NFL Picks and Fantasy Angles - Week 9
Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week Nine of the NFL season...
These game predictions do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com but just a solo fantasy writer who is not sure whether he is crazy excited or horribly frightened that Tom Cruise might be doing a follow up to Top Gun.
As a reminder, email any questions, be it about lineup fantasy decisions, trades, strategy or free agents, to podcast@fftoolbox.com and I will respond before the start of Sunday's action. Also do not forget to check out the weekly FFToolbox.com podcast - hosted by yours truly - every week or anytime via ITunes.
Home Team in CAPS
Last week: Straight (8-5), Spread (8-5); Overall: Straight (68-49); Spread (66-49-2)
BUFFALO 26 (+3) Chicago 24: Teams coming off a bye have done well this year, but it just does not seem right to pick the tiresome Bears over the plucky Bills even if the game is being played in Toronto. Who would have believed that not only is Ryan Fitzpatrick the better QB in this game, fantasy or otherwise, but it is very clear that he is…Fantasy Angle – Two-for-one angles, both on the Bears. 50, 29, 29, 26, 166, 11, 41. These are not the numbers of drinks, drugs or women Charlie Sheen consumed each day last week, but Matt Forte's rushing totals per game this year. The Bears are 26th in rushing offense, but the Bills are dead last when it comes to giving your yards on the ground. Something has to give. Call me a fool for believing Mike Martz will do what is right – that is getting the run moving to help the offensive line out - but Forte picks up 150 total yards and reaches the end zone, making him my Sleeper of the Week. Also note that the Bills are also worst when it comes to covering the tight end, making Greg Olsen worth a spot start.
HOUSTON 31 (+3) San Diego 24: One of those odd lines, especially since Andre Johnson is now listed as probable and Antonio Gates is doubtful. These two squads could make a deep run if they reach the playoffs, but need to get moving if that is going to happen. I'll take the home squad…Fantasy Angle – How good is Philip Rivers this year? It does not matter who is lined up at receiver, that player is deemed worthy/interesting by the fantasy world. Example, the previously unknown Seyi Ajirotutu is also getting a lot of "flyer" talk. With Gates, Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee all "doubtful", Patrick Crayton - the poor man's Braylon Edwards- is worth a start (WR3 or Flex for sure) against the Texans 32nd ranked pass defense.
CAROLINA 21 (+6.5) New Orleans 20: Halfway through the season, do you believe the Saints are the team that just knocked off the mighty Steelers or the squad that has struggled against some of the league's also-rans? Based on my prediction, clearly I am picking the latter, especially until Reggie Bush/ or Pierre Thomas return to action…Fantasy Angle – Among the reasons to think this game will not be a shootout, Saints allowing fewest points to fantasy passers, Panthers fourth. Obviously you start Drew Brees and clearly you sit Matt Moore, but any receivers in this game not named Marques Colston and maybe Steve Smith are considered borderline at best.
MINNESOTA 27 (-7.5) Arizona 17: We could be looking at another Dallas Cowboys packing it in situation with the Vikings after the Randy Moss/Brad Childress debacle, but I say the guys in purple get the job done…Fantasy Angle – Though the Cardinals offense is not as abysmal with Derek Anderson under center as it was with Max Hall, note that they are allowing 12.3 fantasy points to opposing defenses, worst in the league. With Brett Favre continuing to be careless with the ball, Vikes are not far behind, making Cards defense worth a shot if needed.
ATLANTA 27 (-8) Tampa Bay 17: Bucs have been a great feel good story, but the non-fiction tale coming out of the NFC South is that the Falcons are the truth…Fantasy Angle – It goes without saying that Michael Turner is starting for you this week. However, any chance you can trade for the productive back at a reasonable price – his stat line week -to-week has been spotty - goes out the window after he powers past a Bucs squad allowing the fifth most points to fantasy runners this season.
NY Jets 24 DETROIT 20 (+5): Still not sure what happened to the Jets last week, but they get back on track on against the Lions, but as Lee Corso would say, closer than the experts (NFL and Vegas) think…Fantasy Angle – ideally Matthew Stafford is not in your lineup against the Jets powerhouse of a defense, but the fact that it is not a horrible fallback shows how far both the second-year QB and the historically brutal team has come. The Lions offense has been rather prolific this season, to the point that I would be fine rolling with Stafford the rest of the way if that meant I could trade Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, etc for help elsewhere.
BALTIMORE 20 Miami 17 (+5.5): The under-the-radar potential AFC playoff matchup of the week. Give it to the home team, but the Dolphins are on the come and will be dangerous if Chad Henne becomes more consistent…Fantasy Angle – Every Ronnie Brown owner wishing their guy would finally do something, every Ravens fan wishing they could move to South Beach.
New England 31 (-4.5) CLEVELAND 20: At this point, the difference between Tom Brady and Colt McCoy on the field is still not as great as than the gap between Cris Collinsworth and Jon Gruden in the booth…Fantasy Angle – Pats defense giving up major yards through the air. Too bad TE Ben Watson and RB Peyton Hillis are the only Browns who might be able to take advantage of it. Both are worth starting, as are nearly every healthy Patriot you can get your hands on.
NY Giants 27 (-7) SEATTLE 13: The top team in the NFC travels west and throttles the Charlie Whitehurst led Seahawks. This game will be as competitive as a spelling bee between Terry Bradshaw and anyone…Fantasy Angle – Giants defense allowing third fewest rush yards and oh, did I mention Charlie Whitehurst is starting for Seahawks? Outside of taking a shot in the dark that Mike Williams hauls in a jump ball pass in the end zone or having no RB option other than Marshawn Lynch with six teams on a bye, I would run away from the Seahawks this week faster than Pete Carroll left USC.
OAKLAND 28 (-1) Kansas City 26: The top two rushing teams in the league battle for the right to claim they are the hottest team in the AFC West, if not the conference. Seriously…Fantasy Angle – This game will look like a 70's era Oklahoma-Nebraska clash with all the running by both sides. With Zach Miller listed as doubtful and Louis Murphy likely out, the Raiders will do all they can to feed their talented backfield. If you did not notice Michael Bush's 15-52-1 line in the romp over the Broncos, surely his 100+ total yards and a score effort against the Seahawks caught your eye. If not, just trust me, when I say that as long as the Raiders are in situations where they will be able to stay with the ground game, Bush has flex and low-end RB2 appeal
PHILADELPHIA 24 Indianapolis 23 (+3): The polar opposite in every way QB matchup will go to Peyton Manning, but Michael Vick and the Eagles lay their claim to being a Super Bowl contender with the win…Fantasy Angle – Those hoping for post-bye week resurgence from Brent Celek likely will need to wait a week. Colts tops in (fantasy) defending tight ends this year. On flip side, Eagles are a bottom-8 squad when it comes to allowing points. Yes, I go Jacob Tamme over Celek this week.
GREEN BAY 38 (-7.5) Dallas 24: Very nice of the NFL to schedule the Cowboys joke of a secondary for Aaron Rodgers after the Packers QB was in a dog fight with the Jets last week. This could be a 350+ yards, 4 TDP outing unless the defense just turns turnover after turnover into touchdown after touchdown…Fantasy Angle – The Tweet of the Week comes from our pal Evan Silva who drops this knowledge on us; "Since Jon Kitna replaced Tony Romo, Roy Williams has 1 catch for 21 yards on 6 targets. Dez Bryant 11 catches, 138 yds, 2 TDs on 16 targets."
Pittsburgh 20 (-4.5) CINCINNATI 13: The most puzzling outcome from last week was the Steelers falling to the Saints and doing so without putting up much of an offensive fight. Not a lot of points this week either, but no shock they pile on the fading Bengals…Fantasy Angle – If you own Rashard Mendenhall or Cedric Benson, start planning for fallback options in the playoffs. The numbers say the Bengals backs will face the toughest schedule in week 14-16, while the Steelers matchups clock them in at 29th. Using either of them to try and acquire one of the many backs on a bye (Chris Johnson, Gore, Steven Jackson, MJD, Moreno) makes a whole lot of sense if you can swing it and afford.
Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools
***the only rule that I follow almost religiously involves taking home teams. Most of the upsets occur when the favorite goes on the road (note many folks lost when they took Bengals, Chargers or Saints away from home). So other than in scenarios where I have no other options (or say the Colts or Ravens are at the Rams or Bills), I am going with the home crowd...
Week 9 – Green Bay…Cowboys have packed it in and who doesn't like to beat them up when they are down. Minnesota and Atlanta are riskier, but the best remaining home team options available…Since I lost in my league, my picks will know simply consist of my three top plays on any given week, regardless of who was used before. If still alive, would go with Atlanta.
Week 8 – Kansas City Week 7 – Baltimore, Week 6 – Chicago, Week 5 – Indianapolis, Week 4 – Green Bay, Week 3 - New England, Week 2 – Dallas, San Diego, Week 1 - Tennessee, NY Giants