NFL Picks: Week 2
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Two of the NFL season...
These fantasy musings and game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hand, but who got this posted late because once again, the dog ate his homework...
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Home Team in CAPS
Last week: Straight (13-3); Spread (11-4-1)
Baltimore 20 (-2.5) CINCINNATi 14: The Bengals got rolled early by the Patriots last week. This week it will be a slow, methodical and ultimately painful loss as the Ravens out physical another opponent… Fantasy Angle: Cedric Benson ran over and through the Ravens defense in two games last season, but Ray Lewis and crew have their minds set for revenge. Benson likely remains an RB2 play for many and perhaps a short TD can salvage the day, but his yards will be few and hard to come by.
CLEVELAND 20 (-2.5) Kansas City 17: Wow did the Chiefs look fast against the Chargers, especially their young talent. Now said youth will get their first road test. Expect them to come up short against an improved Browns squad that is 7-1 against the number in their last eight games…Fantasy Angle – With the Browns expected to start Seneca Wallace over the injured Jake Delhomme, look for plenty of running opportunities for Jerome Harrison and the powerful Peyton Hillis, making both worthy flex or low-end RB2 plays.
GREEN BAY 38 (12.5) Buffalo 17: Even though the Packers scored 27 points against a strong defense last week, the overall fantasy numbers were rather eh. That will not be the case against the Bills suspect defense. Expect Aaron Rodgers and crew to find their mojo… Fantasy Angle - Brandon Jackson, we all know the deal here. This is either going to be a two or more TD day kind of game or he struggles enough that the Packers start talking trade, and fast. I say the former, with one score coming from 40 yards out. His risk remains moderately high until we production so do not sit an obvious starter over him, but this is going to be interesting...
TENNESSEE 17 (-5.5) Pittsburgh 10: The Steel Curtain looked like they were back to their big and bold ways in the season opener and they will continue to keep the team in games while the offense plays on without Ben Roethlisberger, However, they are also now playing without starting left tackle Max Starks (high ankle sprain) and the Titans own aggressive defense harasses Dennis Dixon all day while Vince Young's legs make multiple big plays to set up scores…Fantasy Angle – To Chris Johnson or not Chris Johnson is the question some risk-taking owners will be contemplating after watching the Steelers throttle Michael Turner in their opener. Plus CJ has averaged only 63 rush yards with one TD in two career games against Pittsburgh. Still, how can you sit the gold tooth speedster? I won't.
Philadelphia 27 DETROIT 23 (+6): The Eagles will be without their starting quarterback, fullback and center when they take on the upstart Lions in the Motor City. This spot is ripe for an upset, especially after the way the Lions got hosed by a brutal rule last week, but a late Brent Celek touchdown secures the road win...Fantasy Angle: Calvin Johnson's non-touchdown was the talk of the league after week one and once again you can expect a ton of talk about the Lions game this week as well, but more so because of the guy expected to take snaps for the other team. Barring an unexpected recovery by Kevin Kolb, Michael Vick is likely to start an NFL game under center for the first time since the 2006 season and is a top-10 fantasy QB play. Do not sit the Rodgers', Romo's and Schaub's of the world for him, but as for say Flacco, Favre and Cutler? Yes, yes and hmmm, yeah.
DALLAS 28 (-7) Chicago 17: Still not quite sure why the Cowboys went with the game plan they did against the Redskins last week, but no matter how the choose to attack a Bears squad that should have lost to the Lions at home in week one, it will all work…Fantasy Angle – Tony Romo's stat line; 23-32, 312 yards, 3TDP. You want more? Fine. The touchdown passes will be thrown to Miles Austin (24 yards), Dez Bryant (40) and Martellus Bennett (four).
CAROLINA 23 (-3.5) Tampa Bay 16: Matt Moore (concussion) is probable to play, but it is a lock that the Panthers go heavy with the ground attack to help keep the young QB from uncomfortable down-and-distance situations. In their two wins over the Bucs last season, the Panthers ran for 427 yards…Fantasy Angle – This will ultimately be closer to a 50-50 split backfield, but right now DeAngelo Williams is getting the touches over Jonathan Stewart and this week he turns them into 130+ yards.
ATLANTA 24 (-6.5) Arizona 17: Have gone back and forth with this pick, but ultimately do not like those west coast teams playing the early game on the other coast. As for Atlanta, still not buying the Matt Ryan hype, but Roddy White is another story. The Falcons top wide out hauled in 13 of an unreal 21 targets in the opener and now faces a secondary that allowed the pedestrian Mark Clayton to post a 10-119 performance. The Falcons soar to a win on the wings of another big outing from Roddy…Fantasy Angle – Even though they were far from being a strong fantasy defense last week, the Falcons have a chance to make amends in their home opener. Granted, Derek Anderson did not throw an interception last week, but he was wildly inaccurate. This time some of those misses end up in the hands of Dunta Robinson and other members of the Falcons defense so consider them a good rotational option this week.
MINNESOTA 24 Miami 23 (+5.5): It is too early to call this a must win for the Vikings, but after they face the Lions in week 3 and then have their bye, the October schedule shows at NYJ, Dallas, @GB, @NE. Brutal. Call that extra motivation on top of the week one loss to the Saints, enough for them to pull out the win in the final minutes . Fantasy Angle – Facing the Williams Wall, the Dolphins are unlikely to have too much success on the ground while top receiver Brandon Marshall will be matched against the Vikings top corner Antoine Winfield. That means Davone Bess is in line to have at least six receptions for the second straight week and thus is a decent WR3 play in PPR leagues.
OAKLAND 27 (-3.5) St. Louis 17: OK, so the Raiders are not ready yet to stay with the big boys, as evidenced by their shellacking at the hands of the Titans a week ago. That will not be the case when they host the lowly Rams in their home opener…Fantasy Angle – Those that believed third year a charm for Darren McFadden were rewarded with a strong fantasy showing last week. Since Michael Bush will likely be limited if he plays, the Raiders will one against ride D-Mac in the running and passing game.
DENVER 31 (-3) Seattle 14: Sorry Seahawks, still not buying into you. Teams coming off big road wins that hit the road the following week often have issues and this particular squad is simply not nearly as formidable as they appeared to be a week ago…Fantasy Angle – so how specifically will the Broncos inflict this beat down? Kyle Orton shreds a secondary that ranked 30th against the pass last year. Last season he did not have his first three-TDP game until Week 16. This year he reaches that mark much, much sooner.
WASHINGTON 20 (+3) Houston 19: On the surface, the Texans would seem to be the logical pick in the Shanahan Family and Coaching Tree bowl, but they used a lot of emotional capital in their season opening win against the Colts, their long time division nemesis. The Redskins won their own rivalry game last week, but struggled on offense. More importantly, they stay at home and that will be the difference here and Graham Gano kicks the winning field goal at the gun…Fantasy Angle – Since the Texans will move the ball yet struggle to find the end zone against a Redskins defense that allowed the Cowboys only touchdown in the opener. That means kicker Neil Rackers should be called on early and often.
SAN DIEGO 28 Jacksonville 20 (+9): Philip Rivers was in line for a better statistical game against the Chiefs, but he had receiver slip sliding all over the place and he could not convert on the Chargers final drive. No problems this week under the sunny San Diego skies and against a Jaguars defense that allowed 295 passing yards to Kyle Orton last week. Fantasy Angle – As discussed here in the preseason, Mike Sims-Walker will struggle to produce relevant fantasy numbers this year, but his wing man Mike Thomas will pick up the slack. He cracks 80 yards for the second straight week, this time adding a score to boot.
New England 16 NY JETS 14 (+3): As much as I am down on the Jets following their "Hard Knocks" of a preseason , the end of the world scenario being discussed by many a pundit and fan after they lost by one point to the Ravens is overblown. It won't be after they lose two straight…Fantasy Angle – No Laurence Maroney means more Fred Taylor but he will have little room to run against the Jets run defense, so look for the Patriots to use a heavy dose of Kevin Faulk. PPR owners take note.
INDIANAPOLIS 30 (-5) NY Giants 24: Come on, who thinks the Colts are going 0-2? Yeah, not me. Even though their defense left much to be desired against Arian Foster last week, expect a more stout effort this go-round…Fantasy Angle -This week on the FFToolbox podcast, guest Evan Silva from Rotoworld noted that the Colts offensive line issues will force Peyton Manning to throw underneath more to Austin Collie then deep to Pierre Garcon. Collie won't have double digit reception totals each week, but since the Colts are facing a strong Giants pass rush, he will continue to rack up the grabs.
SAN FRANCISCO 27 (+5.5) New Orleans 24: Only rationale reason I can wrap my head around as to why the Niners threw up all over themselves against the Seahawks was that they were looking ahead to this game against the defending Super Bowl champs. Seeing as how the Saints offense was not hitting on all cylinders either, look for both offenses to find their way, but the Niners early lead will be too much to overcome…Fantasy Angle - Frank Gore bounces back after picking up a measly 38 yards against Seattle and doubles that total in the first half alone, and finishes with 125+ combined yards and a touchdown.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***The only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road, so other than in scenarios where I have no other options or say the Colts are at the Rams, I am taking home favs.
Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego. Certainly the Green Bay Packers are the obvious pick as the heaviest favorite on the board, but they have Week 4 matchup against the Lions that will be useful. Also maybe we get lucky and they lose this week, which would likely knockout half the pool. Neither the Cowboys nor the Chargers have an obvious Survivor game on the immediate horizon and both are relatively safe bets this week after losing their season openers.
Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants