Best Bets for Week 11 of the NFL season

Who will win, step up and get beat down in Week 11 of the NFL season...

These fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands because the heated arguments earlier this week about why Bill Belichick was right to have gone for it have died down...

Last week: 9-6 straight, 9-6 spread

Overall: 96-50 straight; 76-67-1 spread

Home team in CAPS

CAROLINA 23 (-3) Miami 16: Hate starting the week with a loss. All I can say is that every time I pick the Panthers to win a game, I must push all thoughts of Jake Delhomme out of my head beforehand because in the end I am always shocked that I sided with that guy...

JACKSONVILLE 30 (-8) Buffalo 17: Don't look now but the Jags, the only team with a winning record that has had scored fewer points than they have allowed, will be 6-4 after this win. MJD is in line for another monster game going up against the Bills 32nd ranked run defense and Mike Sims-Walker keeps the party going with yet another long score...Far from the only reason the Bills season has come unraveled, but their offense has not looked the same since Marshawn Lynch took over for Fred Jackson as the primary running back. Jackson was more involved last week and while it didn't prevent another loss, I think it could be the start of getting this backfield closer to a 50-50 or at least 60-40 split. Anything to keep the ball out of Ryan Fitzpatrick's hands.

Pittsburgh 28 KANSAS CITY 20 (+10): Yes, the suspension of Dwayne Bowe is a big loss to the Chiefs already punchless offense, but Chris Chambers has the look of someone ready to go on an Antonio Bryant circa 2008 type run. Keep him active as a WR3 this week even against the Steelers' rugged secondary as the Chiefs will likely go pass-heavy once the run game is swallowed up by the Steel Curtain...Still not convinced that Rashard Mendenhall is the second coming of Franco Harris or anything, but he has done well against the slate of bottom feeders the Steelers have gone up against since he took over the starting gig. Expect a lot of downhill running in this one as Mendenhall scores twice, including a 30+ yarder, part of his 22-for-117 day.

Indianapolis 27 (-1) BALTIMORE 23: This seems like yet another trap game and in most cases, I would side with the hungry Ravens, especially after their less than impressive win over the Browns. However, don't mess with Peyton Manning. The Colts will eventually lose, just not sure it is this week...Austin Collie has lost that loving feeling with the end zone, being held out without a touchdown after scores in three straight games. Still, he has caught at least six passes in two of the last three weeks. As the Ravens and others begin to focus more on the suddenly scoring Pierre Garcon, Collie will hit pay-dirt, starting this week. Consider Collie as a WR3 against the Ravens' beatable secondary.

DETROIT 24 (-3.5) Cleveland 14: The Browns were sooooo bad on Monday night that I would take the Lions even if the line were a touchdown. Seriously, we have seen teams get old or simply struggle to find talent, but has there ever been a quicker dismantling of a once-viable unit than what the Browns did to their offense this season?...Calvin Johnson and Kevin Smith are the only strong starts in this game. Jamal Lewis should have more holes to run through than normal and an argument can be made to start either defense if you are lacking at that spot.

NY GIANTS 27 (-6.5) Atlanta 20: Sign me up for the one dominant team with a struggling offense that has talented players and is coming off a bye angle. Factor in that the Falcons defense ranks 26th against the run and 28th against the pass and any of your Giants, especially Brandon Jacobs, Steve Smith and Eli Manning, are worthy plays this week...Despite facing the depleted Giants secondary, I still would have a hard time starting Matt Ryan after his recent run of less than impressive fantasy numbers. Assuming you have a comparable option (Garrard, Flacco) on your roster or can pick up a player with a strong matchup (Vince Young), I'd let Matty Ice cool his heels on your fantasy bench for another week.

GREEN BAY 24 (-6.5) San Francisco 16: The Packers as a group went all in last week in a must-win scenario against the Cowboys. One win may not spur a long winning streak, but I have been a Packers believer since the start of the year and Aaron Rodgers remains on fire so I'm sticking with them...Mike Singletary has the Niners on the right path, but the offense does not have enough firepower, at least with the improved but still below average Alex Smith, to compete with the high-scoring squads.

MINNESOTA 31 (-10.5) Seattle 17: Sidney Rice is the real deal and Adrian Peterson is unreal. Nothing that happens this week will change those thoughts. While AP racks up 120+ yards and a score on the ground, Rice does the same, though this score comes on a red zone target. Percy Harvin scores, though not sure if by land, air or special teams, while Chester Taylor gets into the action with a garbage-time touchdown...Justin Forsett was a hot pickup this week, but he will do more as a receiver (40+ yards) than on the ground (12-for-27) against the Williams Wall.

DALLAS 26 Washington 18 (+11): Ok, this game is either going to the final moments or the Cowboys pound their division rival. It all comes down to whether their Week 10 win over the Broncos propels the Redskins out of the NFL basement level and simply in with the also-rans. Long term, no, but against their rival they summon up just enough chutzpah (i.e. Ladell Betts again racks up over 100 total yards) to keep it close...of course the Redskins defense was getting torched before the Chris Simms extinguisher threw cold water all over the Broncos chances. Do not expect Tony Romo to do the same, as he finds Miles Austin and yes, Jason Witten for scores while Nick Folk lashes four field goals to secure the win.

***11/22 Noon update: No Albert Haynesworth means no chance for Skins. DALLAS 27 (-11) Washington 13.

New Orleans 34 (-11) TAMPA BAY 17: Trying to guess which Saints players will be the featured target each week has been as confounding as understanding how Counting Crows lead singer Adam Duritz still pulls in hot chicks. All we are prepared to say this week is that the Saints Olly Olly Oxen Free offense should have no problem scoring against the Bucs 29th ranked defense...

Arizona 34 (-9) ST. LOUIS 20: Kudos to the Rams for mustering up all the energy they could to stay within a touchdown of the Saints. Of course the realization of just how truly bad they are came when all the pundits and fans alike gushed at the close, yet still losing result. Teams that bad do not sustain even mediocrity for two weeks straight. Plus, who doesn't think Kurt Warner wants to hop back into Doc Brown's DeLorean and go a little "Greatest Show on Turf" in front of his former fan base. Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald top 80 yards plus score, while Beanie Wells continues to establish himself with 16 carries for 68 yards and a goal line touchdown...Donnie Avery is the one non-SJax bright spot for the Rams and with their second half likely turning into a pass, pass, pass attack in an attempt to stay close, the hot trending play continues from Avery.

NEW ENGLAND 27 NY Jets 20 (+10.5): Even with the Patriots about to move into "expletive " mode following their Sunday night meltdown (the blowing of the lead, not the going for it on 4th), the Jets have shown they are not afraid of this offensive juggernaut. Jerricho Cotchery has another solid outing with 75+ yards and a score and CB Darrelle Revis will hound Randy Moss, but Tom Brady and Wes Welker run circles around the rest of the Jets secondary and the Pats defense does not wilt against the rookie QB...

As for last week, here is all I will say...Imagine you are the Pats before the game starts and you are presented with a hypothetical, but the exact situation they ended up with, including the ball potentially going back to the great Peyton Manning. Then you ask your entire team, franchise, fan base and beat writers this question - which side of the ball do you want deciding the game for you? Does anyone really think the answer wouldn't be Tom Brady and the offense?

It is the emotion that messes with perspective in the heat of the moment. Would I have had the balls to go for it? Probably not. But that is more about my resolve and not wanting to look the fool than it is the intellectual decision to go for it (and keep the ball away from Peyton, period), which I cannot see how one could not at least understand, even if at the same time not feel frisky enough to actually make that call.

Cincinnati 20 OAKLAND 12 (+9.5): There is no hotter team then the Bengals, but look for a bit of a letdown after back-to-back division wins against serious competition. Cedric Benson is sounding iffy at best to play and Chad Ochocinco will see a lot of Nnamdi Asomugha, but Carson Palmer will still pick his spots and hits Lav Coles and Andre Caldwell for scores. Plus, as mentioned in previous posts, this is the first of the Bengals three week run against the NFL's worst, so their defense is a strong play...Bruce Gradkowski gets the start for the Raiders, but this QB switch does little to help them actually score. More yards in the passing game, yes, but not enough suddenly to use any of their offensive players more than I have to.

San Diego 23 (-6) DENVER 13: It is looking like all that praying from Broncos fans has not healed Kyle Orton in time for this week and you know what that means. Orton may still not be Jay Cutler in the eyes of some, but Chris Simms was not even JaMarcus Russell when he subbed in last week (updated 11/22 @ Noon)

Philadelphia 24 (-3) CHICAGO 20: The likely official start of the LeSean McCoy era begins in a game where the Eagles are damn close to must-win mode after two straight setbacks. With the expectation of a handful of breathtaking plays out of the backfield, consider McCoy a RB2 against a Bears defense ranked 21st in the league, though Andy Reid's inability to call a balanced offense limits his fantasy potential for now...For my thoughts on Jay Cutler, see Matt Ryan above. I would rank Cutler ahead of Ryan due his aggressive nature, but that is the same trait that has turned the former Bronco QB into a turnover machine in the red zone. Hard to see him shaking out of that mode against the ultra-aggressive Eagles defense, but Matt Forte and Greg Olsen bail Cutler out enough to help him post modest fantasy numbers.

Houston 28 Tennessee 24 (+4.5): A sneakily good MNF matchup, one that I will be watching with great interest with Chris Johnson, Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub going in the same league. CJ may have been overly optimistic when he said the Titans were going to close the season 10-0, but these are not the same Titans we saw get steamrolled earlier this season. There have been major improvements on both sides of the ball, but unless the NFL's leading rusher breaks off a few more long scores, I fear they will not have enough firepower to keep up with the Texans offense...The Ryan Moats-Steve Slaton debate rages on, but I would look to avoid both against a steady Titans run defense. If I had to pick, I see Slaton being more effective in the passing game than Moats on the ground.

Survivor Picks: These are my personal picks each week for my various (cough, cough) pools

Week 11 - Jacksonville (This is my least confident call in weeks, but I'll take my chances against a team (Buffalo) with a new coach and new QB. For the faint of heart, Minnesota, New Orleans and Pittsburgh are fine if you can still use them)

Week 10 - Minnesota (Obviously taking the Purple People Eaters against the toothless Lions isn't a tough call. Not sure I have the guts to pick the Dolphins. For those who don't mind going on the road, take the Saints)

Week 9 - Atlanta (A very sketchy week. Falcons matchup not ideal, playing a top-5 defense and coming off a bye, but better than taking Seahawks, Jaguars or Packers on the road)

Week 8 - Chicago (Colts are good if available. Chargers are ok, but hard to trust the Bolts and it is a division game)

Week 7 - Indianapolis (the Colts and Pats are the only worthy options this week, even with the road and neutral sites)

Week 6 - Green Bay (Jacksonville against the Rams is the gutsier call, but another week of strong options)

Week 5 - Philadelphia (though there are waaaaaay to many good options this week so everyone "should" advance)

Week 4 - San Francisco (Chicago is a close second)

Week 3 - Baltimore

Week 2 - Washington, Green Bay (and one pool goes by the wayside)

Week 1 - New Orleans, Baltimore