Dr. B's e-mailbag; Jets-Bills pick
Like the voluminous amount of letters written to Santa before Christmas, Dr. B's mailbag is starting to get full, from both excited readers and nervous nellie's, plus others who are just flat out giddy because the postseason is right around the corner. Below are fantasy related questions from actual readers, followed by a pick in the Jets-Bills Thursday night clash. If you want a second opinion, send your email to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com and as always, turn to the FFToolbox.com rankings for the latest updates.
These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he finished protecting his car by hiding all his golf clubs...
From: Adam H...need one of these receivers to start this week; Kenny Britt, Jerricho Cotchery or Pierre Garcon. Who ya got?
Dr. B: Have been touting all of these players at various times this year. Despite his poor Week 12, Cotchery has been rather consistent when healthy for the Jets, but hard to trust Mark Sanchez and the Bills defense have been surprisingly solid against the pass...how great was Britt last week! This week against the Colts thin secondary, the rookie wide out has a great chance to score, but I still rank him second here. You just cannot count on VY throwing for all those yards again and the Titans remain a run-oriented team...That leaves Garcon, who has become a legit weekly option over the past month. Garcon has at least 50 receiving yards in five straight games, plus touchdowns in two of the last three and he has a great matchup against the Titans 31st ranked pass defense. Oh, and that Peyton Manning guy throws him the ball. That helps.
From: William B...How would rank the following QBs for the remainder of the season, Vince Young or Joe Flacco? How would you rank the following WR's for the remainder of the season (PPR), Steve Breaston, Robert Meacham, Jason Avant?
Dr. B: VY is on a roll and he has a favorable schedule down the stretch, starting with the beat up Colts secondary followed by the Rams, the first of three straight home games. Though he has not thrown for more than one TD pass in a game this season and has only once passed for over 210 yards, Young has tacked on enough rushing yards to average 14.2 fantasy points in his five starts. On the other hand, Flacco is far removed from his early season success and had gone three straight starts without a TD pass before connecting on one last week. Other than a Week 14 start against the Lions, his schedule is not great either.
As for the receivers, Meacham is not a prototype PPR play, but scoring five times in four games is not the norm either. For now I'd stay with him, but Avant is coming on (17-276-1 over last three weeks) and moves to the top if DeSean Jackson's concussion keeps him off the field for any length of time.
From: Clint J...I have Carson Palmer and Kurt Warner. Should I go with Palmer regardless if Warner plays or not?
Dr. B: Yes. Warner did return to practice on Wednesday and said the "fogginess" is gone. Still, considering his history of concussions and the brand spanking new NFL rule regarding when a player can return to the field after being diagnosed with one, I would worry that Warner may not play the entire game. Plus, the Vikings defense he faces is a formidable group, while Palmer gets a Lions unit that has allowed an NFL worst 27 TD passes. The Bengals offense has been off-kilter lately, but the matchup is just too good to ignore.
From Mike O...With Michael Turner possibly out again, is Jason Snelling the answer this week or should I start Tim Hightower, Shonn Greene or perhaps sign Jerious Norwood. I have M. Lynch as well, but already starting Fred Jackson.
Dr. B: Correct, it does not look good for Turner after he was rushed back last week, so Snelling and Norwood will get the touches in a not so great matchup with the Eagles. While I suspect Snelling gets the goal line carries and thus makes for a fine start, my gut tells me that Norwood is the back to use this week. Norwood, who I wrote about in this week's Deep League Pickups column, looked to have his top gear in his return last week. While the 4th-year runner probably will not receive more than 12-14 carries, his big play potential seems to make up for it each week, like a 22-yard td catch against the Bucs. Frankly all your options are comparable, but Hightower is dealing with a thumb injury, something you don't want to see for a guy who makes his fantasy living catching passes. But if Turner plays, go Hightower over Greene and the Falcons duo if the Cards back is good to go himself.
From Anil N...one week before the playoffs, but have already clinched my division. Now I can just sit back and watch the other owners sweat it out. Of course, I want to win it all so what advice do you have so I don't go Jake Delhomme in the '08 playoffs and throw my chances away?
Dr. B: Kudos on the locked playoff spot, but yes, there is still work to be done. For a detailed breakdown of my pre-playoff game plan, listen to the first few minutes of this week's Podcast, but here is the down and dirty version:
1) Know your league rules - It is bad enough to lose because Matt Ryan gets knocked out of the game in the 1Q or your opponent rocks the casbah with a Justin Forsett-Bernard Scott RB combo, but losing because you simply did not familiarize yourself with the rules will haunt you all offseason. Inexcusable
2) Get your handcuffs - Even the laziest owner's pay attention in the postseason so it becomes much harder to grab a backup RB or QB if the starter goes down.
3) Block your opponents - If your Week 14 opponent normally sports the Broncos defense, but likely will opt for another squad because they play the Colts that week, why not swoop in now and grab the Titans (vs. Rams) if possible? Anyone who calls this strategy cheap is just pissed they were too lazy to do it themselves.
4) Doppler 4000 - Some times Mother Nature ruins the best laid plans (see Brady, Tom, Week 15, '07), so dress your roster accordingly. If you cannot pick up players in the postseason, take a look at backup kickers, receivers and QBs that play in likely good weather situations. I would rather use Mason Crosby than Neil Rackers most weeks, but the Packers kicker plays in three straight cold weather sites (Chi, Pitt, GB) while Rackers goes dome-and-dome (Det, Arz) in Weeks 15-16.
5) Gut Check - Information is gold and Dr. B is always happy to dole out the 411, but it is your team. You will be the one tossing and turning all offseason if you started Brandon Jacobs and your gut was screaming for Jamaal Charles. Get in touch with your inner coach and figure out which player you will kick yourself over for not using. That is the guy you want in.
Last week: 12-4 straight, 9-7 spread
Overall (thru Week 12): 120-58 straight; 94-83-1 spread
BUFFALO 17 (+3) NY Jets 16: This game is not exactly a fantasy feast, but Thomas Jones should be dining on the Bills 32nd ranked run defense all night. Obviously he is a must start, but you can push up your expectations in this one. On the other hand, Braylon Edwards (2-50 in last two games) is just not worth the risk to use at this point...Is TO back? Clearly he has come alive since Ryan Fitzpatrick entered the lineup (seriously, Ryan Fitzpatrick?), but Darrelle Revis has shut down many a receiver this year. Ride the hot hand if you must, be Owens is probably no better than a middling WR3 play.
As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup decisions, trades, free agents or what I think will happen on "Survivor" the rest of the way, to ben.standig@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action.
Home team in CAPS