Best Bets for Week 13 of the NFL season
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 13 of the NFL season...
As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup decisions, trades, free agents or thoughts about Derek Jeter being named SI's Sportsman of the Year, to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action.
These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he finished protecting his car by hiding all his golf clubs...
Last week: 12-4 straight, 9-7 spread
Overall (thru Week 12): 120-58 straight; 94-83-1 spread
This Week: 0-1 straight, 0-1 spread
Denver 23 KANSAS CITY 20 (+4.5): The Chiefs have been better at home and Jamaal Charles should be able to run against the Broncos run defense, but Knowshon Moreno will help grind out the win against KC's 27th ranked run defense...
PITTSBURGH 31 (-14.5) Oakland 10: Big Ben is back, but expect Rashard Mendenhall to carry the load against a Raiders defense that has not stopped anyone on the ground...
JACKSONVILLE 27 (Pick 'em) Houston 23: I might understand this line if the Texans had not suffered back-to-back gut wrenching losses. The Jaguars have issues stopping the pass so Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter are in line for strong outings, but the MJD-led offense should have their way against a Texans defense that appeared to give up late last week against the Colts...Late word out of Houston has Steve Slaton sitting out this week. Chris Brown has been involved, but to me he is better served in small doses, making Ryan Moats a risky, but potential start this week for those in a bind.
New England 27 (-4) MIAMI 20: The Pats have had their issues in South Florida, but hard to see them losing after the MNF embarrassment. Randy Moss will find the end zone...twice....Ricky Williams remains a must start, but I am not convinced he can make it through Week 16 getting 20+ touches every game. Backup Lex Hilliard is the type of safety blanket pickup that savvy owners will make for the playoff run.
INDIANAPOLIS 24 Tennessee 20 (+6.5): Never safe going against Peyton Manning, but nobody is hotter than the Titans. Only thing making me nervous is everyone seems to be jumping on the VY/CJ bandwagon this week...not that long ago Kenny Britt was a fantasy reserve and Pierre Garçon was a fantasy who dat. Now both are worthy WR3 or flex starts, playing against the Colts inexperienced corners and the Titans improved but 31st ranked pass defense, respectively.
Philadelphia 28 (-5.5) ATLANTA 17: Both teams are dealing with injuries, but it should be easier for the Eagles to overcome the loss of DeSean Jackson (concussion) than it will be for the Falcons to offset the absence of Matt Ryan (toe) and Michael Turner (ankle). Plus, Chris Redman. Eh, good luck with that...Jason Avant has been posting strong numbers with Jackson on the field so do not be afraid to use him this week against the Falcons 27th ranked pass defense.
CINCINNATI 28 (-13) Detroit 10: Cedric Benson is back. Carson Palmer is due. The Lions are the Lions.
New Orleans 27 (-8.5) WASHINGTON 17: Would be very easy to go with the old trap game argument for the Saints, going on the road in a short week after whooping the Pats. Of course, not sure the Redskins can consistently score enough week to week and the injuries on both sides of the ball are piling up.
CAROLINA 24 (-4.5) Tampa Bay 19: Steve Smith has a stellar matchup; the question is whether Matt Moore is aggressive enough to help him exploit it. Jury is out, but roll the dice if you need the upside...No Jake Delhomme interceptions this week means everyone's favorite Sunday drinking game is on hold...if Cadillac Williams is a potential weekly option for your backfield, this is a good spot to use him. The Panthers rank 26th against the run and Caddy posted 16-77-1 against them earlier this season.
CHICAGO 23 St. Louis 17 (+9): The 23 projected points for the Bears speaks more about the Rams ineptitude on defense than the Bears lackluster offense. Jay Cutler's swashbuckling style works a little better against a defense that has only eight picks on the season, but I would still prefer a more stable QB option if available.
San Diego 26 CLEVELAND 14 (+13.5): While this game should be a no-doubter for the Bolts, they need to come out and take it to the over-matched Browns so as to avoid that occasional stinker that they deliver from time to time...Chris Jennings remains available in most of my leagues. Unless you are just stacked at RB or have no cut man, he should be signed, even as a defensive measure, Starting backs do not grow on trees.
San Francisco 23 (Pick 'em) SEATTLE 20: No great feel here, but going with the better overall team. Hard to believe that is the side with Alex Smith at quarterback, but it is...The Seahawks passing game will need to generate points against the Niners 28th ranked pass defense, especially since their backfield is a up in the air now that Justin Forsett suffered a late week injury. Factor in the projected return of Julius Jones and owners that have been riding Forsett need to have alternate option at the ready.
NY Giants 20 (+2.5) Dallas 17: No doubt the Giants have struggled for several weeks, but the Cowboys swoon in December. For at least this week, I'll give the Giants the benefit of the doubt one more time and project scores from Mario Manningham and their defense in the win.
Minnesota 30 (-3) ARIZONA 24: If Kurt Warner is good to go, the Cards can cover. This is the most intriguing game of the week as the Vikes are rolling but the Cards have been a spunky group that remains underrated. Brett Favre should light up a Cards secondary that has been beaten like a drum the past month. As for Warner, the Cards are calling him a game-time decision. Unless you have Matt Leinart, I would not wait on Warner if your other options play earlier in the day as he is still dealing with sensitivity to light. Even if Warner goes, the matchup is not all that - plus I would worry one big hit puts him on the sideline - and much worse for Leinart against the Vikes' overall stout defense.
GREEN BAY 24 (-3) Baltimore 20: Aaron Rodgers will certainly need a lengthy visit to his chiropractor after the Ravens pass rush is done with him, but he still manages to throw two scores for the 10th time in 11 games.
Bonus College Football coverage
Alabama 20 (+5.5) Florida 17: Everyone slurps Tim Tebow and, for what he has done on the field, rightfully so. Yet I say the Tide's defense does enough to slow him down and moves on to the BCS Title game.
Texas 28 Nebraska 20 (+14): Sooooo tempted to go for the upset since I want TCU to get into the championship game, but the Cornhuskers offense can't stay with the Longhorns from start to finish.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 13 - Cincinnati (Their offense has been off, but Benson is back and I mean, they play the Lions)
Week 12 - Dallas (As stated above, it is hard to know what to make of the Cowboys, but on a short week and coming off a big win, hard to see Oakland winning. San Diego is my fallback)
Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)
Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)
Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)
Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)
Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)
Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore