trip to the University of Tennessee ...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...
Last week: 13-5 straight*, 9-9 spread*
Overall (thru Week 13): 133-63 straight; 103-92-1 spread
* includes going 2-0 in college games
This week: 0-1 straight, 1-0 spread
INDIANAPOLIS 27 Denver 23 (+7): Big game for the Broncos. They get rolled, all the haters will toss out their best version of "I told you so"; they lose gamely or (gasp!) win, they will become the hot AFC sleeper pick. Very, very close call for Indy.
MINNESOTA 24 Cincinnati 19 (+6.5): Perhaps I am just wishing it so because I am playing in my opening round playoff game, but I think Adrian Peterson has a strong day against a formidable Bengals defense. I mean, he almost has too. Yes, going with AP standing for Awesome Production...The Bengals will get a defensive/special teams touchdown, which they will since their passing game is not clicking and Cedric Benson will struggle against the Vikings front four.
NY Jets 21 (-3) TAMPA BAY 17: Trying to decide if the spread is this close because a) Vegas is discounting the Jets because Kellen Clemens gets the start or b) Vegas is trying to tell us something. I suspect it's the latter, but I'm sticking with the Kelly Green boys. I recall liking Clemens in previous starts, Thomas Jones should go past the century mark again and the Bucs defense is just that bad...I'd start Jerricho Cotchery over Antonio Bryant, but both over Braylon Edwards. In case you cared...
Buffalo 24 (Pick 'em) KANSAS CITY 23: Not that I have the opportunity, nor would want it even in a so-so world, but I think starting Fred Jackson AND Marshawn Lynch wouldn't be so bad this week....of course, as bad as the Chiefs run defense is, the Bills sieve-like unit is worse. The worst in fact. That all bodes well for Jamaal Charles, who will be a top-10 RB this week.
Green Bay 23 CHICAGO 21 (+3): Another funky spread, but division rivalries will do that. Aaron Rodgers and friends have been rolling and I see no reason why they can't do the same this week. On the other hand, the Bears could only score 17 against the Rams. And yet, it will end up a field goal game. Just cause...
New Orleans 31 (-10) ATLANTA 17: The story everyone tells about why the Falcons have fallen and can't get up centers on injuries on offense. Fine, but what about the 28th ranked defense? Sorry, Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas will do whatever they want in this one...
BALTIMORE 27 (-13.5) Detroit 10: Best wishes go out to all owners playing against the Ravens defense, myself included. At least Daunte Culpepper is a little more careful with the ball than Matthew Stafford, right? Oh who am I kidding...
JACKSONVILLE 21 Miami 20 (+3): Was set to go with the Jags by a touchdown before Mike Sims-Walker was downgraded to doubtful. His absence should make it easier for the Dolphins to slow down the Jags passing game and focus on stopping MJD. I might not feel that way if Torry Holt was still playing, but...oh, he is? Who knew...Combine the Jaguars secondary issues with the fact that the Dolphins are throwing the ball more since Ronnie Brown was injured and Davone Bess makes for a very interesting fantasy sleeper this week. PPR leagues for sure...
NEW ENGLAND 34 (-13) Carolina 17: With the back-to-back losses plus this week's late-for-meeting gate, the Pats are either going to explode or implode. For now I remain a believer as Tom Brady throws for two scores, Laurence Maroney and Sammy Morris run one in.
Seattle 27 (+6.5) HOUSTON 24: It almost pains me to make this pick because I have been going against the Seahawks most weeks while trumpeting the Texans. The mojo is just that bad for the Schaub's right now, though the QB will be a solid fantasy play as long as his shoulder holds up...
TENNESSEE 27 (-13) St. Louis 10: This margin would be higher if Vince Young's injury during practice this week had not occurred. I assume he plays, but the Titans could go even more run crazy than normal. Regardless, they roll and continue their playoff push...Ok, let's call it, Chris Johnson's stats: 23 carries for 157 yards, 5 receptions for 62 yards, two touchdowns.
OAKLAND 20 (+1) Washington 17: The Redskins three wins have come against the Rams, Bucs and Broncos (though they were losing until Chris Simms entered for the injured Kyle Orton). The Raiders three wins have come against the Chiefs, Eagles and Steelers. Plus, no Albert Haynesworth for the Redskins and they are doing the cross-country trip after the end-game debacle last week. Yeah, Raiders.
DALLAS 28 (-3) San Diego 23: Feels like the Chargers should be favored, so I'll go with the Cowboys. Plus, they need the game more...I wonder if Darren Sproles and Felix Jones will make a pre-game wager about which of them will break a 40+ yard TD and which one will end end up with less than 30 yards. Its what they do.
Philadelphia 20 (+1) NY GIANTS 17: Bottom line: I trust the Eagles a bit more. The only thing that will slow up DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant is the wind, not the Giants secondary...
Arizona 28 (-3) SAN FRANCISCO 24: Still not sure who I like more for the playoffs, Saints or Vikings, but the Cards are the most intriguing team in the NFC. As long as Warner can keep his head clear, their passing game is basically unstoppable, while their defense is big-game potent. A return trip to the NFC Championship game is far from a stretch...Still, the Niners will come out guns blazing. Alex Smith holds up in the MNF spotlight and posts top-10 numbers, but makes just enough mistakes to remind you he is a work in progress.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 14 - Tennessee (If Kerry Collins starts and I get spooked, will jump to the Pats. Otherwise, Titans roll)
Week 13 - Cincinnati (Their offense has been off, but Benson is back and I mean, they play the Lions)
Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)
Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)
Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)
Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)
Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore