Week 13 - NFL and Survivor picks
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 13 of the NFL season...
These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of ffftoolbox.com, just those of a solo fantasy writer who kind of wouldn't mind if Darren McFadden sits out the rest of the fantasy season. Love him and all, but I'll taker one stud Raider RB over two guys splitting carries in weeks 15-16...As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com or send tweets to @benstandig. Also, download the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly with guests from the Rotoworld, CBS Sports, NY Time, Sports Illustrated and the National Football Post. Times can vary so download us on ITunes and you won't miss out.
***PODCAST ALERT - Real life gets in the way of the fantasy world this week, taking me away from the podcast mic at least until late in the week. So when it comes to your lineup decisions and such, consult FFToolbox.com for all your analysis needs..
Home Team in CAPS
Tennessee 24 (+2.5) BUFFALO 21: Producing yards against woeful run defenses has not been an issue for Chris Johnson of late. The Bills sport a woeful run defense. You get the point.
CHICAGO 22 (-7) Kansas City 13: Caleb Hanie versus Tyler Palko. Yeah, let's just say Matt Forte dominates and move on.
MIAMI 24 (-3.5) Oakland 20: Dolphins are playing well. So are the Raiders. I'll take the home team for the win and Matt Moore over Carson Palmer, who will be without some of his speedy receiver weapons (Ford, Moore).
PITTSBURGH 23 (-7) Cincinnati 14: Call me a sucker, but I still buy into the Steelers defense even if evidence suggests the Steel Curtain is not all that these days. Neither QB has a good matchup on paper, but Ben Roethlisberger produces QB1 numbers all the same.
Baltimore 17 CLEVELAND 16 (+7): Ravens have played enough lackluster games away from home for me to buy into the Browns underrated defense keeping the division matchup close. With that game close, maybe that is enough to justify Peyton Hillis as a low-end RB2. Maybe.
NY Jets 20 (-1.5) WASHINGTON 17: Not loving Rex Grossman against a the Jets ball-hawking secondary, but another potent outing from Roy Helu is in the mix. Not sure there is one wide receiver in the entire game I am anxious to start, though DeAngelo Hal has had issues with tall receivers. Plaxico Burress is tall. Just sayin...
Atlanta 20 (-1.5) HOUSTON 17: Texans are better than the Falcons. However, T.J. Yates, I need to see more before I buy into him. Also, Falcons run defense statistically among the NFL's best. Should slow down Arian Foster and Ben Tate (low-end flex this week) just enough to eek out a win despite their haphazard playing ways.
Carolina 24 TAMPA BAY 20 (No line): Josh Freeman's injury is messing with the line. LeGarrette Blount, Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams will be messing with would-be tacklers down the field. All three backs have RB2 days at least with Blount moving into top-10 category against the worst fantasy run defense.
NEW ORLEANS 28 Detroit 21 (+9.5): Nope, not trusting Matthew Stafford this week - not a major stretch, but I'm sitting him for Eli Manning in all my leagues. Still, Saints play erratic enough to keep Lions close.
Denver 24 (-1) MINNESOTA 22: I'm riding the Tim Tebow is the greatest leader in the history of the world train, plus factoring in the winning QB has the easiest projected matchup for a fantasy QB.
SAN FRANCISCO 27 St. Louis 14 (+14): Oddly, Rams tops against fantasy tight ends this season. Vernon Davis is no run of the mill option, but let's not pretend his reception and yardage totals have been up to snuff
Dallas 28 (-4.5) ARIZONA 20: Something tells me Beanie Wells rushing totals come crashing back down to earth while DeMarco Murray's rise well above the century mark. And yes, I would start Laurent Robinson over Dez Bryant, if that wasn't obvious already.
Green Bay 30 NY GIANTS 24 (+6.5): Eli and company keep it close, Nicks, Cruz and Ballard score, but Aaron Rodgers as always has last laugh. He throws three scores, one each to Nelson, Driver and Finley.
NEW ENGLAND 31 Indianapolis 14 (+20): Sure, Tom Brady does what he wants when he wants and the Law Firm is poised for a strong game, but the Colts keep it closer than man think. Dan Orlovsky is not good, but he is better than Curtis Painter. So if you're compelled to break Reggie Wayne out of moth balls, this is a reasonable week as a WR3.
San Diego 24 (-3) JACKSONVILLE 17: Only Blaine Gabbert could prevent me from taking the new coach getting Jags over the reeling Chargers. Philip Rivers has fifth toughest statistical matchup of the week, for what's worth.
Last week: Straight (9-3), Spread (6-5-1); Overall: Straight (101-55), Spread (73-80-3)...a technical error (me not being smart) wiped out last week's post Turkey Day picks. Fun.
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Survivor picks - Could take Chicago, even with Caleb Hanie, but I'll go with New England in a no doubter...Wk. 1 - Houston...Wk. 2 - Detroit...Wk. 3 - Carolina...Wk. 4 - Tampa Bay...Wk. 5 -NY Giants...Wk. 6 - Pittsburgh...Wk. 7 - New Orleans...Wk. 8 = Baltimore...Wk. 10 - Philadelphia...Wk. 11 - Green Bay...Wk. 12 - Atlanta...