Lions should pass on Stafford, tackle other needs with top pick

Before discussing Matt Cassel, a stellar week in the NBA and Sports Illustrated Swimsuit cover model Bar Refaeli…

Like many of my fellow mock drafters (or is it mock draftees? draftites?), I have the Detroit Lions selecting quarterback Matthew Stafford with the overall number one pick.

If the lot of us is correct, the Lions will have made a mistake.

In the role of prognosticator, my job is to predict what each team will do when its turn during the April 25 draft comes up, putting its needs, the draft board, rumors, team history and other factors over my own personal opinion.

The latter is why God (or Bill Simmons; I am never sure whom to give credit to) created blogs.

(Um, Ben, how does that make sense? Sounds like political double talk to me, affording you the opportunity to be correct regardless how the pick turns out. Hmmm).

Ok, hear me out. Yes, the Lions are in dire need of a quarterback. In fact, no team has a worse collection of signal callers right now and I’m not sure how much my opinion would change even if Jon Kitna were to return.

Also, I am not busting on the former Georgia Bulldog gunslinger or former USC Trojan star Mark Sanchez, the other QB projected by some to be the top pick. They both have the talent to succeed and according to those who have pored over hours and hours of game film or charted every single pass they throw in college, they are worthy of going high (though I would have preferred seeing more consistent production from both on the college level). No, I am ripping the herd mentality that says taking quarterbacks early is the right move.

As for the Lions, they need, well, almost everything. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith on offense and Ernie Sims on defense, they have few building blocks with which to build upon. Other than Megatron, the Lions have no viable options in the passing game and need major help on the offensive line. All three levels of their defense need an infusion of talent, something new head coach and former Titans defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is sure to address.

In addition to acquiring talent, the Lions need to change the culture of losing that has plagued this organization even before 0-16. Certainly a quarterback can go a long way towards that goal, but the learning curve for that position is steeper than most (consider Matt Ryan the exception to the rule). In addition, they frequently become the poster child for a franchise gone wrong, receiving lumps of coal from the press and fans on a daily basis, which surely will not help the confidence of even the cockiest of young men.

So yes, the Lions can draft Stafford with the top pick—and pay him the exorbitant salary that goes with it—and because of that mega contract and talent void, they will likely feel compelled to get him on the field before he is ready and more importantly, before the pieces around him are ready to hold up their end. Does it make sense to line him up behind an offensive line that has more holes than nearly every M. Night Shyamalan movie?

(If they ever make a movie about David Carr, the player I fear Stafford’s career could mimic if selected by the Lions, Shyamalan would be the perfect director. Who better to make a flick about overhyped potential?)

Oh, and did I mention that the NFL draft is also far from an exact science? Tim Couch, David Carr and Alex Smith were number one overall picks that flamed out faster than Michael Richards’ (a.k.a. Kramer) post-Seinfeld career while Tom Brady was a late round pick that flourished and Kurt Warner was a former grocery store worker learning his trade in the Arena League before starting in three Super Bowls.

Nearly every player leading up to the draft will have oodles and oodles of praise heaped upon them, but obviously many will fail to make an impact. I am not saying Stafford and Sanchez will be busts, but I also do not see a Ryan, let alone a Peyton Manning among them.

Put all those factors together and to me, the draft strategy for quarterbacks is this: buy in bulk. I would take a quarterback in the later rounds no less than every other year, even if I already had a star at that position. It would provide depth at the most important position. It affords young players the chance to learn a complex offense over time. It may provide riches in return via a trade (see Cassel, Matt). It removes at least some of the organizational pressure by not putting all the eggs into just one quarterback basket.

If I ran the Lions, and ignoring all trade talks for now, I would use a similar plan to what the Dolphins did last season. With the top overall pick, take one of the premier left tackles, Andre Smith, Eugene Monroe or Jason Smith. I will let those that study hours and hours of tape make the specific call, though I have the Crimson Tide monster above the other two, but by a Mini-Me sized margin. It shores up the offensive line, which in turn helps the ground game, which in turn helps any quarterback the Lions toss out there.

The Lions also have the 20^th and 33^rd picks in the draft. As part of my strategy—which again, for the Lions has as much to do with turning around the losing culture as anything —I would grab a defensive leader like Ohio State ILB James Laurinaitis. Next, select a run stuffer like DT Sen'Derrick Marks from Auburn or a pass rusher like Clint Sintim from Virginia with the second round pick. If compelled to use the second rounder on a quarterback, the likes of Kansas State’s Josh Freeman come cheaper but still with major upside. Regardless, there will be sleepers like Nate Davis, Rhett Bomar or Graham Harrell in the later rounds. Maybe even take two.

As for the short term, sign a veteran free agent like Byron Leftwich or maybe even Kerry Collins if he cannot come to terms with the Titans (even the likes of Rex Grossman would be an upgrade). Start the process of gaining competence across the board and stockpiling young arms. Despite the turnarounds by the Falcons and Dolphins last year, do not count on the same in the Motor City. There should not be a rush to draft a quarterback just because you can, but a plan to build from the bottom up to support the eventual valuable asset.

In other news…

• Do not tell Matt Cassel there is an economic downturn. After making $520,000 last season, Cassel is set to earn $14.65 million in 2009 after the Patriots put the franchise tag on him. Whether he stays in Foxboro will likely depend on Tom Brady’s health even more than what offers are forthcoming, but I am guessing Belichick and friends will send Cassel packing for the right price. Part of my rationale is that the Pats planned for the rainy day and spent a third-round pick last year on Kevin O’Connell last season. Plus, they can always add a veteran backup type. Kansas City and Tampa Bay seem to be most logical landing stops for now.

• My NBA focus has picked up with the end of football and what a week it was (I assume David Stern and pals purposely picked this week for Kobe to play in New York, against the defending champion Celtics AND mano a mano with LeBron. Brilliant). Right now, I am calling Lakers over the Cavs in the finals with the Celtics and Spurs oh so close. More on Kobe and LeBron later this week, regarding the “who is the next Jordan” talk.

• It is minor in nature, but I kind of like the Lakers move in acquiring the underachieving Adam Morrison for the wildly overrated Vladimir Radmonivic. Besides gaining cap space, the Lakers get a player who showed he could score in college into a system where he should get plenty of open looks. Morrison may never live up to his collegiate hype, but by next year, he could be a viable rotation option.

• Here is a "Rock of Love Bus" recap. For those that watched the recent episode, I agree with Bret Michaels; there is very little chemistry between him and the current “ladies” on Rock of Love. Also, not sure if the addition of the new girls was strategically sound or a jump the shark moment, Regardless, still very, very entertaining.

• Last but not least, the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue is out with the stunning Refaeli on the cover. It probably was not the wisest move on my part to stop my subscription last month. For those unfamiliar with the Israeli beauty, here is a sampling of her previous work.