Best Bets for Week Four of the NFL season

The more my Washington Redskins continue to falter, the more I thank those that came up with idea for fantasy football. For the past decade plus, the fantasy game has provided a fantastic distraction (ok, maybe obsession) since the Redskins have largely been an underachieving and dysfunctional franchise and perhaps worse, have simply been to boring for words on the field. That trend has continued this year as even their only win came courtesy of three field goals against the lowly Rams. Because their starting-22 is formidable on paper, the diehard faithful maintain their positive outlook despite all evidence to the contrary.

The reality is that no matter how Albert Haynesworth's they sign, how many Clinton Portis' they trade for or how many head coaches they got through, nothing will change until owner Dan Snyder realizes he knows squat about football. The Danny is clearly a strong businessman and the Redskins franchise is among the valuable in all of sports even despite the mounting losses, but it is also apparent based on his approach that winning on the field is not as important or no more important than the bottom line. I am not naive enough to think all owners want to make all the money they can and frankly they should since they are the ones for the most part putting up the dough. However, that is not what he says. The Redskins stance under Snyder has been that their massive free agent signings and discarding of draft picks for questionable veteran talent is all part of the plan to win the big one. Yeah, not buying it, never have, never will.

With the offensive line breaking down, Portis looking 28 going on 40 with every carry and Jim Zorn appearing overwhelmed on the sidelines, the outlook for the remainder of the 2009 season is looking bleaker than the fate of Juliet on Lost. Still, this is a good thing, long term. The potential for that kind of doom and gloom season means 1) Jim Zorn is gone, perhaps front office lackey Vinny Cerrato as well (fingers crossed on the latter). If the Redskins fans are lucky, Danny will see the light, higher a legit GM/team President to run the ship while he focuses on making movies with Tom Cruise and not running his Six Flags investment into the ground. Of course, none of the elite coaching options will view the Redskins as a viable opportunity even if they get paid with no string QB in place which is why...2) losing gets them in better shape to draft their QB of the future. The free agent pool looks light for passers at the moment Jason Campbell is not looking like anything more than a competent, but uninspiring QB. Whether it is Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy or someone that comes out of the woodworks, the Redskins gig will look MUCH more attractive to the Mike Shanahan's and Jon Gruden's of the world with a young passer to mold.

It is hard to ever root for your team to fail, especially this early in the season, but any Redskins fan who truly want the franchise to rebound for the long haul needs to start rooting for a 3-13 season...

Ok, on to the weekly picks, which of course are always for informational purposes only. Also, the fantasy comments, which are simply the musings of a fantasy writer who spent way to much this week worrying about whom Cleveland would start at QB because he has Braylon Edwards and is tired of seeing a single digit number next to his name in the fantasy box score and do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com...

Last week: 11-5 straight, 10-6 spread

Overall: 34-14 straight; 28-20 spread

Houston 27 Oakland 20 (+9): Steve Slaton topped double digit fantasy points last week for the first time this season with 102 total yards, but despite his Barry Sanders-like moves, he still has not found the end zone nor provided anything close to what fantasy owners were hoping for when they drafted him in the top-15. The good news is that the Texans offense has been prolific the last two games so Slaton will have opportunities, perhaps even around the goal line following Chris Brown's late game fumble. The upcoming schedule is a mixed bag, though he is a must start against the Raiders. Stay the course with the second-year back...Zach Miller caught six passes for 96 yards in the season opener, but the JaMarcus Russell experience has held him down to two receptions for 17 yards since. Expect Miller to be more involved against a Texans secondary that is on their third SS on the season. If not, it will be time to send Miller to the waivers until Russell is sent to the bench...

Tennessee 31 (-3) Jacksonville 27: Lendale White became everyone's favorite plug in play option last season when he scored touchdowns in the first four games and 10 through six games. The same cannot be said this season as the former tequila lover has only score and has not cracked 30 yards in a game this year. If another owner thinks White remains a weekly flex/RB2 play and will deal fair compensation, make the deal...This is a good week to play members of the Jags passing game, Mike Sims-Walker in most formats and David Garrard, Torry Holt and even Marcedes Lewis as bye week options. The Titans pass defense has allowed an average of 297 yards through the air in three games. Sims-Walker should be owned in nearly all leagues and one more good game should give him the tag as the Jags #1 receiver, especially if Holt does significantly improve on his 12-169 totals on the year.

New England 24 (-2) Baltimore 20: Now this is a matchup...Fred Taylor took the reins of the Pats backfield last week and remains the best bet going forward, but Kevin Faulk should be the top backfield weapon against the stingy Ravens defense. If Wes Welker misses another week, Faulk could be close to posting double digit receptions...Willis McGahee owners should continue to ride the hot hand, but his trade value may not be higher the rest of the season. Note that while McGahee had another big week with two scores, he had only seven carries and the Ravens schedule to this point as been rather kind to say the least.

Cleveland 23 (+6) Cincinnati 21: Upset of the week! This is not an X's and O's pick, but a gut feel. Coming off their upset division win over the Steelers in Week 3 and with the NFC North leading Baltimore Ravens on deck in Week 5, it would not be surprising to see them look past arguably the worst team in the NFL this week. Factor in the Browns are beyond desperate for a win and would love to get it done against their in-state rival and this looks like a perfect trap game...Cedric Benson, who shockingly ranks 3rd in rush yards, should crank out another big game for the Bengals despite the loss...With Jamal Lewis looking doubtful and Braylon Edwards expected to have his hands full with Bengals shutdown corner Leon Hall, Jerome Harrison will be the main offensive weapon for the Browns. Look for 15-22 touches for 85-95 yards and a score, making him my deep sleeper fantasy play of the week.

NY Giants 27 (-8.5) Kansas City 10: As mentioned in this week's "Deep League Pickups" article, the Giants' Kevin Boss makes for a nice bye week filler this week for Tony Gonzalez and Brent Celek owners. Though he has only six receptions for 102 yards on the year, Boss now faces a Chiefs defense that has allowed Todd Heap (5-74-1) and Celek (8-104-1) to post impressive stat lines...The hype surrounding Matt Cassel's trade to the Chiefs outkicked the reality of the KC situation, especially their horrid offensive line, but the same could be said for the negative vibes following his two lackluster performances. While trying to learn a new system, Cassel missed most of the preseason with an injury and the early season schedule has not been kind for the Chiefs offense. Do not consider starting him anytime soon, but the second half of the schedule offers more opportunities and by then Cassel and coach Todd Haley should be more comfortable with one another.

Chicago 30 Detroit 21 (+10): So much of the fantasy focus has been on waiver wire darlings Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox, but Devin Hester has quietly been the consistent weapon the Bears were hoping he would become. Hester has caught 4, 4 and 5 passes in his first three games with a score and at least 76 receiving yards in two games. Better in non-PPR leagues, but Hester is inching closer to becoming a WR2 starter in all leagues...Bryant Johnson never quite put it all together with the Cardinals, but he is getting the job done so far with the Lions. As long as Calvin Johnson is lined up on the other side, the other Johnson makes for a spot WR3 play on a team that will be forced to throw most weeks.

Washington 24 (-7.5) Tampa Bay 14: If you have been holding out hope that your Redskins skill players will get the job done with any consistency, consider this game to be your line of demarcation. The Bucs defense, especially the secondary, has been hapless to this point so Chris Cooley and Santana Moss are all solid plays while Jason Campbell is a fine QB2 or low-end starter. With that said, this offense is looking among the worst in the league and only Cooley remains among the elite at his position. Clinton Portis will be a sell-high candidate if he rocks the Bucs this week, though late word is that he missed practice on Friday and is only 50-50 to play...Josh Johnson has some long-term sleeper type ability, Cadillac Williams should get plenty of touches with Derrick Ward expected to be limited or out, but you want to avoid all Bucs skill players this week if possible against a solid Redskins defense.

Indianapolis 34 (-10.5) Seattle 23: Donald Brown has not been a massive hit, but he has looked quicker and better overall than Joseph Addai. This should continue to be a split backfield for a few more weeks, but eventually the Colts will give Brown more touches, making Addai a player you want to consider moving if you can get a comparable RB now...Seneca Wallace will not have Colts top pass rusher Dwight Freeney breathing down his neck, but his presence in the lineup tamps down expectations for all the Seahawks skill players.

New Orleans 28 NY Jets 24 (+7): A reader this week asked via email which of the two quarterbacks in this game should he start, using Brees' off-week in Week 3 as the basis for considering Mark Sanchez. Repeat after me: unless he is playing in a blizzard, you should never, never, never bench Drew Brees. The same cannot be said for his top receiver Marques Colston, who faces the uber-tough Darrelle Revis this week. Stick with Colston if you do not have comparable options, but otherwise this looks like a good week to sit him...Leon Washington has been getting more touches than expected. That should continue this week as the Jets use him as a safety valve against the Saints heavy blitz and Washington delivers with a long touchdown.

Buffalo 16 (-1.5) Miami 10: Can Trent Edwards actually throw the ball outside the hashmarks? It sure does not appear so as Terrell Owens and Lee Evans have become almost non-factors in the passing game. Still, do not buy into Josh Reed even if he was the top producing receiver last week. The Dolphins secondary is beatable so use Owens and Evans as you would normally this week...The Chad Henne era should be good for Ted Ginn down the line as the speedster will finally be able to cut it loose deep with the strong-armed QB, something he was unable to do with the light tossing Pennington.

San Francisco 27 St. Louis 20 (+9.5): Vernon Davis may not ever reach his lofty first-round draft pick status, but he is in line for back-to-back productive weeks. After two touchdowns in Week 3, Davis could find the end zone again versus a soft Rams defense that has had troubles with tight ends this year...As silly as this sounds, the Rams passing game is probably better off with the strong-armed Kyle Boller at quarterback then the beat up Marc Bulger. It will not help wins and losses, but Boller's ability to go deep should help the disappointing Donnie Avery regain some fantasy value if the former Ravens QB gets the start.

Denver 23 (+3) Dallas 20: This week starts the legit season for the Broncos, who have benefitted from a light schedule so far. They are not a team worthy of their 3-0 record, but the defense is much improved and Kyle Orton simply wins games. Look for Orton and his quartet of receivers to get theirs against the Cowboys ordinary secondary...The Monday night game showed why Tashard Choice and not Felix Jones was the handcuff back for Marion Barber owners to grab. Jones has crazy ability, but simply cannot stay healthy with a heavy dose, while Choice has had no problems running early and often behind the Cowboys massive line. Even with Barber back this week, Choice is a worthy flex option.

Pittsburgh 24 San Diego 20 (+6): With Willie Parker looking like he will be sidelined in Week 4, Mewelde Moore suddenly becomes a flex or perhaps even a RB2 play in the deepest of leagues. Simply put, the Steelers ground game remains curious and Rashard Mendenhall has not impressed when given looks. Expect Moore to see more snaps, especially in the second half in what should be a tight affair...When does Chris Chambers get his picture on the side of a milk carton? No catches in two of three games and only went for 2-30 in the other. Seriously, what happened here? Didn't we all think he would become a star once he got away from the hapless QB's he played with in Miami?

Minnesota 27 Green Bay 24 (+3.5): The lack of production out of Bernard Berrian makes one wonder if Brett Favre can actually throw the deep pass, the route in which Berrian has made his living on. Until Favre shows he can, Berrian must stay on your bench except for bye week situations. Do not expect more than spotty production from Berrian this season...Beyond the fact that Aaron Rodgers is my fantasy QB in one league, I am soooo rooting for him to out produce Favre in their mano y mano matchup. He gets it done with three scores, but the Vikes run defense, home field and AP gets them the W.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)