Ben's Fantasy Football Quarterback Analysis

After keeping the new-fangled FFToolbox.com blog parked for most of the off-season, it is time bring her out and see what she can do. Starting now and basically until I get carpal tunnel, expect updates, analysis, news, nuggets and random musings about fantasy football, the NFL, the world of sports and whatever else pops into my mind.

In addition, starting this Tuesday from 7:00-7:30 pm EST, I will be hosting the FFToolbox Podcast where I, along with our writers and other special guests, will be answering your important calls and email questions throughout the season. We will breakdown the week that was, analyze changes in our player rankings, tout the hot free agents and provide a look ahead. The immediate focus is of course on getting everyone ready to go for their upcoming league drafts and this week will looking at the Quarterbacks, from where you should start considering drafting the top guns, to who presents the best value and which passers should you let another some other team take a swing at. We'll also tackle team defense along with any breaking news as FFToolbox writers George Bissell and Vin Sadicario stop by to help with the heavy lifting.

As a primer for the podcast and after slogging through several experts' league mock drafts, including one nearly completed version that will play out, I wanted to lay out my own take on this year's crop of Quarterbacks. Below is my top-20 with each player's current ADP (Average Draft Position) shown next to their name and detailed look at the different tiers below.

1	Tom Brady	15.8		11	Jay Cutler	85.9
2	Drew Brees	15.4		12	Carson Palmer	84.1
3	Peyton Manning	27.4		13	Ben Roethlisberger	100.8
4	Aaron Rodgers	37.4		14	Matt Cassel	106.8
5	Philip Rivers	44.5		15	Matt Hasselbeck	106.9
6	Tony Romo	58.5		16	Kyle Orton	121.8
7	Donovan McNabb	60.3		17	David Garrard	133.4
8	Matt Schaub	72.3		18	Eli Manning	118.3
9	Kurt Warner	50.5		19	Trent Edwards	120.9
10	Matt Ryan	72.4		20	Sage Rosenfels*	157.5

* This was posted a couple of hours before the breaking Favre news. Updated below

Brees, Brady top the charts; Manning closer to Rodgers

As long as you are not overreacting to the larger than life resumes of Brees, Brady and Manning, there is no reason to fear taking any of the three this year. Along with Rodgers, this quartet all plays in fantastic scenarios and should generate vast quantity of fantasy points. Still, there is a pecking order within the quartet with Brees and Brady in a virtual dead heat at the top.

Brees tossed 34 touchdowns and an astonishing 5,069 yards last year and while he is not likely to reach those levels again, playing for the uber-aggressive play caller Sean Payton will keep the Saints numbers in the high rent district.?Brady has much to prove coming off his injured '08 season and the Patriots killer instinct offense will be frightening starting week one. Nuff said. With Brees off the board, I have taken Brady twice and been thrilled both times. We are talking about a 50-50 call here, but – and call it a man crush if you must – I would take the Golden Boy in what is sure to be a triumphant return to the NFL

Manning is my QB in another league and while I expect to see an uptick in production, the change at the top (bye bye Tony Dungy), on the outside (Marvin Harrison) and the lack of new bodies along their so-so offensive line makes this creature of habit's ceiling below the top two.

No player had more pressure last year than Rodgers and he came through with the sweet smell of success, at least for fantasy owners. I look for the Packers to win the NFC North because of their improved defense, but mostly because of the serious amount of points the offense will score, giving Rodgers ample opportunity to crash the top-3 party.?A cut above the next group, I can see myself waiting until the late third/early fourth and snagging the Packers signal caller in one of my remaining drafts.

No need to rush for rest of QB1; Romo, Schaub offer value

If you do not get one of the top three QB's – or Rodgers, who is a tier unto himself in my opinion – don't fret as there are several strong options remaining, but little separates the other QB1 options.

Romo, Rivers, Warner, McNabb, Cutler and Ryan round out the FFToolbox top-10, though my own list has Schaub in the mix with Palmer and Roethlisberger right behind them.

There are no real reasons to knock any of them, though my concerns about Warner getting hurt and Cutler's lack of receiver options are making them the least attractive options in terms of value in my eyes. Romo will throw the rock enough to put solid numbers despite the loss of Terrell Owens, though I would draft him with more conviction if his wide receivers should signs of being able to limit the loss of TO. I like Rivers the best of this bunch, but with an ADP of 44.3, he is overvalued in relation to Jessica Simpson's former beau and others.

Ryan has a better supporting cast, though the Falcons remain run-oriented. The Eagles are one of the NFC favorites, but don't forget McNabb has not thrown for 20 or more touchdown in back-to-back seasons since 2000-01. Last but not least, my favorite value pick in this tier is Schaub (73.5), who I believe will be a top-5 QB at year's end, at least in terms of per-game average. The injury concern – he has missed five games in each of the last two seasons – knocks down him down the draft board, but the Texans offense look like it could be the breakout attack this year with Schaub leading the way.

And the talent level falls off a cliff

While there are essentially nitpicky differences between 5-10, with a couple others on the outside looking in, there is a notable drop off once we get past the top two AFC North passers. Palmer is Tom Brady lite, coming back from injury, but returning to a solid crop of wide outs and as long as the Bengals o-line can be ordinary, Palmer's numbers will not be.

The Steelers remain one of the NFL's best, but the likely post-Super Bowl hangover knocks down their intensity a peg or two down across the board, meaning the Steelers offense will need to put up more points. Expect Big Ben's final numbers to fall somewhere between his 17 scoring passes last year and his career-best 32 strikes during the 2007 season.

And then…the drop occurs. Certainly there will be surprises from among the remaining quarterbacks, but the current data shows little to be excited about. Some lost key weapons (Eli Manning, Marc Bulger), others play in rather conservative attacks (Garrard, Joe Flacco), while those that are in good situations on paper (Kyle Orton, Trent Edwards) have yet to post strong fantasy numbers.

At this point, I would not feel comfortable with any of the post Palmer-Roethlisberger quarterbacks as my top dog, though that might simply be obvious. On the other hand, in one draft I snatched up Roethlisberger in the 9th round even though I had Brady because Big Ben's value likely will be significantly higher in the coming weeks when injuries occur and owners panic over a bad game or two. Draft choices are not always about how the player will help you now, but when you can get for him later. Considering the lack of solid QB2 options, take one when you can, perhaps even a little higher than their ADP might suggest.

Because of his success with the Patriots last season, it is unlikely Cassel will come in at a bargain price. Still, Kansas City likely will be entering the second halves of games trailing so Cassel should at least have plenty of opportunities in coach Todd Haley's volume passing attack, though I am of the believe that much of Cassel's success hinged on the Patriots attack more than his own sill set. Plus other than Dwayne Bowe, there is not much there for Cassel to work with.

Hasselbeck is another QB coming off an injury-plagued season and while the offense likely turns more towards the run in the post-Mike Holmgren era, the Seahawks do get six division games with which to post serious numbers. Name recognition combined with a weak division and a team with something to prove should equate to profit taking for owners that snare Hasselbeck as their backup and either move him for help or ship their current QB to fill another need in another spot.

Because of their stud receivers, Orton and Edwards have the opportunity to be the breakout stars from this group, but the Denver QB needs to improve his play in the preseason to give fantasy owners confidence and the Bills offense needs to open up a bit more for Edwards to sniff 18+ touchdowns. Manning, and to an extent Garrard, are the classic "you know what you are going to get" type of fantasy players, though both could move closer to the top-12 if they get better than anticipated help from their receivers. The Giants do not have a proven stud receiver and their superior defense will not put them into many shootouts, but they enough weapons on offense for Manning to carry the load from time to time.

Lastly, say what you want about Rosenfels being an NFL playoff caliber QB, but he is certainly a gunslinger. With all the focus on Adrian Peterson, the Vikes should be able to make enough big plays in the passing game to make Sage a viable QB2 or bye week option most weeks. Even if Brett Favre shows up in Twin Cities – yes, another rumor suggesting as much is out there - so be it. Do not let that distract you from using a late round pick on the Vikes current starter because almost any passer (sorry, not you Tarvaris) could post solid numbers with those weapons.

8/19: Until we know more about his arm strength, #20 is a fair slot for Favre. The Vikings have deep passing weapons, so if the elbow is good to go, Favre should be able to make plays downfield. Still, he tossed 22 picks last year and the Vikes remain a run-oriented offense. Favre's historical ability for some big games makes him a potential rotation option if your QB1 is lacking, but the many unknowns keep him as a mid-to-low QB2 for now. Obviously Rosenfels is not longer a draft day option, but grab him if Favre misses time.

Future Stars and future starters and a certain former Falcons stud

Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez are the new NFL wunderkinds, but only dynasty league owners should consider taking either player with anything other than a late pick. The presence of Calvin Johnson and a horrid defense makes Stafford the more appealing choice of the two, while Sanchez likely follows the Flacco rookie game plan, meaning deep passes but few of them.

As for actual NFL backups, only the Cardinals Matt Leinart warrants consideration on draft day because of the Warner injury fears, though Brady owners in deep leagues might ponder Andrew Walter if he secures the backup job. Others to jump on if the starter in front of them goes down with an injury include Tennessee's Vince Young, Oakland's Jeff Garcia, Kansas City's Tyler Thigpen and Denver's Chris Simms.

As for Michael Vick, do not draft him based on any idea that he will be challenging McNabb for the starting role. Whether he plays as a wildcat QB or not, do not expect any serious numbers out of him unless injuries thrust him into the lineup and even though, we still do not know how much tread is left on those tires. Of course, his potential if he were to enter the lineup is intriguing so if you feel compelled to take him as a last round flyer, go for it, but keep expectations to a minimum.