Mailbag Time
Living in the Washington, D.C. area, there is nothing funnier than being out for a drink with a group of serious people who are talking about the political news of the day, the economy, etc and then having them do a total 180 when they find out I write about fantasy football. Suddenly, they do not care so much about bailouts and oil prices but whether they should spend major auction dollars on Tom Brady (yes) or if Roy Williams will put up Terrell Owens-like numbers in Dallas (no).
As the song goes, it's 5:00 somewhere so let's keep Happy Hour going with the first mailbag of the season. If you want to join the fun, either on the blog or via our weekly podcast, email your questions to advice@fftoolbox.com...
Name: Adam B.
Location: Parkland, FL
12 team league
QB's getting 4 points per TD and WR, TE, and RB get 6. One keeper player per team not drafted in top 5 rounds from previous season.
Question: If picking 8th in round #1 and having Chris Johnson as your keeper would you still go RB in round #1 or would you look at guys like Larry Fitzgerald, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Andre Johnson?
Ben Standig: In non-PPR leagues, the only running backs I would definitively take over top receivers are Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Michael Turner, Johnson, and Steven Jackson with Steve Slaton and Frank Gore right in the mix as well. Now, considering you have Johnson in the fold already and I like the overall depth at running back better than receiver, I would tab Andre Johnson or one of the other big four receivers (Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson) at number eight...
Name: Jim
Location: Washington, DC
League Size: 12
League Details: 2RB, 2WR, TE
Question: The perception is that Eli Manning is a viable fantasy QB but his numbers last year were almost identical to Jason Campbell who is not perceived as a viable fantasy starter. Given the WR and TE corps of both teams – on draft day your next selection was to fill you QB slot and these 2 were the best available, who would you select?
BS: Considering Eli threw for 21 touchdowns compared to 13 for Campbell, it does seem hard to believe that they were respectively 13th and 14th in terms of total QB points last year, but the Redskins passer made up the difference with an additional 248 yards on the ground. The loss of Plaxico Burress will make it more challenging for Manning to reach the 20+ touchdown plateau for the 5th straight year, but his overall better supporting cast takes some pressure off him on the field even as the New York media applies a heaping does off it. If Hakeem Nicks or Domenik Hixon emerges as a consistent playmaker, Manning could sneak into QB1 territory, but consider him around the top tier of QB2 options and potential rotation play come draft day.
On the other hand, it is hard to consider Campbell as anything more than a pure backup, especially playing behind a solid but aging offensive line that is one injury away from imploding. He is also waiting for the Redskins young receivers to earn playing time (Malcolm Kelly is the best bet to contribute this year) and considering that management tried to bring in his replacement this off-season, Campbell could be in danger of losing his gig if the Redskins are struggling around the halfway point of the season. The former Auburn star could get the boost that comes from playing for a new contract, but too much has to go right for him to be fantasy viable...
Name: JD
Location Elmira N.Y.
League size 12
Total points and we play three IDP not teams. You have to draft you're starting 11 in the first segment ( 1 QB; 2 Rb; 3wr; 1te; 1kicker and 3idp). During the second section you can pick anybody.
Question: I have third pick in first round ( I intend to take best rb with the first pick). If both are available would you pick either Jones Drew or Forte?
BS: Like most I would put Adrian Peterson at the top of any standard scoring draft list, but MJD and Forte are my favorite players among that elite tier. The stats that the human bowling ball has put up – 38 touchdowns and an average of 1,300 yards from scrimmage over the past three seasons – while sharing the backfield with Fred Taylor are truly impressive and now he has vast majority of touches to himself. Forte also is the king of the Bears backfield castle and his rookie season was stellar, but there is potential for more emphasis on the passing game now that Jay Cutler is in town. I would give the slight nod to Jones-Drew and just hope the extra workload doesn't decrease his productivity in the latter stages of the season...
Name: Anil N.
Location: Alexandria, VA
Question: I'm in a 10 team league and have the 10th pick. The league heavily favors the passing game. The top 3 QB's went in the first round. I will be looking to pick up a QB in the 4th round at the earliest, but might wait. Who should I target there, guessing that my options will be between the following- McNabb, Cutler, Schaub, Palmer, Ryan?
BS: The good thing about the quarterback position is that there is no need to panic as there are plenty of options to ponder. However, in a league that gives added weight to the passing game and assuming Tony Romo, Kurt Warner and Philip Rivers are off the board, Matt Schaub and Carson Palmer offer the most upside of the players you mentioned.
The swap Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to Devin Hester and Earl Bennett knocks Cutler down the QB list for starters while Ryan still plays in a run-oriented attack. The Eagles offense could score a ton of points this year, but McNabb, who tossed 23 touchdown passes last year, has not thrown for 20+ plus scores in back-to-back years since the 2000-01 seasons.
On the other hand, Schaub is playing in potentially the breakout attack of the season and his per game average will likely be among the best in fantasy this year. The injury factor and lack of name recognition compared with the others mentioned is bumping his ADP down, but be sure to get a quality QB2 if you go with Schaub as your starter. Palmer's history shows that he can be a prolific fantasy QB option and despite a minor ankle tweak in camp, all signs point to another strong year for the Bengals passing game...
Name: Jed
Location: Springfield, MA
League Size: 14
League Details: PPR, 2 QB, 3 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2 K, 2 D
Question: In a very deep league, what do you think about the idea of focusing on QB and D (where position scarcity is a big issue) and waiting on RB and WR? I think it'll work, but I'm nervous that I'll end up starting guys like Fargas and Camarillo.
BS: This is not a bad year to wait on running backs if needed because there is significant depth this campaign, largely due to all the RBBC situations. Starters like Cedric Benson and Willie Parker are falling just outside the top-30 running backs selected and significant backups like Ahmad Bradshaw, Jerious Norwood and Chester Taylor are even later. However, the receiver crop in my eyes takes a hit in value once you start getting into the WR3 category and after players like Derrick Mason and Torry Holt. I would not shy away from taking receivers, especially in leagues where you start three or more, in the early half of the draft.
As I mentioned earlier, there are 10-14 worthy QB1 options out there so you do need to grab one early on, though I do think the quality backups dry up quickly after players like David Garrard and Kyle Orton. The good thing is there are almost always starters available on the waiver wire most weeks so you can always get someone. The same holds true for defenses, which is why unless your league gives major bonus points for performance, there should be no significant focus on that position until the latter stages of a draft...
Name: Jason
Location: Kansas City, MO
League Size: 14
League Details: point per reception, 3 wr's, 2 RB's and a flex
Question: What is Peyton Hillis's fantasy value at starting FB with Buckhalter, Jordan, and Moreno in front of him?
BS: The reason I added this question, considering Hillis remains little more than an early season waiver wire candidate, is because it is crucial to ignore the perceived draft chart pecking order and actually look at what is happening on the ground, especially once the season has begun. In the case of Hillis, the Broncos are not likely going to use a traditional fullback, so he will need to fight for touches with all those mouths to feed, but he has built upon his strong 2008 performance with reportedly top notch training camp. Buckhalter remains the best handcuff option for Moreno owners, but keep track of how the Broncos divvy up their playing time early on. The same can be said for other crowded backfields, including the Patriots, Ravens, Seahawks and Bucs...