Best Bets for Week Five of the NFL season
Now that the NFL season has made it through Week 4, it is time to encapsulate all that we have observed and make up some way to early superlative teams. Without further adieu...
Almost 1/4 Pole All Star Team
QB - Peyton Manning
RB - Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson
WR - Steve Smith, Reggie Wayne
TE - Dallas Clark
K - Lawrence Tynes
Def - New Orleans
- The 4-0 Colts are well represented on this squad as well they should with their conductor Peyton Manning off to arguably the best start of his career... All Day and CJ each used one mega performance to help catapult them to the top if RB scoring this year, though both have scored in double digits three of four weeks. The top shelf runners have not been a consistent bunch so far...The Giants Steve Smith, or as Bill Simmons has dubbed him Steve Smith 2.0, has been playing like a man possessed and while he won't keep up this pace, he should continue to produce on a Pro Bowl level...The Saints defense as both a fantasy and real world star has been one of the surprises of the season. Look for more as teams are forced to pass early and often to keep up with Drew Brees and company, which plays into the hands of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' blitz happy scheme...Tynes, well, despite the misses he has scored the most fantasy points
Almost 1/4 Pole All Bust Team
QB - Tony Romo
RB - LaDainian Tomlinson, LenDale White
WR - Eddie Royal, Braylon Edwards
TE - Jason Witten
K - Rod Bironas
Def - Pittsburgh
- To be a member of this squad, one had to be drafted early/ or be considered among the tops at their position pre-draft and come up short so far, something the Broncos Royal epitomizes most of all. To go from some predicting he would lead the NFL in receptions to being cut in league after league by Week 4 is stunning...Less shocking has been the early season squadoosh that owners have received from LT2, but even more painful considering where he was drafted. He has the Week 5 bye to heal and the Chargers schedule gets a little easier in the coming weeks so there is room (just a little though) for optimism, but that does not change how little he did early on...LenDale is simply a Chris Johnson handcuff until further notice, a big drop his RB2 status last season...as for Romo, his on the field production has been the worst among the elite QB' with nearly all of his damage coming in Week One. Three TDP and zero picks in the opener, one score and four interceptions since. Kurt Warner is a close second, but he has scored in double digits each week. If Romo, who dragged his BFF Witten on this list because of his inconsistent play, and Roy Williams do not find a rhythm and soon, this could be a long year for Romo owners...The Steelers defense ranks 31st in fantasy defense scoring in standard, non-yardage allowed leagues. Noooooobody saw that coming, but they make for a great buy low option especially with Troy Polamalu expected to return soon...
Almost 1/4 Pole Surprise Team
QB - Joe Flacco
RB - Willis McGahhee, Cadillac Williams
WR - Mike Sims-Walker, Jerricho Cotchery
TE - Brent Celek
K - Josh Scobee
Def - Denver
- raise your hand if you had Flacco AND McGahee in the top-5 of fantasy scoring in their respective positions at this point. Even crazier, the young QB has a great chance to stay there as the Ravens have become a pass happy unit and the poised Flacco is using big arm to make plays downfield. On the hand, McGahee is already starting to watch his touches drop, making him a sell-high option despite his strong start...As for Cadillac, he is here more for the fact that he came out of nowhere to take the Bucs starting RB spot and has managed to stay upright through four games...While Cotchery and Celek made the team because they have exceeded expectations so far, barely anyone knew enough about Sims-Walker prior to the season to even make realistic projections, though he shined in limited looks last season...The Broncos were beat out by the Saints for the All-Star team on the last week, but their turnaround from sieve to stellar has been remarkable...
Ok, on to the weekly picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only...
Last week: 11-3 straight, 5-9 spread
Overall: 45-17 straight; 33-29 spread
Minnesota 30 (-10) St. Louis 10: AP is due for a monster day
Dallas 24 Kansas City 17 (+8): Cowboys get the win, but they have not shown enough to warrant much confidence
Carolina 23 (-4) Washington 16: Who thinks "the artist formally known as the only Steve Smith" spent the bye week watching film of DeAngelo Hall and salivating at the thought of getting to run patterns against him.
Philadelphia 27 Tampa Bay 13 (-14): McNabb and Westbrook are due back, but just enough remains to keep the close-ish through halftime.
NY Giants 28 (-14.5) Oakland 10: You know the Raiders are just awful when I pick the Giants to cover even while fully expecting David Carr to start for the injured Eli Manning
Buffalo 20 Cleveland 17 (+6): Nothing to see here, move along.
Baltimore 23 Cincinnati 17 (+8.5): The Bengals have been finding a way to win, but they are simply not as good as the Ravens, who will not lose two in a row all season.
Pittsburgh 34 (-10.5) Detroit 17: Not buying a seat on the Rashard Mendenhall bandwagon just yet, but Franco Harris could lead the Steelers past the Lions this week.
San Francisco 24 (-2.5) Atlanta 20: Shaun Hill is the NFC version of Kyle Orton; he may not get a lot of style points, but he just wins.
New England 24 (-3) Denver 20: Kudos to the Broncos for their 4-0 start and while I am a believer to a degree, they are not in the Patriots class regardless.
Houston 28 (+5.5) Arizona 27: Just as Andre Johnson (6-102-1) gets the best of Larry Fitzgerald (5-80), so do the Texans over the Cards
Jacksonville-Seattle, no line: Hasselbeck plays, Seattle 24-20. Hasselbeck sits, Jacksonville 23-17
Indianapolis 30 (-3.5) Tennessee 17: This is what happens when the most consistent passing attack plays a secondary that has not stopped anyone.
NY Jets 20 (-1.5) Miami 16: Going with the Jets defense against Chad Henne over the more logical home team in a division game on Monday Night.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore
Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay
Week 3 - Baltimore
Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)
Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance"