Best Bets for NFL Wildcard Weekend
Who will win, step up and get beat down during the NFL's Wildcard Weekend....
As always, these fantasy musings do not reflect the opinion of FFToolbox.com, but just a solo fantasy writer with too much time on his hands now that he no longer has to worry about trying to get Jim Zorn fired. ...and of course, the picks are for informational purposes only...
Also, note that the FFToolbox.com podcast will be live this week, breaking down the NFL Playoffs and discussing the latest NFL news and rumors as they pertain to the fantasy world. Down the line we will have shows previewing the Super Bowl and breaking down NFL Free Agency, the combine and NFL Draft.
Last week: 13-6 straight, 8-10-1 spread
Overall (thru Week 14): 174-89 straight; 131-128-4 spread
CINCINNATI 17 (-2) NY Jets 13: Both teams want to do the same thing - run the football and play tough defense - but the Jets are executing much better right now. While the Bengals will get Cedric Benson back, the Jets have their own top notch RB in Thomas Jones, who posted career-highs in rush yards and touchdowns and he runs behind arguably the best offensive line in football. The Bengals will get run-stuffing DT Domata Peko back, but the Jets sport top ranked overall defense. The Bengals have the best receiver in this game, but Chad Ochocinco will be blanketed by Jets uber-corner Darrelle Revis. And yet...QB Mark Sanchez starts for the Jets, who seem to be scoring and winning in spite of the rookie passer throwing for less than 155 yards in five of his last six starts. The playoffs are not historically kind to first year QBs and Sanchez has not looked nearly as comfortable in the pocket as Joe Flacco did for the Ravens in a similar spot last season. Carson Palmer is not exactly lighting up the scoreboard, but I prefer the veteran in the postseason, Factor in the emotion from the tragic loss of Chris Henry and the wife of DC Mike Zimmer and the Bengals bounce back at home behind Benson's 7th 100-yard game of the season.
Philadelphia 27 (+4) DALLAS 24: Heading into Week 17, the Eagles were my pick to be the NFC Champ, but they looked nothing like a top notch contender last week against the Cowboys, who used a dominating performance from their defensive front seven and a strong run game to control the game. The loss of Eagles center Jamaal Jackson is magnified against the Cowboys front seven, and the Eagles are mistakenly trying to work Brian Westbrook back into the lineup. And yet...they had their opportunities in the deep passing game last week but the inconsistent/Mr.Hyde version Donovan McNabb showed up. The Eagles, particularly against this Cowboys team with power lines on both sides of the ball, need to play with the lead so McNabb needs to hit big plays, especially early. I say he does, finding Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin for scores in that order. Tony Romo does not lose the game for the Boys, but the Eagles blitz causes problems and the early lead takes a heavy dose of Marion Barber off the table. Plus, according to Ron Jaworski, Andy Reid is 7-0 in first round playoff games. Let the moaning and groaning about the Cowboys franchise begin!
NEW ENGLAND 21 Baltimore 20 (+3): We all know about the loss of Wes Welker, but for at least one week, the Pats will not miss him, much. While the Ravens likely double and at times triple team Randy Moss to help cover up for their leaky secondary, Julian Edelman hauls in 10 passes for 107 yards. While Fred Taylor takes over as the primary ball carrier, Kevin Faulk is the most productive back in this one and even Ben Watson shows a pulse with a couple of grabs. Plus the Pats get their full arsenal of defensive linemen back as they try to remain undefeated at home this season. And yet...the Ravens ground game is clicking and will keep the game close by controlling the clock. Plus, never, ever, never count out a Ray Lewis defense, Sadly for him, the secondary is simply too banged up to stop the Pats when needed and the Bill Belichicks survive and advance.
Green Bay 27 (+1) ARIZONA 20: The NFC has never been more wide open than it is the year and a legitimate case can be made for all six squads to advance to the Super Bowl. Both squads in this game have high-octane passing attacks and playmakers on defense that have shown the ability to step up when called upon. And yet...while the Packers are rolling into the playoffs with a 7-1 stretch, the Cards have been rather pedestrian over the last month, including losing to the Niners and struggling to beat the lowly Lions. Even if we give them a pass for laying down against the Packers last week, it doesn't change the fact that Packers defense and offensive line have been much improved over the second half of the season. Everyone talks about Aaron Rodgers - and rightfully so - but it is the growth in these two areas that has turned the Packers from a 4-4 squad to the hottest team in the conference. Rodgers throws for two scores, Grant breaks a for a long TD and Charles Woodson keeps Larry Fitzgerald in check. Next up, WWIII with Brett Favre on deck...